Sichuluanhuang 发表于 2016-5-4 20:33
有头脑的政治家或战略家会站在政治外交的高度来评价候选人，但对美国普通选民，他们才不在乎什么外交层面 ...
歪个楼 为啥翻译成 川普 或者 特朗普 当年西西河 山而王 翻译的 创普 不是更好的？
晨枫 发表于 2016-5-4 11:50
哈哈，时间倒拨8个月，那时特朗普能在共和党内胜出的赔率是多少？
我倒是觉得：特朗普的主要弱点在于大 ...
希拉里这仗不好打。搞不好，又要梦碎白宫了！最大的误判，恐怕在于精英与草根的认知区别。
晨大认为的川普的弱点，往往是他讨喜的优势。他和小布什有点类似，虽然有很多荒谬甚至低智商的表现，但很讨喜，不过搏君一笑而已！没人会真的当会事儿 。
并且，川普的很多观点，以精英的观点，从政治正确的角度，的确缺乏高度与道德，但是，这只是少部分精英的自我意淫。事实上，川普的讲话非常具有鼓动性，煽动性，而这一点，使他能够最大程度地动员起下层草根。
在精英嘴里，也许川普这叫煽动民粹，可是，草根就是这样认为，要出一口气，终于有人讲出了他们心里被憋屈很多年的真心话，原来被精英极力垄断的话语权，让草根无法讲话，还利用话语权的垄断，给草根套上“道德”与政治不正确的枷锁。
搁哪个草根身上，都TMD一肚子冤气。
回头来，奥巴马上台的口号就是“change"，而八年来，温文尔雅的施政并没有带来任何“change”，“华尔街占领运动”不温不火，无疾而终。大家等的不耐烦了！
精英在一点一点地消耗草根的耐心。
现在这个时代，是一个沉闷的时代，是一个求变前夜的时代，川普的胜出，我认为，概率在60%以上。
tanis 发表于 2016-5-4 12:28
对啊~ Trump经商的黑材料貌似到现在还没有什么人去挖掘？
这一点，以我的判断，除非准备把川普送进监狱，否则，共和民主两党都不会去挖掘。
这是在破坏游戏规则，会直接影响美国现行体制的合法性与正当性。结局就是共和民主两党，美国整个统治阶级等着“莱克星顿”的枪声再一次响起。
希拉里在女性那获得选票很多存疑，因为从小到大，女孩子的圈子是最复杂的！小团体太多。哈哈！
zilewang 发表于 2016-5-5 11:12
希拉里这仗不好打。搞不好，又要梦碎白宫了！最大的误判，恐怕在于精英与草根的认知区别。
晨大认为的川 ...
其实所谓一人一票的民主选举都是一种泄民愤的渠道，让普通人感觉自己能参与政治，意淫而已。并不指望这种选能选出好的政府。真正能保证选举质量的是候选人提名，这个过程是普通人参与不了的，也是保证选举质量的关键。无奈民主的游戏玩了那么些年都玩烂了，现在能出现的候选人都在比烂，说明大家都不想再竭尽全力来维护当前的游戏规则了。接下来的真就是需要在一团乱麻里形成新的格局。这个乱像，在美国足够强大的情况下就是革新，在够强大的情况下就是革命。面前看来应该还是革新的过程，但近几届的选举都会是精英和草根的群殴。
伯爵太理论派了，希拉里60:40大胜不可能出现。
本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2016-5-5 06:25 编辑
Sichuluanhuang 发表于 2016-5-5 00:04
其实所谓一人一票的民主选举都是一种泄民愤的渠道，让普通人感觉自己能参与政治，意淫而已。并不指望这种 ...
美国总统不算一人一票。只是各州里的一人一票。选州长倒算得上。
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-5-5 20:31 编辑
晨枫 发表于 2016-5-4 11:18
克鲁兹退选了，伯爵给评评，现在是否就希拉里对特朗普了？伯爵认为谁取胜的可能更大？ ...
The Electoral Map Looks Challenging for Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
If today’s general election polling holds true, Hillary Clinton will easily defeat Donald Trump.
Clinton 347， Trump 191
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2016/05/03/clinton-trump-map/e1cead54fbf85a89cae99c3a5340e89fe252f7e0/map2016-Artboard_1.png
Current national and battleground state polls have Mr. Trump trailing Mrs. Clinton by about 10 percentage points should they face off in the general election.
If those numbers hold, Mrs. Clinton would take all of the states that President Obama won in 2012, as well as North Carolina (which he won in 2008), putting her far over the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Mrs. Clinton currently fares worse than Mr. Obama only in New York, a state that she would win easily according to current polling.
This is how the map would look if Mr.Trump improved on his polling margin by five percentage points in each state.
Clinton 285, Trump 253
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2016/05/03/clinton-trump-map/e1cead54fbf85a89cae99c3a5340e89fe252f7e0/trump5-Artboard_1_copy.png
He would win Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but he would still lose the election.
Mr. Trump could win if he improves on his polling margin by 10 percentage points.
Clinton 233, Trump 305
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2016/05/03/clinton-trump-map/e1cead54fbf85a89cae99c3a5340e89fe252f7e0/trump10-Artboard_1_copy_2.png
In that scenario, Mr. Trump would win five additional battleground states that Mitt Romney lost in 2012, a big swing in the electoral map that would leave him with roughly 30 electoral votes to spare.
Closing large polling gaps in the time remaining is rare but certainly not unprecedented.
In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan in many polls this time of year. He went on to lose by 10 points.
（1980年卡特的支持率大降主要是因为伊朗人质危机。希拉里如果被起诉的话，会有类似的结果。）
leekai 发表于 2016-5-5 15:39
伯爵太理论派了，希拉里60:40大胜不可能出现。
我也认为可能性不大。不过二战后美国总统大选60:40只出现过2次，1964年约翰逊对Barry Goldwater，1972年尼克松对George McGovern。Goldwater和McGovern都是基层运动推出来的激进候选人，同Trump有可比性，因此我觉得这个可能性有，但是不大。
zilewang 发表于 2016-5-5 11:21
这一点，以我的判断，除非准备把川普送进监狱，否则，共和民主两党都不会去挖掘。
这是在破坏游戏规则， ...
2012年Obama的主要竞选策略就是攻击Mitt Romney在Bain Capital的经商记录，因此这根本谈不上是破坏游戏规则。另外Trump到现在还没有按惯例公布他的纳税记录。我估计倒不是他有什么违法行为怕被挖掘到，而是他的收入公布后会显示他的实际财富要比他吹嘘的少很多，他在商场上战无不胜的光环没了，不仅对这次大选不利，而且也会影响他未来的发财。
到处停留的叶子 发表于 2016-5-4 16:40
有一点很有趣，在我周围有选举权的男士中，大部分是要选共和党的，在我周围有选举权的女性，讨厌Trump的 ...
我一直投的民主党，而且克林顿当政时还说过以后若他太太竞选一定投她~~~时过境迁，今年本来要支持我儿子投给三德子。现在吗，如果川希对决，我可能会随着'草根'们投Trump一票~~~虽然他有可能会更烂，至少还有点可能会好的希望是不是？克太逐利的政客嘴脸可是看够啦~~~
Americans’ Distaste For Both Trump And Clinton Is Record-Breaking
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/
The Democratic primary will technically march on, but Hillary Clinton is almost certainly going to be her party’s nominee. Same with Donald Trump. And voters don’t appear thrilled at the prospect: Clinton and Trump are both more strongly disliked than any nominee at this point in the past 10 presidential cycles.
Normally, when we talk about candidate likability, we use favorability ratings, which combine “strongly favorable,” “somewhat favorable,” “somewhat unfavorable” and “strongly unfavorable.” But that didn’t work so well in the Republican primary, where Trump was able to win despite a relatively low net favorability rating because his “strongly favorable” rating with Republican primary voters was among the highest in the field. So let’s look at Trump and Clinton’s “strongly1 favorable” and “strongly unfavorable” ratings among general election voters.2
These are people who don’t just like or dislike the candidates, they really like or dislike them.
No past candidate comes close to Clinton, and especially Trump, in terms of engendering strong dislike a little more than six months before the election.
https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/enten-generaldislike-1.png?w=575&h=528
Clinton’s average “strongly unfavorable” rating in probability sample polls from late March to late April, 37 percent, is about 5 percentage points higher than the previous high between 19803 and 2012. Trump, though, is on another planet. Trump’s average “strongly unfavorable” rating, 53 percent, is 20 percentage points higher than every candidate’s rating besides Clinton’s. Trump is less disliked than David Duke was when Duke ran for the presidency in 1992, but Duke never came close to winning the nomination. In fact, I’ve seen never anything like Trump’s numbers heading into a general election for someone who is supposed to be competitive.4
Part of the negativity voters feel toward Clinton and Trump probably has something to do with growing political polarization in our country. But polarization doesn’t explain everything. If Trump and Clinton’s strongly unfavorable ratings were simply a byproduct of polarized politics, you’d expect them to have high “strongly favorable” ratings too. They don’t. You can see this in their net strong favorability ratings (the “strongly favorable” rating minus the “strongly unfavorable” rating):
https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/enten-generaldislike-2.png?w=575&h=513
No major party nominee before Clinton or Trump had a double-digit net negative “strong favorability” rating. Clinton’s would be the lowest ever, except for Trump.
In previous cycles, the nominees of each party almost always had a strongly favorable and unfavorable rating within 10 percentage points of each other. The only exception was Michael Dukakis in 1988; only 19 percent of Americans felt strongly about Dukakis, either favorably or unfavorably. Over 50 percent of Americans give Clinton and Trump either a “strongly favorable” or “strongly unfavorable” rating, and most of that feeling is negative.
The good news for both candidates is that we’re still six months from the election. Dukakis was clearly more strongly liked than George H.W. Bush in 1988 at this point in the campaign, and it was Bush who went on to win the election. George W. Bush, in 2000, was also more strongly liked than Al Gore at this point, and the 2000 election ended up being really close. That is, there is time for these impressions to change.
Of course, we’ve never had two nominees like this, about whom so many voters had already made up their minds — emphatically. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. Voters see this campaign, for now, as truly a choice between the lesser of two evils.
Dracula 发表于 2016-5-5 06:13
The Electoral Map Looks Challenging for Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upsho ...
首先，在这次大选中，媒体的早期预测（尤其是关于特朗普的）基本上没有准确过，而且错得离谱；第二，希拉里没有收到过真正的挑战，桑德斯基本是是走高姿态的路，主攻issues，不甩烂泥。特朗普就是甩烂泥出身的，别指望他play nice。还是那句话，希拉里满身是缝，特朗普不给她下满一包蛆才怪。希拉里在大选里10%领先特朗普？这是精英阶层的一厢情愿。
Dracula 发表于 2016-5-5 07:26
2012年Obama的主要竞选策略就是攻击Mitt Romney在Bain Capital的经商记录，因此这根本谈不上是破坏游戏规 ...
要看税的话，巴菲特的收入也不高吧，他也交不了多少税。
lorry 发表于 2016-5-4 21:43
川普会不会叫希拉里cow。等着全国直播的时候叫出这一声。
都是被reality show给惯坏的观众啊。口味越来越重。唯恐天下不乱。
冰蚁 发表于 2016-5-5 21:50
要看税的话，巴菲特的收入也不高吧，他也交不了多少税。
就象我们报税都要报自己的收入，候选人公布的税表不仅包括他们交了多少税，也包括他们收入是多少。这些收入除了工资以外，也包括投资收入。象Mitt Romney 2010年的收入2100万美元，主要都是投资收入，交了300万美元的税，因为当时capital gains tax的税率只有15%，他还有不少慈善捐献可以抵税。从他的收入里，我们大致可以推测出他的财富是多少。我估计Trump不肯公布他的税表，主要不是怕显示他的财富比他吹嘘的少很多。
Dracula 发表于 2016-5-5 20:54
Americans’ Distaste For Both Trump And Clinton Is Record-Breaking
http://fivethirtyeight.com/featu ...
dislike的表真有意思啊~ 民主党一直是上升，本来还比较线性。现在出了女克，直接往指数上靠了。而共和党要不是trump的话很稳定，老布之后还一直成下降趋势~ 从这个表，能不能说明其实民主党才是要倒台的~
晨枫 发表于 2016-5-5 05:24
首先，在这次大选中，媒体的早期预测（尤其是关于特朗普的）基本上没有准确过，而且错得离谱；第二，希拉 ...
It's a paradigm shift this year.Previous models no longer work as they no longer reflect reality.Anything is in play, anything can happen.
holycow 发表于 2016-5-5 12:00
It's a paradigm shift this year.Previous models no longer work as they no longer reflect reality ...
要不要开盘？
要不要开盘？
要不要开盘？
重要的话要说三次。。。
{:191:}
MacArthur 发表于 2016-5-5 09:41
要不要开盘？
要不要开盘？
莱斯特城5000:1的时候你干嘛去了？{:191:}{:191:}