注册 登录
爱吱声 返回首页

Dracula的个人空间 http://aswetalk.net/bbs/?247 [收藏] [复制] [分享] [RSS]

日志

卡斯帕罗夫谈国际象棋和AI

热度 7已有 1328 次阅读2017-5-11 00:16 | 卡斯帕罗夫, 国际象棋

刚看到一篇对卡斯帕罗夫的采访。里面有一部分是关于国际象棋和AI。我读了以后觉得很有意思,摘抄一下。


COWEN: Now, given this, does this mean even very, very good chess engines will never play games as beautiful as human beings? Because you were so excited by this combination, in some ways, it may have led you down inexact paths, but it nonetheless led you down those paths, and we got the beautiful game that we did.


KASPAROV: Now you move back to these things, chess computers, and there’s certain things that people should realize. I hate talking about these things. We say in Russia it’s using a “bird language,” because you’re asking me questions and I’m not sure that — 99 percent of our listeners — they understand exactly what we are talking about.


The one thing for people to understand is that chess is, you may call, mathematical infinite game. The number of legal moves is more than number of atoms in the solar system. So machines cannot solve the game. You cannot expect machine to play e2-e4 at move one and announcing mate at 16,455 moves. But machines could work the game of chess from the end.


Now we know that machines mathematically solved all positions with four pieces, like king and queen, versus king and rook. All positions with five pieces, all positions with six pieces, and now seven pieces.


Seven pieces, it’s on the way. I’m not sure it’s all solved. We’re talking about 100 terabytes. Obviously, eight pieces will be already just insane number, and the game of chess’s ultimate endgame with 32 pieces. That’s why, maybe, machines will get to eight or nine moves, but that will probably be the end, even for the immense computing power that you can expect in next five, ten, twenty years.


COWEN: Will AI write beautiful music, or is there something about . . . ?


KASPAROV: But I want to finish this because what we discovered in this process . . . I wouldn’t overweight our listeners with all these details. I don’t want just to throw on them the mass information.


COWEN: It’s amazing what people will enjoy, though. You’d be surprised.


KASPAROV: In some of the positions, like there are certain seven-pieces positions, when the win — and we’re talking about a forced win — can be reached within 500 moves. Now, 500 moves, I remember, I looked at some of the positions. Even at six-pieces positions . . .


COWEN: It’s not intelligible, what’s happening, right?


KASPAROV: It’s no intelligence at all. It’s just pieces moving around. There’s a certain position with king, two rooks, a knight on one side, and king, two rooks on other side. It said mate in 490 moves, first mate.


Now, I can tell you that — even being a very decent player — for the first 400 moves, I could hardly understand why these pieces moved around like a dance. It’s endless dance around the board. You don’t see any pattern, trust me. No pattern, because they move from one side to another.


At certain points I saw, “Oh, but white position has deteriorated. It was better 50 moves before.” The question is — and this is a big question — if there are certain positions in these endgames, like seven-piece endgames, that take, by the best play of both sides, 500 moves to win the game, what does it tell us about the quality of the game that we play, which is an average 50 moves?


COWEN: It means we’re clueless in the entire universe. [laughs]


KASPAROV: Exactly. It’s an interesting philosophical question, and I have to confess, I don’t know the answer.


COWEN: Imagine how bad our politics would look. [laughs]


KASPAROV: Listen, that brings us to another point. Maybe with machines, we can actually move our knowledge much further, and we can understand how to play decent games at much greater lengths.


Going back to computer chess, and I don’t know how much time you spend looking at the computer matches.


COWEN: Quite a bit.


KASPAROV: I think you can confirm my observations that there’s something strange in these games. First of all, they are longer, of course. They are much longer because machines don’t make the same mistakes so they could play 70, 80 moves, 100 moves. So 70 to 80 moves is a normal length. By the way, it’s still 70, 80 moves. It’s way, way below what we expect from perfect chess.


That tells us that machines are not perfect. Most of those games are decided by one of the machines suddenly. Can I call it losing patience? Because you’re in a position that is roughly even. There’s maneuvers, and they go around.


The pieces are all over, and then suddenly one machine makes a, you may call, human mistake. Suddenly it loses patience, and it tries to break up without a good reason behind it.


COWEN: My driverless car will do this someday.


KASPAROV: That also tells us — that’s an interesting observation, from also my experience — that machines also have, you may call it, psychology, the pattern and the decision-making. If you understand this pattern, we can make certain predictions.


It’s not all predetermined. There’s so many things that can go one way or another. That means that we will not be run by these mystical AI. That it’s not perfect. It’s far from perfect. Still there are so many errors it doesn’t know how to cover, even setting aside a simple question whether the brains can function effectively separately from the body.


What does it mean that you have brains that are not part of our moving body? Can you separate it and still have the same effect? My answer is I don’t know. That’s what I believe is good because that tells us that there’s so much to learn in this process. For those who are predicting that AI is just around the corner and it’s going to wipe us out, they don’t know what they’re talking about.


COWEN: It’s more like a future of inscrutability and periodic surprises.


KASPAROV: We also know that the doomsaying has been always a very popular pastime when it comes to technology because it’s easy. It’s us against them, the race against the machines, the war against the machines. You can sell it.


It’s important that people will stop looking at this either from utopian point of view: “Oh, we’ll just get together. We’ll fly to Alpha Centauri with machines. They will serve us within this endless space flight.” Or, to the contrary: “It’s a Skynet that is going to kill all of us.”


It’s a process. It’s a process, and we should be objective. This is not too optimistic, not dark pessimism, but something that is more human, which is, let’s get objective. Let’s assess our chances, and let’s realize this is a process of developing further human civilization. Compared to the fears that people had about machines in 19th and 20th century, we’re not pioneers.




原文在这里





膜拜

鸡蛋
3

鲜花

路过

雷人

开心
1

感动

难过

刚表态过的朋友 (4 人)

发表评论 评论 (5 个评论)

回复 tanis 2017-5-11 02:43
他对AI的理解貌似还比较初步。ps,多年前就有人用算法写音乐了。最近的想法是用dp来写。估计明年可以在会议看到draft~
回复 Dracula 2017-5-11 02:49
tanis: 他对AI的理解貌似还比较初步。ps,多年前就有人用算法写音乐了。最近的想法是用dp来写。估计明年可以在会议看到draft~ ...
我觉得有意思的是他提到残局的时候,有的局面电脑算出的正解一直到取胜会有500步,而正解的前400步以他的水平竟然会完全看不懂,不知所云。
回复 tanis 2017-5-11 03:04
Dracula: 我觉得有意思的是他提到残局的时候,有的局面电脑算出的正解一直到取胜会有500步,而正解的前400步以他的水平竟然会完全看不懂,不知所云。 ...
是啊,从某种意义上说明这不符合人类现有认识水平的逻辑。。。但可以说正解不是不符合逻辑的。 如果生物大脑的极限就在于此的话,我对未来AI取代人类还是挺有信心的。。。 。。。

从小里说,现在用CNN做的研究也面临相似的问题,很多审稿人不愿意接受CNN本身是黑箱的现实。即使能提供更完美的解决方案,但是由于方案的实现过程无法用已知的理论解释,所以很容易被chanllage
回复 穿着裤衩裸奔 2017-5-11 21:46
tanis: 是啊,从某种意义上说明这不符合人类现有认识水平的逻辑。。。但可以说正解不是不符合逻辑的。 如果生物大脑的极限就在于此的话,我对未来AI取代人类还是挺有信 ...
超过人类只是时间问题
回复 loy_20002000 2017-5-12 11:26
Dracula: 我觉得有意思的是他提到残局的时候,有的局面电脑算出的正解一直到取胜会有500步,而正解的前400步以他的水平竟然会完全看不懂,不知所云。 ...
卡斯帕罗夫那战之后,有人用AI研究过传统上认为是和棋的残局,发现部分例和残局是可以赢的,有的超过500手,这类残局人类没法用理论总结。

facelist doodle 涂鸦板

您需要登录后才可以评论 登录 | 注册

手机版|小黑屋|Archiver|网站错误报告|爱吱声   

GMT+8, 2024-5-14 05:28 , Processed in 0.027240 second(s), 18 queries , Gzip On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.2

© 2001-2013 Comsenz Inc.

返回顶部