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2016-5-6 13:51 |
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Auto Industry’s EV Retreat Hastens
9 _2 e: Q. _5 y1 N8 ]" E- W汽车行业的电动汽车加速撤退
* A$ H) Y* L- r# V8 ~Ford’s move to delay certain projects follows rivals and comes as automakers face pressure from regulators and China; Z: M9 |2 t" {( P0 E& }& m
福特效仿竞争对手，推迟某些项目，同时汽车制造商面临来自监管机构和中国的压力3 C' T% W/ G* E1 P+ ]' M% p
1 ?% y9 P3 `5 qFord Motor’s decision this week to kill a highly touted future electric vehicle is a sign that the industry’s pullback on EVs is deepening.
6 M( t& ] O5 m7 m7 E. j福特汽车公司本周决定取消一款备受推崇的未来电动汽车，这表明该行业对电动汽车的缩减正在加深。
4 w, G+ A" O. F# }8 `' Y. K+ v( k; O' xThe Dearborn, Mich., automaker said Wednesday it is canceling plans for an electric, family-hauler sport-utility vehicle that Chief Executive Jim Farley once touted as a “personalized bullet train.” The move added to the drumbeat of news from carmakers of delayed or scrapped investments into EV models, factories and battery projects.
6 |& k5 p, B* Z8 `, R( J. q这家位于密歇根州迪尔伯恩的汽车制造商周三表示，将取消一款电动家庭运输运动型多功能车的计划，该车的首席执行官吉姆·法利曾将其吹捧为“个性化子弹头列车”。此举加剧了汽车制造商推迟或取消对电动汽车车型、工厂和电池项目投资的消息。
6 k* J$ J+ C' T" zGeneral Motors, Volkswagen, Mercedes and other automakers also have curbed their EV ambitions in recent months. Taken together, the walked-back plans are an acknowledgment that the big investments outlined at the start of the decade got ahead of the consumer’s appetite for a full switch to EVs. " H9 w: P* s0 t8 Q3 p7 q8 }4 n% ~
近几个月来，通用汽车、大众汽车、梅赛德斯奔驰和其他汽车制造商也遏制了其电动汽车野心。总而言之，这些撤回的计划承认了本世纪初概述的巨额投资超出了消费者全面转向电动汽车的胃口。 c6 w; O. s5 k( x7 N
While surveys have shown that as many as half of U.S. consumers are open to buying an electric car, their relatively high prices and concerns over charger availability are dissuading many. EV sales in the U.S. and other regions are still growing, but the pace of the increase has decelerated sharply, despite many new models hitting the market. $ f7 p% S$ K, y% s
尽管调查显示，多达一半的美国消费者愿意购买电动汽车，但其相对较高的价格以及对充电器可用性的担忧令许多人望而却步。美国和其他地区的电动汽车销量仍在增长，但尽管有许多新车型上市，但增长速度已大幅放缓。( G7 K+ }/ K0 M2 h
Delaying some EV investments will conserve cash and buy automakers time to lower their battery costs and other EV-related expenses, analysts say. The moves also will hurt major parts suppliers, which have to adjust their businesses.
* [$ Q" [1 b3 f1 ?0 n$ q分析师表示，推迟一些电动汽车投资将节省现金，并为汽车制造商赢得时间来降低电池成本和其他电动汽车相关费用。这些举措还将损害主要零部件供应商，它们必须调整业务。
P) A2 p. O1 f, |The cost of batteries is so high that most big automakers are losing money on their electric offerings. Ford’s EV business is on pace to lose about $5 billion this year. In the quarter ended June 30, it lost an average of about $44,000 per electric vehicle sold.
1 B/ F" T0 f1 W- [电池的成本如此之高，以至于大多数大型汽车制造商都在其电动产品上亏损。福特的电动汽车业务今年预计将损失约 50 亿美元。截至 6 月 30 日的季度，每售出一辆电动汽车平均损失约 44,000 美元。* u) {7 _% H# \7 I
Instead of offering the larger electric SUV, Ford said it would offer hybrid, gas-electric versions in the future as well as focus on smaller EVs. It also delayed for a second time the opening of a new EV truck factory being built in Tennessee, the largest investment in its 120-year history, which is now set for a 2027 opening, two years later than initially planned.
- i# L! b" r8 W# Q福特表示，未来将提供混合动力、油电混合动力版本，并专注于小型电动汽车，而不是提供大型电动SUV。它还第二次推迟了在田纳西州建造的新电动卡车工厂的开业，这是其 120 年历史上最大的投资，目前定于 2027 年开业，比原计划晚了两年。
8 N- d5 \6 G9 x% T: ?7 ]“This is clearly a tough decision in the short-term, but we think makes sense in the medium- to long-term given what will likely be subpar economics,” in the market for electric SUVs, Bank of America analyst John Murphy said in an investor note.
M5 |8 U- ^8 Y, j6 p美国银行分析师约翰·墨菲 (John Murphy) 表示，“这在短期内显然是一个艰难的决定，但考虑到电动 SUV 市场的经济状况可能会低于标准，我们认为从中长期来看这是有意义的”。投资者说明。" `$ F6 o2 F$ j, r" L. y1 t+ X
Despite the uncertain demand picture and heavy losses, auto executives say they aren’t walking away from the EV market. Two forces are prodding them to continue: toughening government emissions rules and the rapid global expansion of both Chinese EV makers and Tesla.
$ E) B P# `2 w2 V: n4 ?. ?尽管需求前景不明朗且损失惨重，但汽车业高管表示，他们不会放弃电动汽车市场。有两股力量促使他们继续前进：加强政府排放规定，以及中国电动汽车制造商和特斯拉在全球的快速扩张。+ A$ @8 f- Y$ G; k T5 E: @+ L9 r
In the U.S., for example, new federal emissions rules adopted this past spring will in effect require a heavy dose of electric cars by later in the decade. Many automakers also have said that, to comply, they will need to introduce more plug-in hybrid vehicles, which operate in electric mode for a number of miles before reverting to a gas engine.
! {4 i3 E2 _! t. o+ w& ]; s$ x; o例如，在美国，今年春天采用的新联邦排放规则实际上将要求在本十年晚些时候使用大量电动汽车。许多汽车制造商还表示，为了遵守规定，他们将需要推出更多插电式混合动力汽车，这些汽车在电动模式下运行数英里，然后再恢复为燃气发动机。3 A( v: J" k% T" q+ ?- f3 j3 X
“If you don’t meet your emissions requirements, you can’t sell vehicles,” Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler said Wednesday.
1 C/ x3 |$ E6 X( ^8 l; A“如果不符合排放要求，就无法销售车辆，”福特首席财务官约翰·劳勒周三表示。1 g7 j9 `: U2 n" V* x1 g
Meanwhile, China’s BYD and other EV makers are leveraging the country’s low-cost supply chain—notably cheaper batteries—to offer electric models that routinely undercut their competitors on price. Ford’s news release Wednesday outlining its revised EV plans and efforts to reduce costs referenced market-share pressure from China’s EV companies.
) x" F1 T1 ^8 J. S/ m/ i4 N3 r, G与此同时，中国的比亚迪和其他电动汽车制造商正在利用该国的低成本供应链（尤其是更便宜的电池）来提供通常在价格上低于竞争对手的电动车型。福特周三发布的新闻稿概述了其修订后的电动汽车计划和降低成本的努力，提到了来自中国电动汽车公司的市场份额压力。
# [4 N% V6 S# M, C1 y [, L, w, n1 [Western automakers must find ways to compete against their Chinese rivals, while also calibrating their electric rollouts to match more tepid EV demand in their home markets, analysts say.' W4 W+ C, c$ C" B; I
分析师表示，西方汽车制造商必须找到与中国竞争对手竞争的方法，同时调整其电动汽车的推出，以适应国内市场不温不火的电动汽车需求。
' m( g; o+ g: T) `. U$ JBetting on smaller EVs 押注小型电动汽车
6 ^* _* n% q6 _ u" v: `& lTo help reverse heavy losses on electric cars, Ford is betting on smaller vehicles to avoid the cost of the massive battery required to propel a larger SUV, like the one the company just canceled. 0 f6 v# y: ^/ [1 {2 t) p/ O0 B1 r
为了帮助扭转电动汽车的重大损失，福特正在押注小型车辆，以避免驱动大型SUV（例如该公司刚刚取消的那款）所需的大量电池的成本。
& k3 n6 G3 R" |, ]0 KThe focus on smaller EVs is a strategic shift from a few years ago when Ford made the F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck a core piece of its strategy. Big trucks have long been the profit engine for Ford, GM and Chrysler-parent Stellantis, all of which have prioritized pickups as they move into EVs. 2 Q4 Q; a1 p0 L- b- d6 X$ p0 s/ f
对小型电动汽车的关注是几年前福特将 F-150 Lightning 电动皮卡作为其战略核心部分的战略转变。长期以来，大型卡车一直是福特、通用汽车和克莱斯勒母公司 Stellantis 的利润引擎，所有这些公司在进军电动汽车领域时都优先考虑皮卡。/ v% {4 t, \* ~# U- S9 A: o
Ford’s battery-powered truck generated early buzz and customer wait lists, but it has suffered from pricing pressure as consumer demand for EVs waned, and the company’s losses on electrics have worsened. ! a2 ]4 t" k! Z! E. [+ _2 {
福特的电池驱动卡车早期引起了轰动，并引起了客户的等候名单，但随着消费者对电动汽车的需求减弱，该公司面临着定价压力，而且该公司在电动汽车方面的亏损进一步恶化。9 a* x" [7 T9 C! V
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Last month, Farley explained to Wall Street analysts that EVs have scrambled a long-held economic principle in Detroit: that bigger vehicles reap bigger profit margins.! ?0 W( Y- G4 S- H
上个月，法利向华尔街分析师解释说，电动汽车扰乱了底特律长期坚持的经济原则：更大的车辆获得更大的利润率。
8 Q4 m% }1 a3 ^“It’s exactly the opposite for EVs,” Farley said. “The larger the vehicle, the bigger the battery, the more pressure on margin because customers will not pay a premium” over a gas model simply because it is electric.# q1 s1 ?2 u' r9 D
“电动汽车的情况恰恰相反，”法利说。 “车辆越大，电池越大，利润压力就越大，因为客户不会仅仅因为它是电动的就为汽油车型支付溢价”。
3 Q9 ^! D5 J' E' P2 l! t4 \A Ford team has been working on a new, smaller mechanical layout of battery cells, motors and other components that it says will serve as the foundation for several new EV models. The company on Wednesday confirmed that a midsize pickup truck will be among the first vehicles to use that new system.
4 l, F. H: ^* z8 M x( X福特团队一直在研究一种新的、更小的电池、电机和其他部件的机械布局，据称这将成为几款新电动汽车车型的基础。该公司周三证实，一款中型皮卡车将是首批使用该新系统的车辆之一。( c- H( q+ @) P5 A- F
Aakash Arora, a partner in the automotive practice at Boston Consulting Group, said more car companies in the U.S. and Europe are likely to focus on fully electric systems for small- and midsize vehicles, and hybrids for larger ones.
" Z* v& N4 u/ Y& z/ a: B9 H2 Q' N波士顿咨询集团汽车业务合伙人阿卡什·阿罗拉 (Aakash Arora) 表示，美国和欧洲更多的汽车公司可能会专注于中小型车辆的全电动系统以及大型车辆的混合动力系统。' m2 X. d6 G# x0 x( S8 [# \* t5 W
“That is a multidecade journey for U.S. customer preferences to shift” away from bigger vehicles, he said.+ g) Y4 u) y$ H1 o5 p, n, s% A3 r
他说，“美国客户的偏好从大型车辆转向”是一个数十年的历程。
7 i' E) `7 U8 V! JImpact on suppliers 对供应商的影响1 j, H. t" d% k. a. _# r( o
Meanwhile, the industry’s cuts to planned EV output have sent ripples through the automotive supply base.
) v( k: X G. v- b8 R0 N与此同时，该行业削减计划中的电动汽车产量已对汽车供应基地产生了连锁反应。
$ i0 b& x; Y0 w: eMagna International, one of the world’s largest auto-parts suppliers, had been gearing up to make battery trays, seats and other parts for Ford’s now-scrapped electric SUV. Earlier this year, after Ford pushed back the model introduction timing, Magna rushed to find other customers and vehicle lines to salvage its capital spending for the SUV, Chief Financial Officer Patrick McCann said.
3 e d; J- w& g/ x/ Y$ m6 N全球最大的汽车零部件供应商之一麦格纳国际公司一直在准备为福特现已报废的电动SUV生产电池托盘、座椅和其他零部件。首席财务官帕特里克·麦肯 (Patrick McCann) 表示，今年早些时候，在福特推迟车型推出时间后，麦格纳急忙寻找其他客户和汽车生产线，以挽救 SUV 的资本支出。
" q$ o' b9 q8 P; ADana, another large supplier serving Ford and Stellantis, had expected sales of battery-cooling systems and other EV-related components to jump by about a third this year. This past month, Dana shaved that forecast, telling investors to expect minimal growth.
6 Z) Z s; S n1 L另一家为福特和 Stellantis 提供服务的大型供应商 Dana 预计今年电池冷却系统和其他电动汽车相关零部件的销量将增长约三分之一。上个月，达纳下调了这一预测，告诉投资者预计增长幅度将很小。
8 R. T7 _% g1 ETimothy Kraus, Dana’s chief financial officer, said during an Aug. 7 investor call that the company still believes EVs and hybrids will become significant parts of the U.S. industry.
0 o* ^) g+ V7 d) y0 E3 Y' g: W德纳首席财务官蒂莫西·克劳斯 (Timothy Kraus) 在 8 月 7 日的投资者电话会议上表示，该公司仍然相信电动汽车和混合动力汽车将成为美国工业的重要组成部分。 Q7 I( J. t- @. D
“Like most things that are new or disruptive, a lot of times forecasts and expectations can get ahead of some of the practicalities,” Kraus said.' }. S1 H& V3 _' i9 f/ a
“就像大多数新事物或颠覆性事物一样，很多时候预测和期望可能会超出一些实际情况，”克劳斯说。 |
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