Dracula 发表于 2016-9-30 12:28
日韩拥有核武器首先会将东亚局势变得非常不稳定。对美国没有任何好处。而且日韩都有核武器了，核武器成为 ...
日韩拥有核武器，可以形成局部MAD，实际上更加稳定，当然不是一般人们所希望的那种稳定。日韩核武器的目标是朝鲜和中国，对美国有利无害。核武器早就不是五常专有的啦，伯爵不会不知道吧？核武器的泛滥已经不是一个条约能约束的，朝鲜就是例子。只要有足够的motivaion，还会有更多的核国家，这是美国无法阻止的，好事不好事已经次要了。
晨枫 发表于 2016-10-1 02:35
日韩拥有核武器，可以形成局部MAD，实际上更加稳定，当然不是一般人们所希望的那种稳定。日韩核武器的目 ...
日韩没有核武器，美国也给他们核保护，本来就是MAD。日韩如果拥有核武器，中国势必视为是对自己安全的重大挑衅和威胁，肯定会激化东亚的局势。现在发展核武器在国际社会还是有很大的stigma，美国和联合国全面制裁朝鲜伊朗，理由就是它们搞核武器。日本韩国如果拥有核武器，这种stigma就没了，对美国敌视的这些国家发展核武器也就变得理所应当。而且拥有核武器的国家越多，核战争发生的可能性就越大，怎么对美国都不是好事。
Dracula 发表于 2016-9-30 12:48
日韩没有核武器，美国也给他们核保护，本来就是MAD。日韩如果拥有核武器，中国势必视为是对自己安全的重 ...
你的思维还停留在美国包打天下，而且美国还能够包打天下。日韩拥有核武器，当然会激化东亚安全态势，但那是朝韩、日中之间的激化，对美国并无直接影响。美国提供核保护伞是一个负担，而且有可能把美国拉进自己不希望的战争。从security provider退步为security guarantor，美国的决策灵活性大得多，进可以攻，退可以受。不管你是不是同意，美国已经到了考虑退守的时候了。security downloading会是未来的主要政策选择，事实上，美国在欧洲已经在做了。
Dracula 发表于 2016-10-1 00:35
从第一次辩论结束后进行的一系列polling的结果来看，希拉里确实是在第一次辩论中获胜。在national poll里她 ...
Trump这人看来实在是管不住自己，他在辩论的表现不太好，就应该岔开话题，集中火力希拉里的薄弱的地方，没想到过了3天多，还是耿耿于怀，觉都睡不下，今天凌晨3点到5点关于Miss Universe那件事连发4条tweet。尤其是关于sex tape的那条，特别salacious，新闻里全是关于这个。现在看来至少未来几天希拉里的优势还会扩大。现在离大选不到6个星期，他的形势还落后，新闻多集中在这种话题1天，对他都不利。
另外Fox News刚公布的poll，希拉里领先3个百分点，9月15日的poll希拉里只领先1个百分点，这也进一步提供证据，希拉里确实是赢了第一次辩论。现在希拉里的形势已经恢复到了8月底的时候，优势已经比较保险，民主党可以稍稍松口气。
晨枫 发表于 2016-10-1 02:17
希拉里的决策能力可以从她对伊拉克战争的投票看出，她没有政治远见，只有政治辩风向。她要是上任后来一堆 ...
晨老大，言之有理。不仅如此，我觉得她挺冷血的。
今天早上丢的回帖里关于她的一段，我提到最近国会听证时，某议员对Wells Fargo CEO 的 评价，"gutless leadership" ，用在她在Benghazi 的行事上，无比恰当。看你的帖子又想起来。
合久必分，分久必合，trump 有些主张有孤立主义的倾向，而适当的孤立主义也许是对当今过热的全球化的一付镇静剂。。
晨枫 发表于 2016-10-1 03:08
你的思维还停留在美国包打天下，而且美国还能够包打天下。日韩拥有核武器，当然会激化东亚安全态势，但那 ...
问题是核武器不同于常规武器。一旦东亚爆发热核战争，核污染可以顺着洋流和大气环流影响美帝的。
五月 发表于 2016-9-30 19:57
问题是核武器不同于常规武器。一旦东亚爆发热核战争，核污染可以顺着洋流和大气环流影响美帝的。 ...
还是比美国自己出动打核战争强N倍了。
晨枫 发表于 2016-10-1 10:03
还是比美国自己出动打核战争强N倍了。
但是只要稍微控制一下，东亚可以保持无核状态呀。核武器是最大的不对称武器。如果小国拥有核武器，美帝的航母F22 35 14 15 18 16基本全归零。小国根本不听招呼了。况且小国拥有核武，不但小国自己可以用，还可以扩散到美国的其他敌人手中。如果一枚核武用集装箱船装载，在纽约港引爆，这种前景美帝是承受不起的。
五月 发表于 2016-9-30 20:14
但是只要稍微控制一下，东亚可以保持无核状态呀。核武器是最大的不对称武器。如果小国拥有核武器，美帝 ...
东亚的朝鲜已经有核武了，中国早就有核武了。
晨枫 发表于 2016-9-30 21:26
东亚的朝鲜已经有核武了，中国早就有核武了。
美国如果真的允许日韩拥核，中国极有可能被迫对日韩发出极其强硬的警告；如果对方一意孤行，我觉得中国可以打的牌包括突然出手拿下朝鲜三胖，这样可以先行消除日韩拥核的必要性和“法理”基础，同时也是敲山震虎。但是这样极端的动作，其政治和军事后果都是难以预料的。中国这样出手以后，如果东亚走向日韩向中国屈服，中国全面控制东亚局势，美国的国际政治利益会严重受损；如果东亚局势失控，中日韩连带其他国家会卷入热战，美国难道就能独善其身么？基于这些多米诺效应，我觉得美国允许日韩拥核是非常冒险的举动，不符合大国求稳的倾向。古往今来，只有小国才会剑走偏锋，以求乱中求存或乱中取胜，大国一贯都是打正战，求稳，控制牌。
晨枫 发表于 2016-10-1 02:35
日韩拥有核武器，可以形成局部MAD，实际上更加稳定，当然不是一般人们所希望的那种稳定。日韩核武器的目 ...
三哥小巴小以都有了核武，也没见美国怎么地了。
现在金三也有了，美国又能怎么地？
煮酒正熟 发表于 2016-9-30 21:03
美国如果真的允许日韩拥核，中国极有可能被迫对日韩发出极其强硬的警告；如果对方一意孤行，我觉得中国可 ...
中国出兵朝鲜“消核”就像当年苏联出兵中国“消核”一样的思路，想想而已，可行性非常低。如果成功，除了中国人自己为自己叫好，没人会为中国人叫好，反而一致指责中国“侵略”；如果失败，那中国更是世界公敌。
美国不是“容许”日韩拥核，而是朝鲜拥核后，无法控制局势了，只有这样的矮子里的长子式决策了。要美国用核威慑吓唬朝鲜是一回事，要美国与朝鲜对甩核弹就是另一回事了，美国要算计一下是不是值得，尤其这核弹一甩起来，可能不限于朝鲜。
Dracula 发表于 2016-10-1 02:48
日韩没有核武器，美国也给他们核保护，本来就是MAD。日韩如果拥有核武器，中国势必视为是对自己安全的重 ...
伯爵，在核武器的问题上，我同意晨大的观点。现在，核武器的门槛越来越低，理论上没有障碍， 只是在材料上有限制，中等大小的国家，只要努把力，都能搞出核武器。朝鲜才10万平方公里，两千多万人，经济惨成那样，还是跟中国当年一样，勒紧裤带把核武器搞出来了。
所以，不是美国不想控制核武，是没办法，控制不住。美国控制国际事务的时代已经过去了。
Dracula 发表于 2016-10-1 01:54
你举得信口开河的例子是演戏，搞政治都要这样，像Trump的盖一堵美丽的墙，让墨西哥支付，他自己也知道不 ...
将来中美要是开战，作为总统的Trump绝对会对反华人的情绪煽风点火，重演二战时监禁日裔的那一幕都不是不可能。
这与某个领导人没关系，即使希拉里上台，监禁华人也是必然。从政治上讲，这种政策政治不正确；从实务和客观效果上讲，美国这么做是对的，大大的对。
美国精英层不这么做，就是对美国的极大犯罪，是要上史书，落个宋襄公的骂名。
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-2 21:20 编辑
贴一篇跑题的文章。棒球季后赛很快就要开打了。Chicago Cubs是美国职业体育里乃至美国文化里futility的象征。上一次赢得世界大赛总冠军是1908年，上一次打进决赛是1945年。但今年常规赛他们却取得了全联盟最好的成绩，按照有些指标甚至可以说是有史以来最好的球队之一。George Will是美国有名的保守派政治评论家，我经常读他在华盛顿邮报的专栏（这次大选他也反Trump）。他还是有名的棒球迷，我还看过他写的一本关于棒球的书。他是Cubs的球迷，在Ken Burns的纪录片Baseball里出场好多次，里面有句quote特别有趣
I grew up in central Illinois midway between Chicago and St. Louis and I made an historic blunder. All my friends became Cardinals fans and grew up happy and liberal and I became a Cubs fan and grew up embittered and conservative.
刚才我读到他在华盛顿邮报上的一篇关于Cubs的文章，觉得很有意思，转贴过来
Why all the love for the Chicago Cubs’ woes?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-all-the-love-for-the-chicago-cubs-woes/2016/09/30/bd7f9d88-866f-11e6-92c2-14b64f3d453f_story.html?utm_term=.a0bd144dde56
https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/09/30/Editorial-Opinion/Images/Cubs_Pirates_Baseball-a86ef-1695.jpg?uuid=TMhlTIdbEeaSwhS2Tz1FPw
“Lots o’ folks confuse bad management with destiny.”
— Kin Hubbard
The good news, a commodity in short supply, is that Americans are about to get a respite from the inundating Niagara of candidates’ blather. The bad news is that the respite will be a tsunami of Cubs Gush, which will slosh from sea to shining sea. So, brace yourself for a surfeit of dubious sociology and worse metaphysics. There is something about baseball, and especially about the Chicago National League Ball Club, that triggers — consider this column a trigger warning — incontinent rhapsodizing and nonsensical theorizing by otherwise sensible citizens.
The mesmerizing arithmetic of the moment is that the Cubs last won the World Series in 1908, when Teddy Roosevelt was president. Today, the nation that is selecting its 45th president is as distant from 1908 as that year was from the second presidency, that of John Adams.
In the sport of the long season, after playing 162 games in 183 days, a team is what its record says it is, and the Cubs have baseball’s best record . This year’s team is vastly more talented than the team that made the Cubs’ last appearance in the World Series, in 1945, when many of the major league’s best players were still wearing military uniforms. (The Tigers had enough of them to defeat the Cubs in seven games.) From 1946 through 2014, just before today’s team materialized, the Cubs were 714 games — almost 4½ 162-game seasons — under .500 (5,095 wins, 5,809 losses).
Ethicists say losing builds character. Cubs fans, who are mostly scar tissue, say they already have quite enough character, thank you. Dime-store anthropologists brood about how a World Series win might puncture the mystique of the “lovable losers.” But what is lovable about consistent failure? For that, Americans have government.
Some Cubs fans, luxuriating in losing, have taken a perverse pride in their team’s colorful failures, such as third baseman Don Hoak striking out six times in a 17-inning game. Or second baseman Glenn Beckert stranding 12 runners in a nine-inning game. Or Lou “The Mad Russian” Novikoff trying to steal third base — with the bases loaded. (He explained that he got “a good jump on the pitcher.”) Or shortstop Lennie Merullo making four errors in one inning . (He had a son born that day who was nicknamed Boots.) Or pitcher Dickie Noles being traded for himself. (Sent to the Tigers for a player to be named later, he promptly surrendered a bases-loaded triple, so the Tigers designated him the player named later and shipped him back to Chicago.)
Some Cubs fans seem to relish theories about how curses or karma have destined the Cubs for failure. Actually, for many years the team’s management, having inherited a dandy ballpark but having no clue how to build a good team, decided to market Wrigley Field’s charms: The grass would be so green, the ivy so lush, the beer so cold and the sunshine (there were no night games until 1988) so warm that no one would care what the scoreboard said. Phil Wrigley, son of William, for whom the ballpark is named, even encouraged calling it Cubs Park rather than Wrigley Field because people like going to a park. This, he said, would appeal to “people not interested in baseball.” Good grief.
Wrigley’s bleachers became the best singles bar on the North Side, and the ballpark became a health resort for visiting teams. Then, in 2009, the Ricketts family, which did not make enough money to buy the Cubs by being indifferent to excellence, turned the team over to son Tom, who met his wife in Wrigley’s bleachers but who is agreeably unsentimental about the cult of futility.
So, all you purveyors of Cubs Gush, listen up. Referring to Wrigley Field as a “baseball cathedral” should be a flogging offense. It is just a nice little place on the North Side where men (calling major leaguers “boys of summer” should be punishable by keelhauling) work hard at a demanding and dangerous craft. And Cubs fans, loyal through thin and thin, you must remember this: Your team at least won the Cold War. For years, it held spring training on Catalina Island near Los Angeles. So, when a Des Moines radio sportscaster named “Dutch” Reagan went to report on them, he stopped in Hollywood for a screen test, and the Soviet Union was doomed. So there.
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-3 13:50 编辑
昨天美国大选最大的新闻是Trump在1995年损失惨重，赔了接近10亿美元，很可能过去18年里一直用这个deduction，就没交过联邦收入所得税。让觉得很有意思的媒体对这件事的报道，左派媒体像纽约时报把火力集中在Trump没交过税这点。偏右接近于工商界的华尔街时报则认为这个deduction是理所应当，Trump用这点不交税无可非议，但是觉得一下子赔十亿美元的人能自称自己是smart也是件挺搞笑的事。
这件事本身到未必对Trump有很大的伤害。但是这次大选的规律是媒体的聚焦转向谁，谁的支持率就会下降。现在离大选只有5个星期，Trump形势还落后，他的时间主要花来为自己辩解而不是攻击希拉里，对他来说就是件不利的事。
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-10-4 03:25 编辑
刚看到的，Trump团队的incompetence确实让人惊讶。（文章里提到的这条tweet已经给删了）
https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2016/10/WillieHorton/56fc6fa8a.png
Sean Spicer, the head strategist and communications director for the Republican National Committee, today on Twitter.
In the language of politics, to call a strategy a “Willie Horton-Style Attack” is to say that it’s race-baiting, vicious, and misleading. The reference is to two notorious ads, “Weekend Pass” and “Revolving Door,” used by George H.W. Bush’s Republicans in 1988 to attack his Democratic rival Michael Dukakis. You can see them and learn more details after the jump. This isn’t something normal people would brag about.
Yet just this morning, via tweet, the “strategist” and communications director for the Republican National Committee, Sean Spicer, announces that the party is about to kick off just such an attack, on Tim Kaine! Good lord.
By definition, this kind of attack strategy has been used before, as have smear campaigns through the history of politics. But the perpetrators used to deny them. The whole point of the “dog whistle” metaphor was that only the intended part of your audience would hear the message you were trying to send. Thus the George H.W. Bush campaign could pretend that the Willie Horton ad was strictly about criminal justice; it’s just coincidence that the criminal whose face they used happened to be a rough-looking black man.
So for Spicer to come right out with a proud-seeming announcement must mean either that he has lost his mind, or that the dynamics of his campaign and party now make this seem a sensible thing to say.
Here’s a screenshot of the original Willie Horton, as seen on TV—and then, why he’s not really “Willie.”
https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/posts/2016/10/Willie2/091ea3265.png
This quote from Horton after the ad came out underscores its intention:
The fact is, my name is not “Willie.” It’s part of the myth of the case. The name irks me. It was created to play on racial stereotypes: big, ugly, dumb, violent, black—“Willie.” I resent that. They created a fictional character—who seemed believable, but who did not exist.
“Weekend Passes” was produced by a GOP PAC. Here’s the full ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y
“Revolving Door” was the handiwork of the Bush campaign itself, including advisors Lee Atwater and—wait for it— Roger Ailes. Here it is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmwhdDv8VrM
***
Now the point: to run a “Willie Horton-style” campaign is bad enough. It’s meant to inflame racial resentments and fears. But saying you’re going to do it, and hailing that fact as an “exclusive,” travels from the realm of the reprehensible to the idiotic. It’s like an infomercial that begins, “We’re pushing a new scam!” Or like Bill Cosby showing up for a date and saying, “One sip of this drink and you’ll be out cold.”
They’re doing something nasty, and they’re doing it in the stupidest possible way.
Imagine what this team would be like in power.
Dracula 发表于 2016-9-29 04:30
Trump的经济方案是一方面大规模减税，这是共和党的传统政策，一方面增加开支包括基础设施建设，对social...
和和，伯爵还真是建制派啊。
好，我对建制派的观感一下子就好了不少了。
Dracula 发表于 2016-10-3 13:34
昨天美国大选最大的新闻是Trump在1995年损失惨重，赔了接近10亿美元，很可能过去18年里一直用这个deduction ...
我觉得川总在整个体系精心设计的这么一整套组合拳下，已经没戏了。
首先，辩论现在看来是失败了。八千五百万人看，有相当一部分应该是想看他倒底有没有＂总统相＂。后半段太糟糕了。
选美小姐是针对他性格弱点，SOMEHOW不能容忍一些女性。（这个相当的奇怪。。。）非常的不＂总统相＂，特别是选民已经进入＂大选模式＂了。
税表是传说中的＂硬伤＂，他的主要减税政策，立刻变成一个HARD－SELL。
最糟的可能是，他居然对税表硬伤没有准备，说什么我不交税因为我聪明。。。虽然法律上讲没问题，观感就有问题了。
现在５３８上已经几乎４比１了。
估计是西太四年，缝缝补补了。。。
cadgn 发表于 2016-10-4 15:09
我觉得川总在整个体系精心设计的这么一整套组合拳下，已经没戏了。
首先，辩论现在看来是失败了。八千五 ...
Miss Universe那件事反映的不仅是他对女性的态度，而且他上个星期五凌晨3点睡不着觉，干点什么不好啊。高尚一点的，思考一下国家大事，庸俗一点的，像Homer Simpson一样到冰箱里找点东西满足一下口福也行。他偏不依不饶非得跟那个选美小姐战到底，连发4条tweet，70岁了以总统候选人的身份号召大家去看sex tape（好像还不是真的），这实在不是一个总统应有的形象。Trump这次要还想赢得话，他的竞选团队得把他Android的手机没收掉。
我看到的消息说纽约时报还存着关于Trump的重磅炸弹没使，未来几个星期会连续曝光。现在的情况这个星期天的辩论变得极其重要，Trump要是再输了的话，真是会一溃千里，再没有翻身的可能性的了。
今天凌晨Julian Assange在网上举行发布会，本来说是要揭发关于希拉里的致命丑闻，让Trump的支持者非常兴奋，就是克林顿的支持者也有些担心。结果那个发布会就是他卖书和呼吁大家给他捐款，别的什么也没有。好多Trump的支持者凌晨2、3点钟不睡觉，坚持着看发布会，却什么也没等来，我刚才在网上看到的评论，他们很多气得破口大骂，前几天还觉得Assange揭发希拉里是英雄，现在觉得就应该把他干掉。本来对希拉里不利的可能的突发事件就是Wikileaks有什么致命的东西，现在看来这不过就是Assange成功的一次商业推销活动。Trump的机会实在是不多了。