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	包皮、艾滋病、烟草院士	医药健康	京虎子 2013-1-18	16 3729	冰山 2013-2-15 00:57
	美媒：共和党大佬多尔策划了“川菜通话”台湾送了14万美元	沁园春茶馆	龙血树 2016-12-7	1 28	龙血树 2016-12-7 14:51

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分享微软业务重心转移将于下月关闭中文门户网站: 热度 2 gordon 2016-5-10 11:30; 【微软业务重心转移将于下月关闭中文门户网站】微软将于下月关闭其中文门户网站，眼下，该公司正将重点从提供线上内容转向为Windows 10设备提供软件和服务。（华尔街日报）; 462 次阅读|1 个评论

分享言简意赅谈经济现状（转）: 热度 7 gordon 2016-3-8 14:59; 我今天既不是唱空也不是唱多，而是实事求是评价形势。这形势就是中国面临一场经济动荡。实际上我在一年多以前，2014年12月份的时候我来这个论坛讲过一次，当时有来听过的应该记得，我预言说未来中国三到五年内发生一次经济衰退或者金融危机是大概率事件。现在距离我上次讲话已经过去了一年多的时间，所以今天减掉一年:中国两到四年内，发生经济衰退或者金融危机是一个大概率事件。这不是批评我们的政策，也不是指桑骂槐批评中国的社会制度。有些东西是客观发生的，一个国家的经济盛极而衰物极必反，换谁也没办法避免。如果一定要问我对具体的政府或领导的看法，那我今天这个场合必须唱赞歌：中国现在的领导是非常英明的。很多人容易绕进细节出不来，但事情是要看大方向的。比如说你要判断一家公司，难道不先看这个公司的领导人怎么样？我2013年的时候在华尔街日报发过一篇文章《大公司是怎么被官二代CEO弄垮的》，大家有兴趣可以找来看。假如说各位我们是来炒股的，有这么一个企业，这个企业的CEO被架空了，凡事都到董事长那去汇报。营销活动CEO说了不算，要到董事长那里有个营销小组；生产经营CEO没权，要到董事长那里有个生产经营管理小组。这也不一定不好，有可能这个董事长很能干。那你第二步再看董事长的简历，他是从国企调过来的。国企也有很多很成功的，有许多世界五百强。但董事长来自一个三线兵工厂，他最青春的时候是在山沟里面度过的。你要考虑这样一个董事长有没有能力应对现在经济情况下复杂的变化的形势。如果你从这几项来判断的话，我就问你这家公司的股票你买不买？你不要跟我分析这家公司的市场很好产业很发达，工程师很能干，这些都是具体细节。你要看它的董事长怎样。今天这个场合我必须说：我对中国现在的领导人很有信心。前不久我们习主席到中央电视台去视察，年轻的记者握着习主席温暖的大手，回来都没舍得洗手。再往前，今年春晚办的这么好，有专家开了一个座谈会说95%的人都对这个春晚很满意。见微知著，现在谁还敢说没信心？你站起来说没信心让我看看？当然我们只能说：越来越有信心。信心归信心，前面说了，客观情况不依人意志为转移。我们虽然有一位伟人的领导，还是要实事求是看到情况的艰难程度。中国目前的面临的是一场通货紧缩危机。很多人奇怪，中国现在货币增长速度大大超过GDP增长的速度，难道不是通货膨胀吗？实际上这恰恰是通货紧缩的一种现象。货币供应量要乘以货币周转率，才等于经济总量。打个比方：你办一个工厂也好，开一家网店也好，都需要加快存货周转。存货周转的次数决定了你的利润高低。如果你的网店年初进了一批货，年底还没有销出去，你再进更多的货有什么用呢？没用。同样，对宏观经济来说，如果货币周转很慢，你再增发新的钞票也没有用。经济学家的术语叫流动性陷阱。流动性陷阱出现时，大量新增货币不能有效增加经济需求，需求停滞甚至萎缩，经济增长速度远低于货币供应增长，这就是通货紧缩的迹象。通货紧缩是我一年前讲的内容。前年12月我来这里，做了几条预言。其中之一就是大宗商品的价格下跌。这在去年一年完全被验证了。其次就是企业利润率下降。我想在座的有做企业的，或者可以问问身边做企业的朋友，这几年是不是企业的利润率在下降，这是通货紧缩的一个标志。企业利润率下降导致投资回报率下降，进而生产性资产的价格下降。严格来说，这会造成股票价格相应下降，进入熊市。但是股票的高流动性特点，使得它有可能短期内逆势上涨。这也是前年12月我做的预言。因为通货紧缩的时候政府为了救经济拼命增发货币，新增货币又进不了经济运行，怎么办呢？找那些高流动性的资产！所以股票这种高流动性的资产短期内会逆势上涨。当时提问的时候就有人问我具体怎样，那时候记得上证综指是2000多点，我说至少会炒到3500点，你们为什么不跟着炒呢？当然我当时也警告大家了，这种上涨是是一个短期的趋势，所以要快进快出。所以我想去年也许有人听了我的预言去炒股了，但是有没有听清楚我后半句，没及时退出来，这就不能怪我。实际上我后来在微博上也预言了。央行第一次降息之后，我发了一条微博，说央行降息一鼓作气再而衰三而竭。如果连续降息次数太多，说明经济形势很糟糕了，降息的效应抵消不了大家认为经济很坏的恐慌心理。所以连续降息三次之后，差不多可以撤了。大概央行第四次降息降准的时候股市还没跌，我又发了一条微博，说当初讲一鼓作气再而衰三而竭，看来说得早了一些，但是我又补了一句，早也早不了太多。结果记得在第五次降息降准的时候股市就应声崩盘了。通货紧缩去年我着重讲了一个现象，没有分析通货紧缩发生的深层原因。经常有人质问我，怎么可能通货紧缩？政府可以印钞票，钞票多了不就解决通缩了吗？这种认为货币就是印出来的是陈旧的货币理论。我们很多朋友记得的还是中学教科书上说的：纸币发行量超过了所需，就会通货膨胀。但这种看法，没有看到货币的实质，没有理解货币在真实市场上的创造过程。当代金融的一个比较主流的流派认为，货币是信用创造出来的。传统货币学说认为货币最早是用珍稀物品比如说贵金属做为中介物，取代易货贸易。比如山羊换大米，一手交羊一手交米自然容易。如果今天交羊，明天交米，就需要用贵金属作为易货贸易的中介，于是产生了货币。但实际上，这种易货贸易如果有信用，是不需要贵金属作为中介的。咱们两个人的交易，你今天借我的五斗米不就是一句话的事情嘛，明天我还你两头羊。再引入第三方周转，你告诉张三我欠你两头羊，张三先给你一包盐，明天他来找我要羊——完全都是口头承诺，无需中介物。这种信用交换就是货币行为。如果我给你立个字据这就相当于纸币了。再进一步，票号的老板开了一个银票，银票就是一张纸，这张纸为什么能当银子用，因为大家相信它。所以信用产生货币。而政府发行的货币无非就是用政府的强力信用来替代民间信用。如果大家认为要改朝换代，政府没信用了，它发的货币就垮台。那么信用又是怎么创造出来的？在现代社会市场经济里面的信用是靠什么创造的？我这里稍微岔开点话题，讲几句市场经济的背后道理。那就是“人权创造市场，法治创造信用”。我们有些中国人不明白为什么西方人总是讲人权，有什么用，人权能当饭吃吗？人权就能当饭吃！因为没有人权就没有现代市场经济。市场经济的基础是平等交换，没有人权你凭什么跟我平等交换？我身高力大直接抢不就完了？我爸是大官，你的产品我直接拿了不就完了？只有当国王不能随意没收你们家的财产的时候，他不得不跟你买才有市场经济。如果这个市场上存在一个超级权力，不仅仅超级权力本身不会和你公平交易，所有市场上的人也都会扭曲。如果国王可以随意没收别人财产，我为什么要辛辛苦苦在市场上挣钱？不如天天拍国王马屁，国王一高兴，看谁不顺眼，那个人是坏蛋汉奸，给他抓起来财产没收全给我。这比干什么都来钱快。所以如果没有人权，市场经济的秩序就会遭到严重破坏，人们就会喜欢依附于权力去发财，而不是通过公平竞争。人权创造平等交易，交易创造市场。只有平等交易还不够，咱俩是平等的，平等地互相骗那也不行。今天你骗我一笔明天我骗你一笔，交易成本会十分高昂，信用会仅仅限于互相信赖的熟人圈。怎么扩大信用的范围？完全靠良心不行，必须有法治。人权创造基本的市场行为，法治才能够创造现代金融体系。好多中国人搞不明白为什么我们国家的金融体系发达不了，其实根子就是缺乏法治。比如说股市，你没有法治，上市公司随便编个假的理由把你的钱全圈走了，最后只罚他五十万人民币。这样的老板不给他抓起来枪毙几个你这个股市怎么可能好呢？没有基本的法治不可能有一个正常的金融体系。这话我可以放在这，中国直到它有一个健全而且严明的法治的那一天，这个股市就是一个赌场，不要指望在里面搞价值投资，因为在一个不受惩罚的地方会骗的人远远比做事的人来钱快。发达国家比如美国，很多金融衍生产品，那个就是一份合同，一大摞纸，大家买来买去根本都看不到背后的实际项目。在中国这种东西怎么可能做？敢吗？我在美国做一个面向中国人的私募基金，60多页合同，有国内土豪就说我不看也看不懂，我就相信你这个人，你担保回报我就投了。笑话我一个人浑身是铁能打几颗钉？我担保200亿美元然后跑路了怎么办？你一定要仔细看合同。但是对国内土豪来说，他非常难以接受这几十张纸，签个字，然后就值几百万这个想法。他自己不懂，也不雇律师，就是要看我这个人肉身，要看实体项目。这就是没有法治的情况下，一个人只能靠自己的实体信用，你能创造的信用就是十分有限的。随着经济增长，信用就会感到不足。中国的法治现在遇到一些问题已经不是说它不能够支持一个现代金融体系的程度了。随着我们经济发展，它已经是落后到不足以支持基本的经济活动的信用创造了。当缺乏法治来创造信用的候，也就是现代货币创造不足的时候，人们就会回到古老的时代的货币层次上面去，那就是实物货币。用硬资产来代替货币。如果大家学过货币入门，可能听说一个故事：有一个岛国，岛上通行的货币就是大石头，这就是硬资产代替货币。实物货币有个问题，就是供应有限。岛上就那么多石头，所以经济发展到一定程度石头是不够用的。再要发展，怎么办呢？比如说岛上只有十块大石头，原来整个岛只有二十头羊，所以一块石头两头羊。发展到有一百头羊只能是一个石头十头羊。所以当这个信用不能创造，大家都要靠实物的硬资产作为信用依托时，最后结果就是通货紧缩，货币不足，而支持货币创造的相应硬资产必须要涨价。中国这些年我们创造货币的大石头是什么？土地。如果办过企业的肯定知道，在中国你有没有可能说我有个很好的项目我就去银行贷款？不行。银行问你抵押物在哪呢？所以一定要先拿这个项目的概念去忽悠政府。政府也没钱，就批给你一块土地。土地拍给你一百亿，你付了定金十个亿，到银行把这画一个概念图，我上面要盖个楼，值三百亿。银行说这下妥了，有三百亿的硬资产，我可以贷款给两百亿，你把一百亿的土地金交了，还剩下一百亿可以办企业了。这个例子举的夸张简化，但意思就是这样。所以中国为什么炒土地炒地皮？没有土地创造不了信用，没有信用你的经济没办法周转。在中国，土地就相当于很落后的岛国上的一块块大石头，是我们信用创造过程的核心，也就是中国经济运行的核心。刚才说硬资产作为信用依托的问题是其供给有限，到最后大石头涨价。所以你们就知道为什么中国土地必须涨价。不涨价就进行不下去。不仅仅是说土地跌价之后投资人会亏钱，而是整个经济就会停滞。某个企业弄了一块地五十亿，抵押了借了三十亿就办了企业，第二年能连本带利赚回来吗？有时候可以，但多数时候没那么容易。还不出来。还不出来怎么办呢？这个土地评估到八十亿不就还出来了嘛，八十亿贷四十亿不就把三十亿还了嘛，还剩十亿又可以投资。接着干。明年这四十亿贷款怎么办？土地评估到一百亿不就完了嘛。当然，实际操作中同一块土地不可能这样重复抵押，但你把整个经济活动作为一个整体来观察，它就是这么回事。中国的地价为什么这样往上涨，它背后是地价在创造信用，没有这个魔术整个经济活动就停滞了。土地的上涨是有极限的。如果你一块石头换一千头羊的时候傻瓜都觉得不对了，这石头怎么能换一千头羊呢？大家互相蒙都蒙不下去了。这块地怎么能值一千亿？银行也不敢接着往下蒙了。这就到头了。到头之后呢？信用消灭！因为以前这个企业每年都这么玩魔术，多开心，一旦变成习惯你觉得钱来得好快。这老板先买豪车开着，再盖个总部大厦又花掉几亿，但是不怕，回头评估抵押一下还能贷款十几亿。所以你看中国现在企业利润率往下走，企业估值往上涨。流传的段子说：企业的全年利润不够买一套房，但是卖1%的股份就可以买好几套房子。利润往下走，估值往上涨就是玩这种资产升值的魔术。当你玩不下去的时候是一个什么样的状况？大家可以想象。那么第二道保险，就是政府信用背书。政府信用本来是货币信用的最后一道防线。但是在中国，政府信用已经通过给土地信用背书的方式，直接渗透到了经济的各个环节。换言之，就是政府滥用自己的信用。本来这个土地值这么多钱大家也不相信，但政府控制土地供应，大家相信政府一定会让它涨的。其结果，就是一旦出问题，信用收缩，中国就没有一个可以出来收拾残局的“最后守夜人” 了。因为政府自己就套在里面了。现在政府也害怕，在收缩信用。过去如果发生圈钱跑路P2P之类的事情，只要一打横幅政府就给你赔钱是不是？现在打横幅也不管用了，政府也轻易不赔了。所以政府信用的扩张也到头了，除了这两个信用中国还有第三个信用创造途径，就是利用国际信用体系。做过企业的都知道，大家宁可做外贸利润低一点，不愿做内贸利润高一点，因为外国人说话比较算数一点。其实外国人也有坑蒙拐骗，但是一般的老牌市场经济国家，的确比我们法治严明，信用的确好。所以国际信用也是过去几年我们信用扩张的一个途径。外贸的单子你到银行抵押能贷到款，内贸的应收账款就在银行贷不到钱。前者就创造出来了信用，而后者就不能。所以对外贸易的扩张也是我们过去这些年信用扩张的一个来源。但是中国的外贸占GDP的比例也高得快到头了。我们外贸还是顺差，但是绝对规模的扩大已经是停滞不前了。而且国际形势也对我们不利。以前加入WTO世贸组织，带动中国的信用大大扩张了一次，经济繁荣了十几年。现在人家要搞一个TPP，不带我们玩了所以在国际信用扩张方面我们现在也遇到严重的问题。基于这三点，我们习惯的三种信用扩张方式都到头或者快到头了，结论就是：中国目前的通货紧缩是无解的。当然也有解，解决的途径只有一条，就是加强法治建设。但第一我现在看不到政府痛下树立法治的决心，相反我看到最近两年某些地方的法治是在倒退。第二就算下了决心，也不是一日之功。所以我可以明确跟大家说：目前的经济形势没有好的药方，最好的情况就是维持住现在的规模。然而我们又有很大一部分的无效投资，还在不断消灭信用。本来土地评估价格一百亿，最后这个楼建成之后完全卖不掉，好几年了已经烂尾了，银行也不好意思继续评一百亿了，改八十亿吧，消灭掉二十亿的信用。这种无效投资消灭信用情况会不断发生。如果你不继续扩张信用，单是维持现状都不能够，必然会发生信用萎缩。信用萎缩就会使经济陷入衰退。如果你要不让经济衰退怎么办呢？只有最后一招：信用不够，劣质信用来凑。这就是俗称的“大放水”，其实就是降低信用门槛。社会信用不足的情况下，照道理，银行贷款是贷不出去的，没有好项目。也就是大家说的“资产荒”。即使政府宽松银根，降息降准，货币还是难以周转。如果当局要强行对抗信用紧缩，只能用行政手段，降低管制标准，甚至采取窗口指导等手段，刺激银行把贷款放出去。结果就是劣质信用泛滥。大放水的情况下骗子最活跃。因为一旦降低了信用的门槛，劣质信用也能达成交易拿到贷款，那么我为什么要辛辛苦苦维持自己的信用？吹牛谁不会呀？你说回报8%，我就敢说回报30%。投资人一看呢？反正你俩都可能是骗子，干脆投给那个话说得更好听的，30%回报那个。这就产生了劣币驱逐良币、劣质信用驱逐优良信用的情况。我们看去年以来各种互联网金融、P2P等等，其实就是取消管制，降低信用创造的门槛。结果当然是骗子泛滥。P2P的问题开始暴露了，跑路的倒闭的多了，这些只是第一波。我们还看到鼓励创业创新，政府和银行各种支持，一点工作经历都没有的大学生也出来创业办公司，这同样是降低信用创造的门槛。大学生当然有认真做事的，但是媒体上尤其自媒体上热门狂转的那些大学生创业的神话，我可以大胆说一句，十个有九个都是骗子。很快这些万众创业的公司会纷纷倒闭，又是一大批坏账。在信用不足情况下强行刺激经济增长，只能是劣质信用泛滥，拖垮金融体系自身。这样玩个几年，结果一定是金融危机。所以要么经济衰退要么金融危机，两条路选一条。; 514 次阅读|5 个评论

分享华尔街日报力挺我大蛋挞帮！: 热度 20 holycow 2016-2-24 03:24; http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-big-data-future-has-arrived-1456184869 话说，这位吃过蛋挞吗？ The Big-Data Future Has ArrivedIt is now possible to measure everything, from the movement of billions of stars to each heartbeat. Big data, the tech story of a few years ago, is now beginning to show big results. The science of using powerful computers, ubiquitous sensors and the Web to crunch mountains of raw data to uncover previously invisible insights is increasingly used in businesses, universities and government agencies. It is transforming our understanding of everything from fetal development to cosmology. Already, thanks to big data, we have learned that toddlers learn language not from repetition—which we’ve thought for centuries—but by hearing words used in multiple contexts. We’ve also found that premature babies are at greatest risk when their heartbeats are stable (healthy baby hearts are more erratic). Researchers are making inroads into understanding the external influences on autism (carbon-dioxide levels, room temperature) and how urban crime can largely be isolated to just a few blocks, even individual buildings. These and other big-data breakthroughs can be seen Wednesday night in the PBS documentary “The Human Face of Big Data,” based on a 2012 book of the same name, to which I contributed an essay. We can now identify impending bouts of depression, even suicidal tendencies, by looking at the changing lifestyle (social media usage, diminishing movement) of potential victims. And, using Google search data, epidemiologists can spot an emerging epidemic before doctors do. One of the most extraordinary features of big data is that it signals the end of the reign of statistics. For 400 years, we’ve been forced to sample complex systems and extrapolate. Now, with big data, it is possible to measure everything, from the movement of billions of stars to every beat of the human heart. Big data is also making its way, almost silently, into everyday life. In Israel, 80% of the citizenry contribute traffic data to help each other commute via the WAZE app on smartphones, increasingly the platform of choice for big data. California is looking at using the accelerometers in smartphones, which detect sudden motion, to create an early-warning system for earthquakes that will be much faster than government-installed devices. Farmers in the Midwest will soon have measurements taken in their fields nearly down to individual plants—and that will combine data on soil, water and weather to come up with trillions of scenarios for insurance coverage. Victims of natural disasters are now being pinpointed and given aid through real-time analysis of tweets, instant messages and phone calls. Even one of the oldest of arts, geography, is being revolutionized with maps that will change by the second. But it is in the commercial world where big data has seen its greatest inroads to date. A recent survey by consultants NewVantage Partners has found that the number of U.S. firms using big data in the past three years has jumped 58 percentage points to 63% penetration—while 70% of firms now say that big data is of critical importance to their firms, an astounding jump from 21% in 2012. That’s one of the fastest tech-adoption rates ever. Meanwhile, the title of chief data officer—the C-Suite manager of big data—a title that until recently didn’t even exist, is now found in 54% of companies surveyed. The commercial impact of this revolution can be found everywhere from products and services that can predict the unique needs of individual customers, to improved credit precision, to stores that adapt (through special discounts and deals that pop up on your smartphone) to each customer who walks through the door. To date, much of this activity has remained hidden from sight. But soon it will burst forth much more publicly—and the experiences of daily life will be profoundly transformed into a new set of personalized, predictive and empowered experiences we can barely imagine today. Perhaps nowhere will this change be greater than with our own bodies. With new generations of external and internal monitoring devices continuously gathering unimaginable quantities of health and medical data on billions of people, we will soon learn more about the human body in a year than we once did in a century. China is already working to do this on hundreds of millions of its chronically ill citizens. This knowledge will help transform everything from epidemiology to genetic research to individualized medicine and treatment programs. Most of all, big data is about to ask some cultural questions for which we have no ready answers, much less consensus. For example, who owns our personal data? Today that answer is not clear—and it may take legal precedent, perhaps even the adoption of a Bill of Data Rights, to resolve that question. These are major challenges, but they will be overcome because the fruits of big data are too valuable. None, it is now clear, is more valuable than what is called “metadata”—data that derives from, and provides information about, other data. One of the biggest lessons of technology revolutions is that they begin by solving a need you already have—say, tracking how a particular virus spreads in a population—and end by solving needs you never imagined. And that may be the real destiny of big data. When you can study billions, even trillions, of data points you begin to uncover forces and trends that until now have always been invisible to human observers. What if that impacted wisdom tooth you had at age 10 shortens your life 70 years later? Or if that one fugitive, missed heartbeat last week is a harbinger of cardiac trouble to come next month? It is the discovery of this metadata that may prove to be big data’s real destiny: to teach us to see both ourselves and the natural world around us in ways we never could before.; 1522 次阅读|13 个评论

分享华尔街日报：美方已大致推断出客机飞行路线: 热度 55 holycow 2014-3-14 11:28; 客机失联后的飞行时间不是一开始报道的四小时，是五小时。卫星最后一次接收到客机信号是在海洋上空，正常巡航高度。消息来源包括一名军方人士，一名航空工业界人士，但消息来源拒绝透露推断的飞行路线。另：马来西亚要求印度定点搜索的海域，在安达曼海南部，尼科巴群岛以西。印度出动了两架C-130J, 一架P-8I，若干舰艇。; 1798 次阅读|25 个评论

分享华尔街日报：美方调查人员相信飞机失联后继续飞行了四小时 ...: 热度 40 holycow 2014-3-13 12:55; 刚出街的消息，直接贴英文报道： ASIA NEWS Missing Airplane Flew On for HoursEngine Data Suggest Malaysia Flight Was Airborne Long After Radar Disappearance, U.S. Investigators Say By ANDY PASZTOR Updated March 13, 2014 12:50 a.m. ET U.S. investigators suspect that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 stayed in the air for about four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky. Aviation investigators and national security officials believe the plane flew for a total of five hours based on data automatically downloaded and sent to the ground from the Boeing Co.777's engines as part of a routine maintenance and monitoring program. That raises a host of new questions and possibilities about what happened aboard the widebody jet carrying 239 people, which vanished from civilian air-traffic control radar over the weekend, about one hour into a flight to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur. Six days after the mysterious disappearance prompted a massive international air and water search that so far hasn't produced any results, the investigation appears to be broadening in scope. U.S. counterterrorism officials are pursuing the possibility that a pilot or someone else on board the plane may have diverted it toward an undisclosed location after intentionally turning off the jetliner's transponders to avoid radar detection, according to one person tracking the probe. The investigation remains fluid, and it isn't clear whether investigators have evidence indicating possible terrorism or espionage. So far, U.S. national security officials have said that nothing specifically points toward terrorism, though they haven't ruled it out. But the huge uncertainty about where the plane was headed, and why it apparently continued flying so long without working transponders, has raised theories among investigators that the aircraft may have been commandeered for a reason that appears unclear to U.S. authorities. Some of those theories have been laid out to national security officials and senior personnel from various U.S. agencies, according to one person familiar with the matter. At one briefing, according to this person, officials were told investigators are actively pursuing the notion that the plane was diverted "with the intention of using it later for another purpose." As of Wednesday it remained unclear whether the plane reached an alternate destination or if it ultimately crashed, potentially hundreds of miles from where an international search effort has been focused. In those scenarios, neither mechanical problems, pilot mistakes nor some other type of catastrophic incident caused the 250-ton plane to mysteriously vanish from radar. The latest revelations come as local media reported that Malaysian police visited the home of at least one of the two pilots. Boeing officials and a Malaysia Airlines official declined to comment. The engines' onboard monitoring system is provided by their manufacturer, Rolls-Royce PLC, and it periodically sends bursts of data about engine health, operations and aircraft movements to facilities on the ground. Rolls-Royce couldn't immediately be reached for comment. As part of its maintenance agreements, Malaysia Airlines transmits its engine data live to Rolls-Royce for analysis. The system compiles data from inside the 777's two Trent 800 engines and transmits snapshots of performance, as well as the altitude and speed of the jet. Those snippets are compiled and transmitted in 30-minute increments, said one person familiar with the system. According to Rolls-Royce's website, the data is processed automatically "so that subtle changes in condition from one flight to another can be detected." The engine data is being analyzed to help determine the flight path of the plane after the transponders stopped working. The jet was originally headed for China, and its last verified position was half way across the Gulf of Thailand. A total flight time of five hours after departing Kuala Lumpur means the Boeing 777 could have continued for an additional distance of about 2,200 nautical miles, reaching points as far as the Indian Ocean, the border of Pakistan or even the Arabian Sea, based on the jet's cruising speed. Malaysian Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein in Kuala Lumpur briefs media on the search mission on Wednesday. Reuters Earlier Wednesday, frustrations over the protracted search for the missing plane mounted as both China and Vietnam vented their anger over what they viewed as poor coordination of the effort. Government conflicts and national arguments over crises are hardly unique to the Flight 370 situation, but some air-safety experts said they couldn't recall another recent instance of governments publicly feuding over search procedures during the early phase of an international investigation. Authorities radically expanded the size of the search zone Wednesday, which already was proving a challenge to cover effectively, but the mission hadn't turned up much by the end of the fifth day. WSJ has confirmed that the pilot had the ability to manually turn off the transponder on Flight MH370. A mid-air catastrophe could have destroyed it. Why is the transponder so significant? WSJ's Jason Bellini has #TheShortAnswer. More The Tricky Science of Radar Tracking Also on Wednesday, a Chinese government website posted images from Chinese satellites showing what it said were three large objects floating in an 8-square-mile area off the southern tip of Vietnam. The objects were discovered on Sunday , according to the website, which didn't say whether the objects had been recovered or examined. Ten countries were helping to scour the seas around Malaysia, including China, the U.S. and Vietnam. Taiwanese vessels are expected to be on the scene by Friday, with India and Japan having also agreed to join the search soon. In all, 56 surface ships were taking part in the search, according to statements issued by the contributing governments, with Malaysia providing 27 of them. In addition, 30 fixed-wing aircraft were also searching, with at least 10 shipboard helicopters available, mostly in the waters between Malaysia and Vietnam. China's government was especially aggrieved. More than 150 of the 239 people on board are Chinese, and family members in Beijing have at times loudly expressed their frustration over the absence of leads. More than a dozen Chinese diplomats met with Malaysian authorities in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday as tension grew over the search. "At present there's a lot of different information out there. It's very chaotic and very hard to verify," foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said in a regular press briefing. "We've said as long as there is a shred of hope, you can't give up." The day before, Beijing pointedly pressed Malaysia to accelerate its investigation, which has been hampered by false leads on suspected debris and conflicting reports on radar tracking. Admiral Le Minh Thanh at a media briefing on Phu Quoc Island, Vietnam. Reuters Vietnam on Wednesday suspended its search flights after conflicting reports from Malaysia that authorities had tracked the plane to the Strait of Malacca before it disappeared. Gen. Rodzali Daud, Malaysia's air force chief, denied saying he had told local media that military radar facilities had tracked the plane there, saying they were still examining all possibilities. Vietnam later resumed normal search sweeps. Malaysian authorities divided the search area into several sectors on either side of the country, as well as areas on land. The challenge, said Lt. David Levy, a spokesman for the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet, isn't so much coordination as the sheer size of the area involved. The search grids are up to 20 miles by 120 miles, and ships and aircraft employ an exhaustive methodical pattern "like mowing your lawn" in their search for the plane, he said. China and Vietnam venting their frustration with the slow progress of the mission and what they view as poor coordination of the effort to find Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Allison Morrow reports on the News Hub. Photo: Getty Images. U.S. defense officials sought to play down any suggestion that the Malaysian government was doing a poor job with the search. "It is not unusual for searches to take a long time, especially when you are working with limited data," one official said. Aviation experts say the absence of an electronic signal from the plane before it disappeared from radar screens makes it difficult to pin down possible locations. Some radar data suggested the Boeing 777 might have tried to turn back to Kuala Lumpur before contact was lost, a detail that prompted a search for the plane on both sides of the Malaysian peninsula. A U.S. Navy P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft has been searching the northern Strait of Malacca, west of Malaysia, while destroyers USS Kidd and USS Pinckney have been deploying helicopters in the Gulf of Thailand to the east. So far the U.S., like other nations taking part in the search, has had no success. Many aviation experts are concluding that searchers might not have been looking in the right places. Even if the plane broke up in midair, it would have left telltale traces of debris in the ocean. The cracks now emerging between some of the participants in the search could make it even more difficult. You can help search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, thanks to a website called Tomnod.com. It allows anyone to comb the area where rescue workers are searching using satellite images. The WSJ's Deborah Kan speaks to DigitalGlobe's Luke Barrington. Diplomatic feuds over air disasters have generally erupted over the conclusions of the investigations, long after the initial search is over. The results of the 1999 crash of an Egyptair Boeing 767 en route to Egypt from New York, which killed 217 people, spawned a dispute between Washington and Cairo that strained ties for years. The National Transportation Safety Board concluded the plane's co-pilot purposely put the twin-engine jet into a steep dive and then resisted efforts by the captain to recover control before the airliner slammed into the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Nantucket. Egyptian authorities insisted the evidence indicated mechanical failure. Years earlier, Washington and Paris butted heads over the investigation of an American Eagle commuter turboprop that crashed in 1994 near Roselawn, Ind. The French objected to the NTSB's conclusions that French regulators failed to take actions that could have prevented the accident.; 3308 次阅读|29 个评论

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