tanis 发表于 2016-3-1 10:58
看了伯爵转的开头。 按现在已有的投票结果看，这些人是少数啊~ 明天Super Tuesday，快要见分晓了~：） ...
现在看来共和党要想阻止Trump成为他们的候选人，最大的希望已经不是Rubio一对一击败他，而是Rubio，Cruz，Kasich在接下来的选举中能各赢几个州，让Trump无法获得共和党代表的多数。这样将由在Cleveland举行的共和党全国代表大会决定共和党候选人。这个能实现的可能性不是很大，但还是有的。如果真是contested convention的话，很可能不会选择Trump，但他也很可能会恼羞成怒，以第三党身份坚持参选，这会保证希拉里获胜。
这些发誓宁可投希拉里，也不投Trump票的共和党人是少数，但我估计也不是很少，而且可能对大选会有很大的影响。Virginia现在已经是摇摆州，这些establishment 的共和党人在华盛顿附近的特别多。这些人反水能保证希拉里赢下Virginia。其它的摇摆州应该也会有一定影响。目前betting market的赌注还是希拉里有三分之二的概率成为总统。我的政治观点属于中间偏右，对希拉里还可以接受，因此现在还不是特别的panic。但如果Trump真成为总统的话，我确实觉得会是美国的灾难。就是对中国来说也是很不好的消息。中美之间贸易战爆发的可能性挺大。而且以Trump随便骂人的嘴，以及他对外交事务一窍不通却自以为是不愿学习，因为小的摩擦比如南海就和中国开仗的可能性我觉得都有。
本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2016-3-2 12:27 编辑
Dracula 发表于 2016-3-2 10:48
现在看来共和党要想阻止Trump成为他们的候选人，最大的希望已经不是Rubio一对一击败他，而是Rubio，Cruz ...
trump 上台贸易战可能性不大，但是法律上的摩擦会多。trump 的本质是商人，希望中国更守一点贸易规矩。打贸易战，美国受损失会很大。商人不干这种赔本买卖。
那些想反水的共和党，大概不是担忧trump 的大嘴巴和极右观点，而是关心 trump 的商人本质导致其嘴上一套，实际是另一套折中方案，根本不能反映共和党想搞的东西。
trump 上台，我预计会对中国利好。政治上可能不会那么紧张，经济上吵吵架中国其实无所谓。
超级星期二后，民主党已经团结在希拉里的旗帜下了。桑德斯一直比较有风度，有人说他是 campaign for reform, 而不是 campaign for president，现在看来还是挺有道理的。
共和党的初选还没结束，克鲁兹和卢比奥都表示不服。这样拖延越久对候选人伤害越大，最后还是民主党得利。
冰蚁 发表于 2016-3-3 01:25
trump 上台贸易战可能性不大，但是法律上的摩擦会多。trump 的本质是商人，希望中国更守一点贸易规矩。打 ...
同感，trump给我的印象更像一个搞孤立主义的，他说美国成了世界上各种问题的垃圾场，都是外国/外人（中国、穆斯林、墨西哥移民等）的错，要筑墙保护美国，很有点不管外面烂事、独善其身的意思。
反而希拉里在外交上依仗自己的经验人脉跃跃欲试，有点想干出点大事的意思。万一过火了反而危险了。
本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2016-3-2 12:44 编辑
qyangroo 发表于 2016-3-2 12:39
同感，trump给我的印象更像一个搞孤立主义的，他说美国成了世界上各种问题的垃圾场，都是外国/外人（中国 ...
民主党这拨人非常危险。看看奥黑干的事情就知道。我是宁愿 trump 这种上台也好过希拉里这种。这个老太绝对不是善茬，反而会导致和中国有南海摩擦升级的战争风险。还有搞的阿拉伯之春的一系列行动。这种人简直就是世界动乱之源，绝对不能上台。
冰蚁 发表于 2016-3-3 01:42
民主党这拨人非常危险。看看奥黑干的事情就知道。我是宁愿 trump 这种上台也好过希拉里这种。这个老太绝 ...
而且民主党还喜欢拔中产的毛补贴吃福利的，对坛子里大部分人都是利空。
冰蚁 发表于 2016-3-3 01:25
trump 上台贸易战可能性不大，但是法律上的摩擦会多。trump 的本质是商人，希望中国更守一点贸易规矩。打 ...
这还是把Trump当一个传统政客来对待，嘴上说当选后会大幅度提高对中国的关税，真正上任后会听从专家的建议，维持现状。但是以Trump的ego和对自己能力的自信，我不认为他上台后会听从所谓的专家。Trump从事的是房地产，同中国的贸易对他的财富影响不大。就从他自己的利益来说，还想笼络他的支持者，再干4年，是会兑现将工作带回美国这个诺言的。而且以Trump那张嘴，同中国有严重分歧的时候，是能公开骂得出口的，而且他骂人的水平很高，是既阴损又能击中别人的软肋。骂到习近平头上，我觉得就从维持国内的威望来讲习近平也不能丢这个面子。中美关系可能会很紧张。Trump对国际关系的知识一窍不通却还不屑于学习，还自视甚高，因为小事双方都下不了台，从而引发军事冲突我认为完全有可能。
Dracula 发表于 2016-3-3 02:19
这还是把Trump当一个传统政客来对待，嘴上说当选后会大幅度提高对中国的关税，真正上任后会听从专家的建 ...
Trump的大嘴更可能是竞选策略，用来给自己做免费的宣传。Self-funding的候选人没有道理像小小布什一样到处撒钱买票，昨晚的讲话明显就收敛了不少。我倒是对他不能第一时间拒绝KKK的endorse表示看不懂
冰蚁 发表于 2016-3-3 01:42
民主党这拨人非常危险。看看奥黑干的事情就知道。我是宁愿 trump 这种上台也好过希拉里这种。这个老太绝 ...
re
但是这还是符合美国利益的，搅乱中东美国人除了丢份儿，其实损失不大，如果难民危机继续发酵最后有可能搞垮欧盟，无论对中美都绝对是大利好
本帖最后由 MacArthur 于 2016-3-2 13:55 编辑
Dracula 发表于 2016-3-2 10:48
Virginia现在已经是摇摆州，这些establishment 的共和党人在华盛顿附近的特别多。这些人反水能保证希拉里赢下Virginia。其它的摇摆州应该也会有一定影响。
在Rubio和Trump之间摇摆，属于“人民内部矛盾”，在Trump和希大妈之间摇摆，就属于“敌我矛盾”了。。。
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就像甜党咸党为了一碗豆花可以把脑浆子打出来，但是在大是大非问题上 -- 比方说声讨独轮运之类，绝对不会因为一碗豆花投敌的哦。。。
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但如果Trump真成为总统的话，我确实觉得会是美国的灾难。就是对中国来说也是很不好的消息。中美之间贸易战爆发的可能性挺大。而且以Trump随便骂人的嘴，以及他对外交事务一窍不通却自以为是不愿学习，因为小的摩擦比如南海就和中国开仗的可能性我觉得都有。
多虑了。。。 对Trump不要太认真。。。 假使他能当选的话
- “随便骂人的嘴” -- 这个是一定的，肆无忌惮的大嘴巴肯定会招惹不少是非，再好的advisor也管不住呵
- “对外交事务一窍不通” 不假，对外交事务一窍不通的总统可不少呵，小牛屎，奥八黑，哪个上台之前懂外交了？不一样八年干下来了？美国总统这个职位说好混其实最好混，把具体事物交给助手（国务卿/副总统/顾问），他们是干什么吃的？！
- 要说“不愿学习”就未必了。Trump是个商人，见风使舵是本性，要不然一味干硬，他也混不到今天。你真以为他是个脑筋僵化、不愿学习的人么？这种人对于“喊口号”和“动真个”之间的区别，可是比谁都清楚。。。
- “因为小的摩擦和中国开战”Again， Trump可不是希大妈那种皿煮柿油Fundamentalist，他是个商人，对于商人来说，什么都有个Cost/Return问题。你认为他会这么不理智么？要打仗，军费哪里来？跟中国闹翻，大家一拍两散，一损俱损，对商人有多大损失？恐怕他最有数。。。
希大妈跟米帝军方鹰派、大军火集团的关系好得蜜里调油，真要开战，希大妈上台后会动手的可能性恐怕要更大一些。。。
-- 跟中国贸易战 -- 基于同样理由，没有必要担心他会比民主党更急于打贸易战。相反倒是希大妈更喜欢以贸易制裁做手段去推行她的那一套民主理念的“软实力”
主席早说过，他更喜欢右派 -- 右派的不友好是摆在明面上的；左派黑人的手段全在台面下头，更阴。。。
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说归说，个人认为，Trump对上希大妈，会出现“赢势输阵”的情况 -- 归根到底，白人在这个国家已经越来越不占多数了。希大妈左手大财团，右手Latino -- 只要她牢牢把持住新移民这一块，Trump很难撼动她的桩脚。。。
Dracula 发表于 2016-3-2 13:19
这还是把Trump当一个传统政客来对待，嘴上说当选后会大幅度提高对中国的关税，真正上任后会听从专家的建 ...
最近 trump 和 newyork times 的那个关于筑墙的传言很说明问题的。背后天晓得 trump 的身段能软到什么程度。
trump 也真不要听那么贸易专家的什么意见。看看国库的钱多了少了，才是要害。trump 虽然不做和中国的生意，但是财务还是懂的。比其它的候选人这方面强太多了。
冰蚁 发表于 2016-3-2 13:53
最近 trump 和 newyork times 的那个关于筑墙的传言很说明问题的。背后天晓得 trump 的身段能软到什么程 ...
他心里明镜似的 -- 说白了就是“逗你玩”。。。 谁当真呵。。。
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本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2016-3-2 14:07 编辑
怎这样呢 发表于 2016-3-2 13:49
re
但是这还是符合美国利益的，搅乱中东美国人除了丢份儿，其实损失不大，如果难民危机继续发酵最后有可 ...
题外话，搞乱欧盟对中国不利。中国还没强到和美国直接对抗的地步。拉上一个有力的欧盟会好很多。不客气地说，国内现在的情绪似乎因为这些年国家财力增长膨胀得很厉害，自视过高。虽然现在不至于象286时代当鸵鸟，完全的韬光养晦，至少还是不能当出头鸟的。
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-3-3 03:11 编辑
冰蚁 发表于 2016-3-3 02:53
最近 trump 和 newyork times 的那个关于筑墙的传言很说明问题的。背后天晓得 trump 的身段能软到什么程 ...
你这个回答很印证我刚看到的一句话
"People see whatever they want to see in Trump, & then they refuse to see anything else"
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/the-trump-tipping-point/471840/
本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2016-3-2 14:11 编辑
Dracula 发表于 2016-3-2 14:08
你这个回答很印证我刚看到的一句话
"People see whatever they want to see in Trump, & then they refu ...
嘿嘿，选举的时候都这样。不然为啥奥黑喊着change 就能上台了呢。你判断的眼光不也是一直局限在个人的硬件条件上么。按硬件标准，希拉里显然比奥黑更懂得国际事务，更有各方面经验。可惜上次输惨了。所以你的这些 concern 在历史经验面前完全不是个 concern 啊。
Dracula 发表于 2016-3-2 14:08
你这个回答很印证我刚看到的一句话
"People see whatever they want to see in Trump, & then they refu ...
另外，中国有句老话，叫话糙理不糙。刚开始听话糙的人讲话，很多人会皱眉头。等听多了，人是会自动忽略掉这种糙话，而去琢磨糙话后面的理糙不糙的问题。如果人们发现这个理还不糙的时候，很多人会转而接受，不反感。糙话也会被人一笑带过，“这人就这德性”。这种话糙理不糙的人，人缘通常都不差。这种心理完全可以解释目前 trump 的选举状态。
美国选举就是一心理游戏。候选人的硬件素质会产生一定的影响，但绝对不是最主要的。当选民开始喜欢，开始接受，所有的硬件素质全部就是 garbage，没有意义。如果最后真是希拉里对决 trump，希拉里最后被横扫，我都不会意外。
qyangroo 发表于 2016-3-3 01:39
同感，trump给我的印象更像一个搞孤立主义的，他说美国成了世界上各种问题的垃圾场，都是外国/外人（中国 ...
米帝要真搞孤立主义，说不定就又活过来了。反而是希大妈这样铁了心玩免煮食油的，很可能一条道走到黑。她挑中国的刺，搞贸易战或者南海挑衅的可能要比讲利益的右派要大的多的多。。
刚才在WSJ看到的一篇文章，这个很有意思：
http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-campaign-blueprint-his-own-book-1456949133
Donald Trump, who emerged from the Super Tuesday presidential primaries in a commanding position, reached this point by mixing bluff and bluster, by cajoling allies and intimidating opponents, and by being alternately tough, sensational and flattering.
He has, in short, handled the presidential campaign as if he were negotiating a deal.
The blueprint has been hiding in plain sight all along, say those who know Mr. Trump best. “The Art of the Deal,” the best-selling book he wrote in a quite different context almost three decades ago, lays out many elements of his unorthodox effort.
The book’s 11 tenets include advising negotiators to find ways to “get the word out” about their position—and “the more sensational, the better.” One key strategy is to “fight back,” and to do so “very hard” against “losers.” The successful negotiator needs to “think big.”
Mr. Trump acknowledges the parallels. “This is the biggest deal of my life,” he said in an interview. “I’ve done big deals, but this is a very complex series of deals that ultimately hopefully gets us to the right place to make America great again.” The book’s lessons are “there psychologically” for him, he said. “It’s automatic.”
超长文章，中间部分省略
Early in his book, Mr. Trump describes 11 “elements of the deal.” They include:
‘Think Big’
With that adage in mind, Mr. Lewandowski said, Mr. Trump from the outset decided not to pursue “a one- or two-state strategy,” but to mount a national campaign.
“You have to win them all,” Mr. Trump said in the interview. “It doesn’t help to win one or two.”
The think-big philosophy led Mr. Trump to quickly adopt positions that produced shock and outrage. He created a firestorm by suggesting that the U.S. temporarily ban Muslims after the Paris and San Bernardino terrorist attacks.
‘Know Your Market’
Mr. Trump viewed the electorate as a target market, and he concluded voters were angry, antiestablishment, frustrated with Washington’s gridlock and fed up with what they perceived as weakness at home and abroad. He didn’t see that market as narrow or made up of niches, but broad, he said.
“My market is the people in the country who want to see America be great again,” he said. “It’s very simple. That’s a lot of people. That’s not broken down by age, or race or anything.”
‘Enhance Location’
Early trips to Iowa and New Hampshire showed that his celebrity status enabled him to draw larger crowds than other candidates did in traditional house parties. An early event at the home of New Hampshire state Rep. Stephen Stepanek produced a crowd that threatened the stability of the floors. After that, the campaign sought big spaces.
The effort was criticized as a move away from the traditional cozy settings for New Hampshire political gatherings, but it attracted bigger crowds, which brought more media coverage. “Enhancing location brought enhanced benefits,” Mr. Lewandowski said.
‘Get the Word Out’
In the book, Mr. Trump advised: “If you are a little different, or a little outrageous, or if you do things that are bold or controversial, the press is going to write about you.”
That is what happened when Mr. Trump proposed a temporary ban on Muslims entering the U.S., and when he questioned whether former GOP presidential candidate John McCain was a war hero because he was captured. Mr. Trump’s controversial statements dominated news coverage for weeks, prompting pundits and politicians to predict his demise. Instead, his poll numbers rose.
He also adopted another powerful weapon for getting his word out: Twitter. Mr. Trump tweeted early, late and often. “Some people don’t like the idea that you use Twitter and you’re running for president,” said Mr. Trump, who doesn’t use a computer, but tweets from his phone. “Those people are backward.”
Through his Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts, the Trump campaign is followed by nearly 14 million people. The campaign has more than 50 million “engagements” on Facebook, said campaign social-media director Daniel Scavino.
‘Contain the Costs’
Access to so many potential supporters through social media and data obtained from rally attendees helped the Trump campaign meet this tenet. A few weeks ago, the campaign began posting a five-digit number on Mr. Trump’s podium for supporters to get the latest news. “It costs us zero, and we’ve gotten one million inbound texts,” Mr. Lewandowski said, making it unnecessary to buy databases to connect with voters.
Mr. Trump also pays no money for his own pollsters, the cost-saving measure of which he is proud.
‘Fight Back’
This may be the “Art of the Deal” advice Mr. Trump has followed most assiduously. Mr. Trump openly proclaimed he would hit back if hit, and hard. From the start, Mr. Trump skewered the other candidates, especially former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whom he repeatedly called “low energy.”
More recently, his opponents have hit back. Sen. Marco Rubio has called Mr. Trump a “con artist” who may have “wet his pants.” Mr. Trump shot back that “little Marco” is a “lightweight” “choker” with “big ears.”
Fighting back is a must, in the deal blueprint and in the campaign, Mr. Trump said. “I don’t like it, but I have no choice,” he said. “I watch people say Trump shouldn’t do it because he’s the front-runner, but when somebody attacks you, you have to.”
‘Have Fun’
This is the final element of deal-making, Mr. Trump said, and something he is doing in the campaign, even in long rope lines after events when he shakes hands and poses for selfies.
Many supporters are fans of his book. Jeff Washenberger, 57 years old, of Salem, Va., said he read “The Art of the Deal” and found it useful for running the motel and rental properties he owns. He said he believes Mr. Trump will bring his “deal-making forte to the White House.”
After a Trump rally Monday in Radford, Va., several supporters held up “The Art of the Deal,” which Mr. Trump delights in signing.
“They know ‘The Art of the Deal,’ probably the No. 1 business book of all time,” Mr. Trump said.
冰蚁 发表于 2016-3-3 03:01
题外话，搞乱欧盟对中国不利。中国还没强到和美国直接对抗的地步。拉上一个有力的欧盟会好很多。不客气地 ...
还不到时候处处出头呢。
现在是该冒头就冒头，不该冒头还是闷声发大财，这样才对。
王不留 发表于 2016-3-3 04:31
米帝要真搞孤立主义，说不定就又活过来了。反而是希大妈这样铁了心玩免煮食油的，很可能一条道走到黑。她 ...
美帝如果收缩，凭借跨两洋的地理优势，丰富的资源，优质的教育，即使坐在老二的位置也可以维持很久， 甚至随时可以逆序老大。
但美帝如果再陷入一场伊拉克战争规模的冲突， 而且战败，恐怕会陷入垂直落体式的崩溃。