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[经济] 机器人来了

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    楼主
    发表于 2017-9-29 09:54:05 | 显示全部楼层
    不爱吱声 发表于 2017-9-29 08:53
    8 `' e* J4 F: O6 m$ |( E0 R7 E( `1 N这个不难吧。
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    & ~& X; {2 w+ B/ d; G建立虚拟游戏世界,无业者有社会提供足够好的物质保障(这点对于机器主导的社会很容易实现 ...
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    按这个说法,美国现在opioid crisis就是未来发展的先兆了。在现实中绝望,那么就只有在虚幻中找快感了。你描绘的那个未来,对我来说其实是挺可怕的,更像是科幻小说或电影里的dystopia。, ~& R* G! J+ S+ L

    " {. @, o" |& X. d/ x4 e19世纪的时候,农民转变为工人并不难,都是体力劳动,尤其是unskilled labor,不需要多少培训。人工智能发展起来以后,不要说unskilled labor,就是绝大多数的skilled labor,包括各种白领工作,都很可能被机器取代。但是转移到更高层次开发研究那类工作,绝大多数人就是接受培训也不是想转就能转过去的。未来的科技发展如果延续过去40年的趋势的话,教育程度低,智力差一些的人的生活水平可能不会降低,但会一直停滞。而且今天好多白领,本科毕业,乃至研究生毕业的很多人也会越来越多的滑入这个阶层。社会收入财富分配的不均会愈加严重。社会也可能会变得更不稳定。人工智能的发展不见得是好事。
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    点评

    给力: 5.0 涨姿势: 5.0
    油菜: 5.0
    油菜: 5
      发表于 2017-9-29 11:00
    给力: 5 涨姿势: 5
    深感赞同  发表于 2017-9-29 10:39

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    煮酒正熟 + 6

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    沙发
    发表于 2017-9-29 11:48:52 | 显示全部楼层
    不爱吱声 发表于 2017-9-29 10:33) w1 Z$ h1 z* o* g6 B  C& p
    贫富差距会愈加严重不假,但社会更不稳定却不见得。
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    因为现实世界中的贫富差距在虚拟的世界中没有意义 ...

    - y% F, \* _* `美国的民意最近的10年是明显往左转的。不仅民主党内部Sanders那派的势力越来越大,就是共和党内,Trump在经济问题上的言论其实和民主党很相似(当然他的实际政策不是那么回事)。在国内政策上,劫富济贫这种呼声是越来越高,Trump的铁杆支持者里很多人都是支持的。国际政策上,赞同自由贸易的是越来越少,国家之间在经济上的摩擦冲突未来会是越来越多。而且他们的不满不是加一点福利就能够平息的。工作不仅是谋生的一种手段,对大多数人来说还是人生的意义之所在。人生没了意义,也就更可能会陷入绝望,现在美国的opioid危机就和这有很大关系。而这几年美国各种族,阶层之间矛盾加剧应该也是同这有关。随着人工智能的发展,这种情况变得更坏我觉得是很有可能的。+ i% I7 k6 @" p  |
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    你说的虚拟世界,其实就像是电影Matrix中那样。在那儿吃饭喝水都不用自己费力,管子插上就行了,更方便。我不知道现实中有几个人愿意生活在那种状态。如果人类的未来会那么发展的话,对我来说确实是很可怕的。) S! Z1 Q! I7 f3 ]

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    板凳
    发表于 2017-9-29 12:04:28 | 显示全部楼层
    煮酒正熟 发表于 2017-9-29 10:33
    . l/ f7 I$ b& Y5 \你描述的趋势 --- 就是在人工智能不受控制地随意发展的情况下社会和文化和个人生存状态的变化 --- 我比较 ...
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    象二当家说的,只要不是未来人类大同,世界政府的话,人工智能的发展是不可能真正限制的。这不仅是国家间经济上的竞争,还肯定会大规模应用在军事上。如果真是世界政府的话,我想了一下,但还真是不清楚是极权还是民主制度会更加限制这种技术发展,两边我都能想到它的arguments。极权政府可能会更加考虑怎么用这种技术来控制民众,但民主制度下自由多一些可能会更难控制。另外关于大资本,几个月前,比尔盖茨就建议对机器人额外加税,收上来的钱可以补贴工人。大资本中的有识之士也会有很多支持对人工智能技术进行限制的。
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    ' a5 o$ J9 L. Q$ v现在Trump的铁杆支持者把矛头是指向移民,外国人。10年、20年之后很可能敌人就会变为机器。那时欧美的政治同现在相比可能会有非常大的变化。$ P4 M+ V# d# u. u& Q, `, x

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    地板
    发表于 2017-9-29 18:11:07 | 显示全部楼层
    爱之深责之切 发表于 2017-9-29 14:13
      z8 |* {8 n5 X' @: X6 o% g机器人时代,能有工作的除了政府管理者,搞文学艺术影视的、搞医学研究的、搞新算法研究的和搞其它学科研究 ...

    2 f  L% E5 g& G; i我以前在日志里转过一篇文章,现在已经有写小说,写电影剧本的人工智能了,结果也挺有意思的,而且这还是没有大公司真正投资研究。在可预见的未来能写出战争与和平的人工智能应该还不太可能,但是能写通俗小说,编个普通的电影电视剧本的人工智能我觉得10年、20年很可能就会出现。一般的流行音乐更没多少创造性,AI能作词作曲应该也不难。- s& u5 i  J1 c  M# o

    7 i( g7 R% N* o: y搞研究,就经济学来说,其实绝大多数论文包括不少发表在最好杂志里的,也没有很多创造性。尤其是经验研究,分析数据的那种论文,我觉得10年、20年之内能出现成批生产论文的机器是很有可能的。而且人的论文还有可能犯低级错误,还可能造假,机器不会,它们比人是有优势的。其它的学科我猜应该也差不多,除了很顶尖的,需要很多创造性的研究工作,机器取代不了,绝大多数研究人员的工作其实也不安全。4 v. j' X, d% j+ L" e4 r
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    能生产出能修机器,至少是能日常维护的机器人应该更容易。我是觉得未来除了极其顶尖的人才,超过99%的人的工作都会被机器取代。3 E( U4 ^% G& m; c% \8 T) p
  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    5#
    发表于 2017-9-30 05:52:29 | 显示全部楼层
    Men at tech fair molest £3,000 sex robot so much it’s left broken and ‘heavily soiled’
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    3 F: h; Z% L/ phttp://metro.co.uk/2017/09/27/me ... led-6960778/?ito=fb
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    0 G0 F! b+ g1 ~# Y) MSamantha’s developer Sergi Santos from Barcelona, Spain said that people at the Arts Electronica Festival in Linz treated the doll ‘like barbarians’.
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    7 A+ a9 C) M+ F$ sThe doll – which reacts intelligently to touch, and talks – was left filthy and broken by the never-ending male attention, and has now been sent off for repair. 2 B* B0 ]* R; P3 H) p& m: h/ x
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    According to Austrian media, who tested Samantha, she reacts when someone massages her breasts, by moaning.
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    9 X: t% ?( o/ ^6 s/ j$ k‘People can be bad. Because they did not understand the technology and did not have to pay for it, they treated the doll like barbarians.’ 9 D) [: `* g1 R4 k; l- z

    / @/ C3 e7 ]% W0 q! {- \Mr Santos said Samantha had to be sent back in a parcel to Barcelona for repairs and cleaning, but he added: ‘Samantha can endure a lot, she will pull through.’+ _: M9 X0 ^4 l( m" j) Y; u! ^
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    Previous surveys have suggested that up to half of men would consider having sex with a lifelike robot.
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    Writing last year, David Levy author of Love and Sex With Robots said, ‘This coming wave of sex robots will be humanlike in appearance and size. They will have human-like genitals. And they will allow intercourse according to their owner’s sexual orientation and tastes.
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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
  • 签到天数: 1017 天

    [LV.10]大乘

    6#
    发表于 2017-10-4 09:06:48 | 显示全部楼层
    煮酒正熟 发表于 2017-9-29 10:335 n7 ?+ H- r( G4 x  t9 P( W4 |/ q
    你描述的趋势 --- 就是在人工智能不受控制地随意发展的情况下社会和文化和个人生存状态的变化 --- 我比较 ...

    * O. ^& N! ^" f& M$ K* O0 I加黑的那句是我加的。+ O  x" i) s, f( u' `( n2 q$ _
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    How sex robots could help with the nuts and bolts of relationships( J1 m! i$ {) R4 I
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    https://www.theguardian.com/comm ... ts?CMP=share_btn_tw$ U" }; d4 h& E# o

      }- @" V9 E! L9 ~+ z6 J3 t) D  `Sex robots do not currently exist. While some early proto-sexbots have been developed, there is as yet no technology that offers a plausibly realistic approximation of sex with a human being. However, sexbots are coming – in the near future, we will be able to have sex with robot partners that can speak and move, and that look very much like real people. Many people are concerned that their impact may be detrimental. Their concerns are not all unwarranted, but there are also arguments in favour of this technology that have not been adequately articulated. Sexbots may even have the potential to enhance human relationships.% a  ]6 T" H& J2 e5 w; i' T

    2 ^; z! h7 ?' EWe currently ask a lot of our relationships. We want emotionally compatible companions. We want someone to share household duties and finances. We want someone who will be a good co-parent to our children. And on top of all of this, we want someone who will excite us sexually and meet our sexual needs – forever. The model is not working. As the author Dan Savage says: “Relationship graveyards around the world are crowded with tombstones that read: ‘Everything was great … other than the sex.’“
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    ' ~& F* E6 R; C. M) p6 WCould sexbots help? There are reasons to think they might. They have the potential to address one of the main sources of dissatisfaction in relationships: the simple need for variety. In a Ted talk, psychotherapist Esther Perel has argued that a major challenge to “mating in captivity”, as she calls long-term relationships, is that of finding a way to meet our need both for security and for surprise. Faced with this intractable dilemma, many people find themselves drawn to infidelity. To avoid this, some couples experiment with non-monogamy – but even its proponents admit this solution is “complicated” and “not for everyone”.. r: F& t; U4 o, h* h1 p: a
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    Sexbots may offer a solution that is simpler and less painful than either of these. They can provide people with novelty and variety without threatening the relationship itself. They can also address the problem of discrepancies in the desire for sex, which relationship therapists say is the most common sexual problem among couples seeking therapy. When one person persistently wants more sex than their partner, a robot could bridge the gap.
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    Commentators have speculated that the users of sexbots will be mostly men. But there is reason to wonder whether this will prove true. The problem of maintaining desire in a long-term relationship is one that disproportionately affects women. Studies indicate that women’s libido drops off over time not because women are less sexual than men, but because many simply find the prospect of sex with the same person for an entire lifetime to be less than arousing. This is compounded by the fact that men are not especially good at doing the things women want in bed.
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    Women already dominate the market for sex toys. If we remove the stigma surrounding sex robots, it is not unreasonable to think the same might be true of the sexbot market. Not only can sex robots be programmed to do exactly what women want, they can be made with physical features that can enhance women’s pleasure in ways a human partner cannot.1 f* C3 ^1 X: V: k7 x
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    While many women want variety, they also, understandably, want to feel safe around their partners – as do men. This is particularly true of survivors of sexual violence. Commentators worry that sexbots will have personalities that are passive and obedient. The concern is that this will accustom their male users to expect the same from their human partners. But for a survivor of sexual trauma, a partner who is entirely unthreatening and who always follows your lead may not seem like such a horrible prospect. Sexbots may prove to be an important therapeutic tool in helping trauma survivors heal, and to transition back into relationships with human partners.% a( Q, V7 x! e
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    Variety is not the only source of tension in relationships. Many partners have different sexual preferences. One person may be into BDSM or other kinks that do not appeal to her partner, for instance. Sexbots might allow each member of the couple to pursue these kinks, when they want it, without destroying the relationship.
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    In extreme cases, having a sexbot may allow people to give up on sex altogether and live in a companionate marriage. They may do so for their children’s sake, or just because they enjoy the other person’s company too much to trade in the relationship for one that might have more sex but that is less emotionally satisfying. Is this so bad? Many people do it already. Sexbots offer such people a chance to avoid a life from which sexual satisfaction has been removed entirely.$ v: C: m4 W! D- q
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    We should by no means imagine that everyone will see a sexbot as an alternative to a partner. A sexbot might actually be something a couple shares, the same way that many sex toys are used as part of sex with one’s partner.
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    3 P& [& p. E7 m9 WSex robots will not be for everyone, obviously, and their use within relationships will require discussion and negotiation. They will certainly not solve anyone’s problems by magic. But used with due care, and with the consent of everyone involved, they have the potential to make our relationships stronger and more interesting. There is no need to call in the blade runners just yet.' \1 ?5 H  V; }! V5 `; O9 {+ s- r

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  • TA的每日心情
    慵懒
    2020-7-26 05:11
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    [LV.10]大乘

    7#
    发表于 2017-11-17 21:34:22 | 显示全部楼层
    煮酒正熟 发表于 2017-9-29 10:334 x* N% Z0 R2 x6 `6 g
    你描述的趋势 --- 就是在人工智能不受控制地随意发展的情况下社会和文化和个人生存状态的变化 --- 我比较 ...

      d6 W: o- v1 H: x  R: E7 z体操机器人
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    机器人用在军事上也不会很遥远。! s, M( t& h1 p( D! s
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  • TA的每日心情
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    [LV.10]大乘

    8#
    发表于 2017-12-2 11:42:01 | 显示全部楼层
    煮酒正熟 发表于 2017-9-29 10:33
    . w) C* ?% e/ K你描述的趋势 --- 就是在人工智能不受控制地随意发展的情况下社会和文化和个人生存状态的变化 --- 我比较 ...
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    刚看到的,是对英国电视台最近的一部纪录片The Sex Robots Are Coming的评论。我在网上找了一下,包括盗版网站,没找到视频,就只能看文字了。现在好像研究性机器人的公司很多,竞争也挺激烈。挺有可能10年之内就会出现不仅外表很逼真,有表情,有喜怒哀乐,而且能跟人随便交谈,有personality的性机器人了。而且一旦能大规模生产,成本也会降下去,可能1000美元就能买一个。那时候婚姻、家庭、乃至男女关系会怎么变成什么样子就不知道了。
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    * w) n" D+ U/ D) B- ?* WThis week on Channel 4, we watched a cheery 58-year-old American engineer called James going on a first date. He was meeting Harmony, an extravagantly shapely blonde who was obliging enough to be wearing a low-cut crop top and tiny shorts, and who greeted him with a charming smile. After a spot of small talk and a dumb-blonde joke, she then alternated between assuring him how great he was and inviting him to masturbate over her. ‘You’re awesome,’ a visibly smitten James declared — apparently not at all bothered that Harmony was a robot.
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    4 K/ |2 ~2 ~/ L# V3 c8 K  W$ nThis scene — clearly regarded as a heartwarming one by Harmony’s maker Matt McMullen — provided the big finish to Thursday’s The Sex Robots Are Coming, which did its best to take a measured, non-sniggering, non-aghast look at the latest developments in the lucrative sex-doll market.* Z$ K% w) H% I  c" d

    4 e/ l% G7 x. v+ f: l5 EUntil recently, the problem with such dolls has been that, while they may look increasingly realistic (albeit from the more pornographic end of the reality spectrum), their social skills are distinctly limited. But now Matt’s company is one of several competing to produce dolls that can recognise their owners and have proper conversations. If all goes well, customers will even be able to select their new doll’s personality, with options including shy, talkative and — for added realism, some unreconstructed males might think — moody.9 {- T% X& ~5 O: m) }5 X9 O

    . }. H0 b  U+ u6 [/ I. R0 mNot that James doesn’t have a soft spot for the old type too. When we first met him, he proudly introduced us to ‘the lovely April’ — his favourite of the three non-robot dolls with whom he shares his life. (‘It’s not to demean women,’ he explained as he flipped the naked April over on his bed and slapped her bottom. ‘It’s more an appreciation of their physical beauty.’) More surprisingly, perhaps, he also introduced us to Tine, his wife of 36 years, who insisted that James is ‘a great husband’.
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    6 U+ Z9 i! M" n+ vTine was still present when James told us that April is ‘the perfect girl’ — although not when he went into some detail about how exciting his and April’s sex life is. Or when he said that if he had to choose between her and his wife, he really doesn’t know which one he’d go for. And with that, he went back to gently washing April’s face and tenderly removing her head to repair her neck.
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    But, it seems, even the lovely April mightn’t be able to hang on to her man now that his eye’s been caught by a newer model. So what about the ethics of sleeping with robot sex dolls?
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    + P. z+ S2 s* {; QMatt duly took a rather pious line, arguing that any objections from oppressive bigots will gradually go the same way as homophobia and transphobia. Indeed, he clinchingly predicted, within 50 years, sex robots will be as widespread as porn. (So that’s OK, then.) Less thrilled was Kathleen Richardson, feminist academic and founder of the sci-fi-sounding Campaign Against Sex Robots. On Thursday, Richardson was allowed approximately a minute to make her case that these objects objectify women — but, given that the English language was on her side, she made it persuasively nonetheless. Even so, James’s own verdict was possibly the most telling of all for the future of male-robot relations. ‘It might be selfish,’ he said. ‘But I’m all right with that.’# a- u( n, H2 h5 n5 l

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