晨枫 发表于 2016-2-2 09:40
和60年代相比，社会分化或许并不严重，那也是美国历史上社会分化最严重的年代，南北战争时代除外。不过和 ...
现在的global scheme是草根的愤怒，只不过愤怒的表现形式不同而已。
北非中东那边就愤怒日自焚胜利广场，台湾就太阳花，国内就上微信乱喷，日本那种不太愤怒的国家就当宅男腐女，到美国就占领华尔街支持insurgent candidate{:219:}
晨枫 发表于 2016-2-2 08:07
那像Ted Cruz那么极端，对于他的政策主张的operability有什么设想吗？比如说，他当总统了，政府关门了， ...
TPP有啥了？奥巴马2008年竞选的时候还有政见上台后要重新谈判NAFTA呢，7年过去了，加拿大还在{:211:}
holycow 发表于 2016-2-2 14:14
TPP有啥了？奥巴马2008年竞选的时候还有政见上台后要重新谈判NAFTA呢，7年过去了，加拿大还在 ...
oh, canada~~~ oh, canada~~~
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据说杰布布什把他哥的干涉伊拉克的言论抛出来。
似乎有退选的意思，把家族基本盘的形象突出一下，为下一步跟各候选人要价铺路。
Dracula 发表于 2016-2-3 01:44
搞政治的都这样，都是选民咋说就怎么迎合。例外也有，像1964年的Barry Goldwater，到美国最贫困的Appalac ...
不关心 谁上来都是天朝之敌
Dracula 发表于 2016-2-2 12:44
搞政治的都这样，都是选民咋说就怎么迎合。例外也有，像1964年的Barry Goldwater，到美国最贫困的Appalac ...
这是真汉子呵。。。
{:191:}
Dracula 发表于 2016-2-2 13:51
年轻人更容易被理想主义感染。Sanders主张大学免费，single payered health care 等社会主义主张更容易煽 ...
希大妈的表情太夸张了，总是瞪着眼睛一惊一乍，里外都透着假。。。 她这个人自始至终就不知道“Sincere”这个字是怎么写的
刚看到的挺有意思的一篇文章
Donald Trump, Class Warrior
By Clive Crook
http://bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-19/donald-trump-class-warrior
Charles Murray's recent article for the Wall Street Journal on "Trump's America" offers an interesting explanation of an initially inexplicable phenomenon. I think Murray's right to see support for Trump as an act of protest that's both understandable and even, on its own terms, rational.
The piece discusses economic pressures and cultural strains across the United States. The economic factor is familiar, but the salience of class and culture, which Murray emphasizes, is too little appreciated.
Even putting race to one side, America was never the classless society it has imagined itself to be. But tribute is still paid to the idea, and this has obscured the role of class in this strange election. Murray writes about a new merit-based upper class, comprising talented people, educated and socialized at college, and doing pretty well. They have a good opinion of themselves.
Another characteristic of the new upper class -- and something new under the American sun -- is their easy acceptance of being members of an upper class and their condescension toward ordinary Americans. Try using "redneck" in a conversation with your highly educated friends and see if it triggers any of the nervousness that accompanies other ethnic slurs. Refer to "flyover country" and consider the implications when no one asks, "What does that mean?" Or I can send you to chat with a friend in Washington, D.C., who bought a weekend place in West Virginia. He will tell you about the contempt for his new neighbors that he has encountered in the elite precincts of the nation’s capital.
That friend would be me. Allow me to elaborate.
I'm a British immigrant, and grew up in a northern English working-class town. Taking my regional accent to Oxford University and then the British civil service, I learned a certain amount about my own class consciousness and other people's snobbery. But in London or Oxford from the 1970s onwards I never witnessed the naked disdain for the working class that much of America's metropolitan elite finds permissible in 2016.
When my wife and I bought some land in West Virginia and built a house there, many friends in Washington asked why we would ever do that. Jokes about guns, banjo music, in-breeding, people without teeth and so forth often followed. These Washington friends, in case you were wondering, are good people. They'd be offended by crass, cruel jokes about any other group. They deplore prejudice and keep an eye out for unconscious bias. More than a few object to the term, "illegal immigrant." Yet somehow they feel the white working class has it coming.
My neighbors in West Virginia are good people too. Hard to believe, since some work outside and not all have degrees, but trust me on this. They're aware of how they're seen by the upper orders. They understand the prevailing view that they're bigots, too stupid to know what's good for them, and they see that this contempt is reserved especially for them. The ones I know don't seem all that angry or bitter -- they find it funny more than infuriating -- but they sure don't like being looked down on.
Many of them are Trump supporters.
Granting the appeal of the straight-talking outsider, one still must ask, why Trump? I mean, he doesn't actually talk straight: In his own inimitable way, he panders like a pro. Shouldn't it matter to someone who usually votes Republican that Trump isn't a conservative -- that, in policy terms, he isn't really anything? He's a liar and proud of it, transparently cynical and will say whatever comes into his head. How could anybody trust this man?
Yet, contrary to reports, the Trump supporters I'm talking about aren't fools. They aren't racists either. They don't think much would change one way or the other if Trump were elected. The political system has failed them so badly that they think it can't be repaired and little's at stake. The election therefore reduces to an opportunity to express disgust. And that's where Trump's defects come in: They're what make him such an effective messenger.
The fact that he's outrageous is essential. (Ask yourself, what would he be without his outrageousness? Take that away and nothing remains.) Trump delights mainly in offending the people who think they're superior -- the people who radiate contempt for his supporters. The more he offends the superior people, the more his supporters like it. Trump wages war on political correctness. Political correctness requires more than ordinary courtesy: It's a ritual, like knowing which fork to use, by which superior people recognize each other.
This isn't the whole explanation of Trumpism, by any means, but I think it's part of the explanation. Supporting Trump is an act of class protest -- not just over hard economic times, the effect of immigration on wages or the depredations of Wall Street, but also, and perhaps most of all, over lack of respect. That's something no American, with or without a college degree, will stand for.
Dracula 发表于 2016-2-19 17:13
刚看到的挺有意思的一篇文章
Donald Trump, Class Warrior
Trump 不多加干货是木有未来的。
Dracula 发表于 2016-2-19 14:13
刚看到的挺有意思的一篇文章
Donald Trump, Class Warrior
这篇写得不错，比WSJ那篇原文更好
冰蚁 发表于 2016-2-19 15:58
Trump 不多加干货是木有未来的。
按照常理，川普上次辩论已经被打爆了。但是现在谁也不敢说他真的被打爆了{:216:}
holycow 发表于 2016-2-20 08:22
按照常理，川普上次辩论已经被打爆了。但是现在谁也不敢说他真的被打爆了 ...
Trump现在又和教皇开上了战。昨天用的词是disgraceful。今天可能回过味来，意识到和教皇对骂可能不明智，要丢不少选票，用词缓和了很多。Trump骂起人来没有顾忌，脑子想到什么就说出来这一点，他的支持者可能喜欢。对我来说要是他当上总统主持外交事务的时候，就他这一点，我都觉得很可怕。
Dracula 发表于 2016-1-21 14:11
西班牙殖民的时候，印第安人由于传染病，死亡率极高。墨西哥人的主要血统来自西班牙。按照美国统计局的数 ...
你自己去西班牙走走吧，西班牙人的狹长脸和墨西哥人宽宽的朴实脸形差别还是不小的。把西班牙人和墨西哥人放一起我一眼就能分出来。
Dracula 发表于 2016-2-20 12:25
Trump现在又和教皇开上了战。昨天用的词是disgraceful。今天可能回过味来，意识到和教皇对骂可能不明智， ...
小布什下架了。伯爵能说说，他这个“孙权”为啥当不成么？他这种貌似主流的要想上位，必须怎么办？
谁能受益？Rubio ？
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2016-2-21 16:43 编辑
南京老萝卜 发表于 2016-2-21 13:12
小布什下架了。伯爵能说说，他这个“孙权”为啥当不成么？他这种貌似主流的要想上位，必须怎么办？
谁能 ...
今年是anti-establishment 年，民主党共和党都是这样。Jeb Bush的父亲哥哥都是总统，算是establishment最典型的代表，今年确实不是他的时候。他也没能争取到共和党的Establishment 团结到自己周围。要是Establishment很早的时候就一致支持他的话，John Kasich很可能就不会参选，New Hampshire的时候Jeb 可能会升到第二，他的momentum会有不少的变化，结果也未可知。他本人的charisma 也确实不怎么样。前几天他的哥哥George W. 为他拉选票。我看了不少报道，印象都是George W. 在这方面比Jeb 强的太多，一下子就能让选民感到亲近，和选民建立一种联系。如果今年是George W. 选的话，能比他强很多
另外Jeb Bush好像是所有选举人里，竞选经费筹措的最多的。他的superpac 就筹了超过1亿美元，最近一个月在电视广告上特别能花钱。这一次却输的这么惨。而领先的Donald Trump却几乎没花过多少钱。金钱对选举的作用是被大大夸大了。
Jeb Bush下去的话，受益者应该是Rubio。接下来会是Trump, Cruz, Rubio 3人争夺。谁都拿不到多数的可能性挺大。说不定真得到7月份Cleveland共和党全国代表大会的时候才能决定共和党候选人，这会是现代美国历史上，自采用primary制度后的第一次。那两天电视直播的收视率会非常高。如果这真发生的话，共和党候选人是谁都有可能，比如有些地方提到众议院议长Paul Ryan的名字。
民主党方面，在Nevada的选举，希拉里得到76%黑人的选票，对比一下，8年前Obama也不过只得到83%。黑人是民主党政治联盟的重要组成部分，这么高的支持率应该能保证希拉里顺利在党内选举中获胜。希拉里这个人我没有好感，但她的立场属于中间偏左，能力上也还行，我觉得比Trump, Cruz和Rubio都强。她我还能接受。
holycow 发表于 2016-2-19 19:22
按照常理，川普上次辩论已经被打爆了。但是现在谁也不敢说他真的被打爆了 ...
“按照常理” -- 川普参选，整个事儿就不是“常理”呵。。。
出线越来越有希望啦。。。
Dracula 发表于 2016-2-19 23:25
Trump现在又和教皇开上了战。昨天用的词是disgraceful。今天可能回过味来，意识到和教皇对骂可能不明智， ...
那倒不一定。总统一般不会直接先发声，有冷静时间。而且，明显，trump 是利益至上。算盘一打，冷静期一过，嘴炮说不定就不开了。即使嘴炮前面开得再凶，后面身段也能立马放下来。所以我觉得问题倒不大。
holycow 发表于 2016-2-19 19:22
按照常理，川普上次辩论已经被打爆了。但是现在谁也不敢说他真的被打爆了 ...
不过就给这几个候选人相面的话，trump 感觉最有总统相。哇哈哈。
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Dracula 发表于 2016-2-19 23:25
...对我来说要是他当上总统主持外交事务的时候，就他这一点，我都觉得很可怕。
骂归骂，什么时候需要放软身段，什么时候需要当真下黑手，这种人可一点儿也不含糊。。。
{:187:}
反而是希大妈这种皿煮柿油的“Fundamentalist”，更容易在一些“原则”问题上被猪油糊了心眼儿。。。
本帖最后由 holycow 于 2016-2-22 09:18 编辑
MacArthur 发表于 2016-2-9 22:10
希大妈的表情太夸张了，总是瞪着眼睛一惊一乍，里外都透着假。。。 她这个人自始至终就不知道“Sincere” ...
大妈的问题是她没有从草根一步一步选上来的经历。她老公阿肯色那个地方的州长选赢了再输，输了再赢，桑德斯也是从选伯林顿市长开始，再选参议员，这种都是身经百战的。她上来的第一个公职是Clinton任命她领导医保改革的task force，上来就是高高在上，弄个HillaryCare一把就被人干掉了，然后就缩到后面去了。那个参议员也是凭名气选的。现在要打选战，townhall，她这个高高在上的短板暴露无遗。