你们太低估TRUMP了。
从市场营销的角度看，TRUMP真是太精明了。他提出的这些有争议的政策和口号，其实就是要制造争议，让他的名字永远都出现在媒体的头条。其他候选人在营销方面和他比较，简直就是一堆小学生。我个人认为他如果没有什么太大的把柄或者大的昏招，当选的可能性非常大。
Dracula 发表于 2016-1-21 13:06
墨西哥移民也大多数是白人，主要是西班牙血统。
都是跟印第安人混血的好吗，一看那脸部轮廓就跟欧洲白人截然不同，西班牙人也不长那样。
tangotango 发表于 2016-1-21 13:25
都是跟印第安人混血的好吗，一看那脸部轮廓就跟欧洲白人截然不同，西班牙人也不长那样。 ...
西班牙殖民的时候，印第安人由于传染病，死亡率极高。墨西哥人的主要血统来自西班牙。按照美国统计局的数字，52%的墨西哥移民是白人，其它的是mixed race。
墨西哥人的外表同北欧人有比较大的差别，但同南欧人象西班牙人，意大利人差别很小。
mark 发表于 2016-1-21 13:12
你们太低估TRUMP了。
从市场营销的角度看，TRUMP真是太精明了。他提出的这些有争议的政策和口号，其实就是 ...
对Trump持负面看法的比例就是在共和党内都很高，在independent里更是远超过对他持正面看法的比例。Trump对希拉里的话，能赢的可能性非常小。就是共和党内的初选，他能赢得提名的可能性我觉得都不超过30%。真要押注的话，我会押Ted Cruz。我个人的favorite是John Kasich。
Dracula 发表于 2016-1-21 14:26
对Trump持负面看法的比例就是在共和党内都很高，在independent里更是远超过对他持正面看法的比例。Trump ...
精英可能不会上TRUMP的当。普通老百姓就不一定了。精英毕竟是少数。
mark 发表于 2016-1-21 00:12
你们太低估TRUMP了。
从市场营销的角度看，TRUMP真是太精明了。他提出的这些有争议的政策和口号，其实就是 ...
其他候选人在营销方面和他比较，简直就是一堆小学生。
象党第一次电视辩论后有评论就说了：“Trump对其他几个人纯粹就是Bully -- 对小学生一样连哄带吓唬。。。”
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Dracula 发表于 2016-1-21 01:26
对Trump持负面看法的比例就是在共和党内都很高，在independent里更是远超过对他持正面看法的比例。Trump ...
Pollster这事儿有时好使有时不好使，不可不信，不可全信。
希大妈的策略就是紧跟民调数字，pollster说大家想听啥她就说啥，pollster说大家爱听啥她也赶紧跟进。黑八最近民调虚高，希大妈赶紧站出来借光，使劲强调自己跟黑八好得如何穿一条裤子，明里暗里贬Sanders跟总统不搭。。。
Trump能不能搞得定她？谁都不好说。但是希大妈这种伪君子就得Trump这样的真小人来逗 -- 痛快呵。。。
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holycow 发表于 2016-1-21 03:45
没有谁比阿尔伯塔人更适合伪装成德克萨斯人
选谁也不能选加拿大人上台。如果到加州共和党初选的 ...
外国出生的人也能选总统？或者说加拿大不是外国，而是帝国行省？
qyangroo 发表于 2016-1-21 08:25
外国出生的人也能选总统？或者说加拿大不是外国，而是帝国行省？
这个是 natural born citizen 的定义问题。哈哈。
qyangroo 发表于 2016-1-21 05:25
外国出生的人也能选总统？或者说加拿大不是外国，而是帝国行省？
naturally-born citizen，我的理解是生来就具有美国国籍，没有说生来不能有其他国籍，所以应该没问题。
当然他要是从共和党出线一定会有人拿这个来做文章。
MacArthur 发表于 2016-1-21 07:04
象党第一次电视辩论后有评论就说了：“Trump对其他几个人纯粹就是Bully -- 对小学生一样连哄带吓唬。。。 ...
问题就在这里：美国有太大一批白人就想看这样对political correctness的bully，还不限于蓝领、低教育层次。甚至在加拿大都有Trump的啦啦队，我办公室的隔壁就是。
其实把Trump和当年竞选年代的希特勒对照，会很有意思。不是说他的政纲，而是说他对选民的影响。
MacArthur 发表于 2016-1-21 07:14
Pollster这事儿有时好使有时不好使，不可不信，不可全信。
希大妈的策略就是紧跟民调数字，pollster说大 ...
民调离谱的多了。加拿大上次大选中，民调就离谱得厉害，弄得人人以为NDP是稳定首选。上两次Alberta省选也是，都错得离谱。
Dracula 发表于 2016-1-21 14:26
对Trump持负面看法的比例就是在共和党内都很高，在independent里更是远超过对他持正面看法的比例。Trump ...
越是这样有争议，越是被共和党内都不看好，才越可能被选出来。群众对那些传统的共和党民主党党棍估计已经是厌烦的不要不要的啦。。
本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2016-1-21 11:21 编辑
MacArthur 发表于 2016-1-21 08:14
Pollster这事儿有时好使有时不好使，不可不信，不可全信。
希大妈的策略就是紧跟民调数字，pollster说大 ...
不是号称7-11的调查最准么。我看这些竞选人给7-11钱，让他们帮着调查一次算了。
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MacArthur 发表于 2016-1-21 21:14
Pollster这事儿有时好使有时不好使，不可不信，不可全信。
希大妈的策略就是紧跟民调数字，pollster说大 ...
A G.O.P. Majority in New Hampshire Pipes Up: We’re Not for Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/us/politics/donald-trump-new-hampshire-voters.html?_r=0
BROOKLINE, N.H. — Jeanne Cleveland, a retired teacher, pursed her lips sourly at the mention of his name and tried to summarize her distaste in diplomatic terms.
“I think he’s arrogant,” she said. “I think he’s rude. I think——”
She paused, reaching for the right words. “Let’s just say, I don’t like the way he represents us as a country.”
To avoid any confusion, Mrs. Cleveland put it plainly: “I don’t like Trump.”
In this, the retired teacher, 70, from Hollis, N.H., has ample, baffled and agonized company in New Hampshire as the presidential primary enters its final, frenzied weeks, with Donald J. Trump remaining atop poll after poll of the state’s Republican electorate.
Or is he? So deep is the dislike for him in some quarters that people like Mrs. Cleveland’s husband, Doug, question the accuracy of polls that so consistently identify Mr. Trump as leading the field with around 32 percent. “I’ve never met a single one of them,” Mr. Cleveland said about those said to be backing Mr. Trump. “Where are all these Trump supporters? Everyone we know is supporting somebody else.”
These are the lamentations of the 68 Percent — the significant majority of Republican voters here who are immune to Mr. Trump’s charms and entreaties, according to a battery of voter interviews on Thursday at campaign events for his rivals.
For months, great quantities of ink, political-science brain power and polling resources have been expended trying to dissect, if not exactly diagnose, the Trump phenomenon — precisely who supports him and why. Far less energy has been devoted to sounding out a much larger segment of the electorate: those who reject him.
From Brookline to Laconia, these voters call Mr. Trump “unhinged.” They object to his “temperament.” They doubt his motives.
Their disapproval runs strikingly deep. Several spoke of changing the channel whenever his face (or, more frequently, his New York-accented voice, via telephone) turned up on television.
“I really try not to watch him,” one resident, Paul Brennan, said as he walked out of an appearance by Senator Marco Rubio of Florida in a factory in Brookline, along New Hampshire’s southern border. “I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him.”
Trust is a nagging, recurring issue among Trump skeptics. On some level, they do not quite believe that he is really, seriously running for president, despite everything, nor are they convinced that his Republicanism is authentic.
They remember his donations to Democratic candidates (since disavowed as a business necessity) and his support for abortion rights (rationalized as trying to fit in with left-leaning New Yorkers).
Charles Bradley, 67, a retired lawyer from Laconia who calls himself conservative, said he had lost count of Mr. Trump’s shifting allegiances and discarded positions.
“He loves everybody until he doesn’t love them, if you’ve noticed,” Mr. Bradley said. “He loved Ted Cruz, and now he doesn’t anymore. He loved Hillary Clinton, and now he doesn’t anymore.”
But for the 68 Percent, no single attribute rankles as much as Mr. Trump’s instinctive proclivity to insult — everyone, over everything, no matter how big or small the issue, from Mexicans to the Fox News journalist Megyn Kelly.
“His behavior — I can’t do it,” complained Joan Weaving, 72, from Hampton, N.H., as she sat on a folding chair next to her husband at a Jeb Bush campaign event on Thursday night. “Belittling people. Just seeing the bad parts of things.”
They may share his impatience with ordinary political speak, with the hypersensitivity that has crept into American public life. And they admire his attempts to crack and peel away that veneer of politesse.
But they have limits.
Barbara Henry, 63, wants a president with a filter. Any filter. “He has no filter,” she said, leaning forward to make her point.
“I understand people say, ‘I’m sick of this political correctness.’ I get that,” she said. “But there’s also an argument for some measure of civility. I mean, he’s just not somebody who you can say, ‘I’m proud he’s our president.’”
Several voters insisted they had tried hard to close their eyes and picture Mr. Trump as the leader of the free world. They could not do it, they say.
“He’ll lose his cool when he gets up with Putin or one of those, and tell them to go fly a kite,” predicted Kathy DeFreitas, who lingered at a pizza parlor in Manchester after listening to Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.
Jim Lowell, 65, a retired Navy commander, served under commanders in chief, so he felt qualified to assess applicants for the job. “I don’t think he’s presidential,” Mr. Lowell said. “I don’t think he has the experience. I don’t think he has the knowledge.”
Some voters interviewed said they wondered what, exactly, a President Trump would do to “make America great again.” Few could pinpoint much of an agenda, besides The Wall, in Mr. Trump’s abundant pronouncements.
“I don’t know and I’m not sure he does, to tell you the truth,” said Mr. Bradley, the retired lawyer.
Mr. Trump’s televised ubiquity has provided voters with an extraordinary amount of raw material from which to judge him — or to make a Trump diagnosis. Several voters offered their unsolicited medical opinions.
“I do believe he suffers from megalomania,” said Lorraine Raleigh, a 68-year-old retired teacher from Hampton.
Ray Weaving, 75, charitably downgraded the condition ever so slightly. “Egomaniac,” he said.
Mr. Trump is fond of describing his followers as a silent majority. But there is nothing quiet about his doubters, whose frustration with him boils over at the campaign events of his rivals.
Dracula 发表于 2016-1-22 12:29
A G.O.P. Majority in New Hampshire Pipes Up: We’re Not for Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/ ...
He Who Must Not Be Named...
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Controversy - that's EXACTLY what's needed for primary candidate trying to stand out.... He's just doing his job...
操纵民调数字这种招数，肯定不是Trump发明的啦。。。 他也绝对不是唯一一个这么干的。。。
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本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-1-25 02:43 编辑
最近的消息，纽约的前市长Michael Bloomberg正在考虑是否作为independent candidate加入到总统竞选中。如果民主党选出的是Bernie Sanders，共和党是Trump 或Cruz，Bloomberg很可能会参选，并且准备花10亿美元自己的财富。我对Bloomberg很有好感，觉得他会是个不错的总统，如果他面对Sanders和Cruz或Trump，我会支持他。不过就是在这种情况下，我觉得他获胜的可能性也不大，但是如果Cruz是共和党候选人，Trump挺有可能也会以第三党的身份参选，那样的话，今年的大选就会特别热闹。说不定谁也不会拿到electoral college的多数，会出现自1824年后，首次众议院投票决定总统的情况。
偶尔听了一场Ohio州长John Kasich的访谈，感觉他确实是个理性的人。
但是今年流行的是非主流政客，他这一款好像很不吸睛。
Dracula 发表于 2016-1-21 14:26
对Trump持负面看法的比例就是在共和党内都很高，在independent里更是远超过对他持正面看法的比例。Trump ...
Iowa的结果出来了。Cruz赢了，Trump输了，我的预测还是挺准的。
Dracula 发表于 2016-2-2 11:42
Iowa的结果出来了。Cruz赢了，Trump输了，我的预测还是挺准的。
虽然我还是很想看戏，不过这个结果还是不错