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2024-10-11 12:15 |
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A generation ago, any list of America’s most admired manufacturers would have had Intel and Boeing near the top.
上一代人，任何美国最受尊敬的制造商名单中，英特尔和波音都位居榜首。
Today, both are on the ropes. Intel has suspended its dividend, slashed jobs and capital spending, and is a takeover target. Boeing has been hobbled by investigations into crashes and a midair mishap, production delays and a strike. A breakup or bankruptcy areno longer unthinkable.
如今，两人都陷入了困境。英特尔已暂停派息、削减岗位和资本支出，并成为收购目标。波音公司因坠机事故、空中事故、生产延误和罢工的调查而陷入困境。分手或破产不再是不可想象的。
In the past five years the combined market value of the two has fallen by half. More than just an ordeal for shareholders, this is a potential disaster for the nation.
过去五年里，两者的总市值下降了一半。这不仅是对股东的考验，对国家来说也是一场潜在的灾难。
The U.S. is in a geopolitical contest with China defined not just by military power but economic and technological prowess. Leaders from both U.S. political parties say they are on the case, pushing for tariffs and subsidies.
美国与中国的地缘政治竞争不仅在于军事实力，还在于经济和技术实力。美国两党领导人均表示，他们正在处理此案，推动征收关税和补贴。
Whatever their merits, these measures don’t address the fundamental problem that Boeing and Intel represent. The U.S. still designs the world’s most innovative products, but is losing the knack for making them.
无论其优点如何，这些措施都没有解决波音和英特尔所代表的根本问题。美国仍然设计着世界上最具创新性的产品，但正在失去制造这些产品的诀窍。
At the end of 1999, four of the 10 most valuable U.S. companies were manufacturers. Today, none are. The lone rising star: Tesla, which ranked 11th.
1999 年底，美国 10 家最有价值的公司中有 4 家是制造商。今天，没有一个是。唯一的后起之秀：特斯拉，排名第 11 位。
Intel and Boeing were once the gold standard in manufacturing groundbreaking products to demanding specifications with consistently high quality. Not any longer.
英特尔和波音曾经是制造突破性产品的黄金标准，这些产品符合严格的规格和始终如一的高品质。不再是了。
Neither fell prey to cheap foreign competition, but their own mistakes. Their culture evolved to prioritize financial performance over engineering excellence, which also brought down another manufacturing icon, General Electric.
两者都不是廉价外国竞争的牺牲品，而是他们自己的错误。他们的文化演变为优先考虑财务绩效而不是卓越的工程，这也导致了另一个制造业偶像通用电气的垮台。
Intel passed on making the chips for Apple’s first iPhone, thinking it wouldn’t be profitable enough. It was late to adopt the latest technology for etching the tiniest circuits, and it missed the boom in artificial intelligence.
英特尔放弃了为苹果首款 iPhone 生产芯片，因为认为这不会带来足够的利润。采用最新技术蚀刻最微小的电路为时已晚，错过了人工智能的繁荣时期。
Boeing thought it would be cheaper and faster to add more efficient engines to its bestselling 737 with the help of software rather than completely redesign or replace the plane. That contributed to two fatal crashes. Outsourcing of its supply chain and an exodus of experienced machinists during the pandemic contributed to quality problems and delays.
波音公司认为，借助软件为其最畅销的 737 飞机添加更高效的发动机会更便宜、更快捷，而不是完全重新设计或更换飞机。这导致了两起致命事故。疫情期间供应链的外包和经验丰富的机械师的外流导致了质量问题和延误。
Since their problems are of their own making, it is tempting to leave them to their fates. Investors would likely shrug: Intel is worth less than $100 billion while Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia are together worth $10 trillion.
由于他们的问题是他们自己造成的，所以很容易让他们听天由命。投资者可能会耸耸肩：英特尔的市值还不到 1000 亿美元，而微软、苹果和英伟达的市值合计为 10 万亿美元。
The problem: Those tech giants’ software and devices are useless without the advanced semiconductors whose fabrication they contract out, especially to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.If China makes good on its threat to subjugate Taiwan in the coming years, the entire U.S. tech sector could be at Beijing’s mercy.
问题是：如果没有先进半导体的制造，这些科技巨头的软件和设备就毫无用处，尤其是台积电。如果中国在未来几年兑现征服台湾的威胁，整个美国科技行业可能会任由北京摆布。
![]() Intel is the only U.S.-based company capable of competing with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and it is struggling to do so.
英特尔是唯一一家有能力与台积电竞争的美国公司，而且它正在努力这样做。
TSMC is building fabrication plants in the U.S. with the help of $6.6 billion in subsidies from the Chips Act. But it will be years, if ever, before U.S. tech companies are no longer reliant on Taiwan.
借助《芯片法案》 66 亿美元的补贴，台积电正在美国建设制造工厂。但美国科技公司要不再依赖台湾，甚至还需要数年时间。
Intel is the only U.S.-based company capable of competing with TSMC, and it is struggling to do so.
英特尔是唯一一家有能力与台积电竞争的美国公司，而且它正在努力这样做。
While Elon Musk’s SpaceX has outclassed Boeing when it comes to space transport, there are no homegrown alternative suppliers of large commercial airliners. Without Boeing, that business would go to Airbus and, eventually, China’s state-owned Comac, which is now delivering its own competitor to the 737 and Airbus’ A320, the C919.
虽然埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 的 SpaceX 在太空运输方面超越了波音 (Boeing)，但大型商用客机没有本土的替代供应商。如果没有波音，该业务将落入空中客车公司手中，并最终落入中国国有企业商飞公司手中，该公司目前正在推出自己的 737 和空中客车 A320 的竞争对手 C919。
The loss of either company would have industrywide repercussions. Each supports a multilayered ecosystem of designers, workers, managers and suppliers. Once that ecosystem moves offshore, it is almost impossible to bring back.
任何一家公司的损失都会对整个行业产生影响。每一个都支持设计师、工人、经理和供应商的多层生态系统。一旦生态系统移至海外，就几乎不可能恢复。
Rob Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, notes Boeing is the largest U.S. manufacturing exporter, and “is also one of the most engineering-intensive companies in the world, so it is a large R&D spender.” Intel’s failure would deal a body blow to U.S. efforts to shore up the semiconductor ecosystem and reclaim market share from East Asia.
信息技术与创新基金会主席罗布·阿特金森 (Rob Atkinson) 指出，波音公司是美国最大的制造业出口商，“也是世界上工程最密集的公司之一，因此它的研发支出很大。”英特尔的失败将对美国支撑半导体生态系统和从东亚夺回市场份额的努力造成沉重打击。
So, much as national leaders would like to ignore these companies’ woes, they can’t. National security dictates the U.S. maintain some know-how in making aircraft and semiconductors.
因此，尽管国家领导人很想忽视这些公司的困境，但他们却做不到。国家安全要求美国保留一些制造飞机和半导体的专有技术。
Certainly other countries feel that way: European governments heavily subsidized Airbus. China is pursuing dominance in key technologies regardless of the cost. Its so-called Big Fund has sank roughly $100 billion into semiconductors while aid to Comac had reached $72 billion in 2020, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
当然其他国家也有同样的感觉：欧洲政府为空客提供了大量补贴。中国不惜一切代价追求关键技术的主导地位。据战略与国际研究中心称，其所谓的“大基金”已向半导体领域投入了约 1000 亿美元，而 2020 年对中国商飞的援助已达到 720 亿美元。
“Until Comac succeeds in gaining significant global market share, it will continue to run big losses and be bailed out by the Chinese government,” said Atkinson, whose organization gets support from Boeing.
阿特金森表示：“在中国商飞成功获得重要的全球市场份额之前，它将继续遭受巨额亏损，并需要中国政府的救助。”阿特金森的组织得到了波音公司的支持。
Both political parties have bought into the idea that manufacturing is special and thus deserving of public support. That raises the question: which manufacturing, and what kind of support?
两个政党都相信制造业是特殊的，因此值得公众支持。这就提出了一个问题：哪种制造以及什么样的支持？
The goal of manufacturing strategy shouldn’t be just producing jobs but great, world-beating products. Washington can help by encouraging the world’s best manufacturers to put down roots in the U.S. That forces American companies to raise their game and nurtures the workforce and supplier network that serves all companies. The Chips Act, by encouraging TSMC and Samsungto build or expand fabs in the U.S., indirectly helps U.S.-based Intel, GlobalFoundries and Micron (all of which have received subsidies).
制造战略的目标不应该只是创造就业机会，而应该是生产一流的、世界一流的产品。华盛顿可以通过鼓励世界上最好的制造商在美国扎根来提供帮助，这迫使美国公司提高竞争力并培养为所有公司服务的劳动力和供应商网络。 《芯片法案》通过鼓励台积电和三星在美国建设或扩建晶圆厂，间接帮助了美国的英特尔、格罗方德和美光（它们都获得了补贴）。
Both presidential candidates oppose Nippon Steel’s bid for U.S. Steel out of deference to the United Steelworkers, who question the Japanese behemoth’s commitment to unionized plants. Yet Nippon’s deep pockets and expertise in specialized steel would arguably make U.S. Steel a stronger, more secure employer.
两位总统候选人都反对新日铁收购美国钢铁公司，这是出于对美国钢铁工人联合会的尊重，美国钢铁工人联合会质疑这家日本巨头对工会工厂的承诺。然而，新日铁在特种钢铁领域的雄厚财力和专业知识无疑将使美国钢铁公司成为更强大、更安全的雇主。
In the early 1980s, with domestic automakers reeling from Japanese imports, President Reagan negotiated export restraints on automakers such as Toyota who went on to set up assembly plants in the U.S. The benefits went beyond the workers they hired and the consumers they served; Detroit was forced to adopt Toyota’s lean manufacturing and continuous improvement system.
20 世纪 80 年代初，国内汽车制造商因日本进口汽车而陷入困境，里根总统就对丰田等汽车制造商实施出口限制进行了谈判，这些汽车制造商随后在美国设立了组装厂。这样做的好处不仅仅是他们雇用的工人和他们服务的消费者；底特律被迫采用丰田的精益制造和持续改进体系。
In 2010, Toyota sold one of its plants to an American startup. It didn’t just provide Tesla with its first factory: It supplied seed capital, a veteran production executive to oversee Tesla’s manufacturing, and, as Musk put it at the time, “Toyota’s legendary engineering, manufacturing and production expertise.”
2010 年，丰田将其一家工厂出售给一家美国初创公司。它不仅为特斯拉提供了第一家工厂：它还提供了种子资金、一位负责监督特斯拉制造的资深生产主管，以及正如马斯克当时所说的“丰田传奇的工程、制造和生产专业知识”。
In the final analysis, manufacturing greatness is foremost a mission for the companies’ leaders and shareholders. They could learn from Musk’s willingness to sleep on factory floors and give priority to product development over earnings per share. When Boeing said last week it would sell new shares to shore up its finances, the stock rallied—a sign that investors understand its future is at stake.
归根结底，制造卓越首先是公司领导者和股东的使命。他们可以向马斯克学习，他愿意睡在工厂车间，并优先考虑产品开发而不是每股收益。当波音公司上周表示将出售新股以支撑其财务状况时，该公司股价上涨，这表明投资者明白该公司的未来岌岌可危。
Labor has a role here, too. Boeing’s union, whose leaders reached a new, enriched deal this past weekend, blamed the company’s woes on management—as did the auto workers who struck Detroit last year. But they are all in this together. Workers should weigh not just what Boeing pays in the next few years, but whether it will be around a generation from now.
工党在这里也发挥着作用。波音公司的工会领导人上周末达成了一项新的、内容丰富的协议，该工会将公司的困境归咎于管理层——去年底特律罢工的汽车工人也是如此。但他们都在一起。工人们不仅应该权衡波音公司在未来几年支付的费用，还应该权衡它是否会在一代人之后继续存在。
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