TA的每日心情 | 开心
2023-3-1 00:08 |
|---|
签到天数: 2397 天 [LV.Master]无
|
这是最近一个叫Gulagu.net的网站泄露出来的。Gulagu.net由俄罗斯异见人士Vladimir Osechkin创办。Osechkin是个记者，最早因为报道揭露俄罗斯联邦监狱里的酷刑拷打而出名。他创办这个Gulagu.net主要用来揭露各国（不限于俄罗斯）监狱系统的酷刑。他在FSB内部有一些线索和同情者。
最新收到的这八份文件据称乃是FSB的内部通讯/报告，跟乌克兰最新局势有关。真实性待考。也有可能是反俄人士/乌克兰人编篡出来打心理战的。姑且一读。原文俄语，由Google机翻然后由懂俄语的给校正了一下，但仍然有大量语句不通之处。。。
××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××××
Letter 1 (March 9)
Over the past 2 weeks, a lot has changed in the post-Soviet space, in Europe and in the world as a whole. On February 24, 2022, at night, the Russian army, on the orders of Vladimir Putin and in fulfillment of his insidious plan, attacked Ukraine without warning, as a result of military aggression, thousands of people have already died, communications in dozens of cities have been destroyed, hundreds of buildings and thousands of structures have been bombed, and more than millions of Ukrainians were forced to flee to Europe, losing their homes, jobs and, in thousands of cases, their families, their children, husbands and parents. The whole world reacted to this cruelty, treachery and war crimes with lightning speed and unequivocally:
- the world community condemned the war and the illegal acts of Russia;
- introduced unprecedented sanctions against the Russian Federation and its leadership;
- Russia is disconnected from all international systems and the country turns into a pariah;
- the ruble exchange rate collapsed by more than 2 times, and the shares of many large Russian companies fell dozens of times;
- an international investigation into the genocide and war crimes began;
- Russia is put in the position of "little-USSR" version 2.0, despite the fact that most people are against the war and perceive Putin's policy as a catastrophe on a planetary scale;
- realizing the sharp increase in discontent among the population, the Putin regime hysterically began to block media independent of the Kremlin and the special services of the Russian Federation without legal grounds, leaving Russians only access to propaganda in the form of a narrow circle of mouthpieces of power with absolutely tendentious rhetoric and the absence of an objective assessment of the situation;
- The puppet Duma, controlled by the Kremlin, is churning out surreal repressive laws one after another in order to suppress the will of the people and force them to tacitly agree with state policy under the threat of arrest and a prison term of up to 20 years in torture prisons.
Apocalyptic scenario and hopelessness. It would seem ... But the tank only from the outside seems to be something formidable, terrible and powerful. In fact, there is no unanimity and agreement inside the "Putin tank". The power elite, unlike the gullible viewers of state TV propaganda, perfectly understands the following... (more in the video)
"
One of the insiders from the special services of the Russian Federation, I will publish without edits and censorship, because this is hell: “I’ll be honest right away: I have hardly slept all these days, almost all the time at work, my head is a little floating, like in a fog. And from overwork, sometimes I already catch states, as if all this is not real.
To be honest, the Pandora's box is open - a real global horror will begin by the summer - global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year's harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring the catastrophe to a peak point).
I can't tell you what guided those at the top when deciding on the operation, but now they are methodically sicking all the dogs on us (the Service). We are scolded for analytics - this is very in my line of work, so I will explain what is wrong.
Recently, we have been increasingly pressed to customize reports to the requirements of management - I once touched on this topic. All these political consultants, politicians and their retinue, influence teams - all this created chaos. Strong.
Most importantly, no one knew that there would be such a war, they hid it from everyone. And here's an example of how it worked: you are asked (hypothetically) to calculate the possibility of human rights protection in different conditions, including the attack of prisons by meteorites. You ask about meteorites, they tell you - don't worry about it, calculation is just in case, nothing like this will happen. You understand that the report will be just for show, but you need to write in a victorious style so that there are no questions, or they would say, why do you have so many problems, did you really work badly. In general, a report is being written that when a meteorite falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And you concentrate on tasks that are real - we don’t have enough resources anyway. And then suddenly they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which was made up.
That is why we have a total shitshow - I don’t even want to pick another word. There is no protection from sanctions for the same reason: well, it’s quite possible that Nabiullina will be hanged for negligence (rather, the top managers from her team), but what are they to blame for? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one prepared for such sanctions. This is the reverse side of secrecy: since no one was told, then who could plan for what they weren't told about?
Kadyrov is going crazy. And there was almost a conflict with us: perhaps it was the Ukrainians that threw in misinformation that it was us who leaked the position of Kadyrov's special forces on the first day of the operation. They were demolished during the march in a terrible way, they had not yet begun to fight, but they were simply torn to pieces. And off we go: it was the FSB that leaked the route to the Ukrainians. I do not have such information, I will leave 1-2% for this possibility (it cannot be completely ruled out either).
Blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, they seized all the key buildings in Kyiv, they gave them the order to surrender - yes, the resistance would subside to the minimum values. In theory. But what's next? Even with this ideal variant, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we demolish Zelensky, well, with whom should we sign agreements? If through Zelensky, then after we demolish it, these papers are worth nothing. Opposition Platform for Life refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people would not understand this. They wanted to return Tsarev, but even our pro-Russians turned against him. Return Yanukovych? How? If we say that we don't do occupation, then any puppet government there will be killed in 10 minutes, after we leave. Should we occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the logistics. And there is a rule that by replacing the poor quality of management with quantity, you only make matters worse. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist.
What now? We cannot announce draft for two reasons:
1) Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.
2) Our logistics are already overstretched today. We will need to move many times more stuff, and what will we get? Ukraine is a hefty country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is going through the roof. Our roads simply won't be able to handle such supply caravans - everything will come to a standstill. And we won't manage to pull it out - because it's chaos.
And these two reasons fall out at the same time, although even one is enough to break everything off.
Losses: I don't know how many there are. Nobody knows. For the first two days there was still control, now no one knows what is going on there. You can lose large units in communication. They can be found, or they can dissolve due to being attacked. And there, even the commanders may not know how many of them are running around somewhere nearby, how many died, how many are in captivity. The number of deaths is definitely in the thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, or maybe only 2. Even at the headquarters they don’t know for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And now we don’t count the LDNR corps - they have their own accounting.
Now, even if Zelensky is killed, taken prisoner, nothing will change. It is Chechnya in the level of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that there would be no such option, unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we were initially preparing protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. Excluding the possibility of direct entry. Of "invasion", to put it simply.
Further civilian losses will go exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. They already tried to enter the cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a partial success. Remember the assault on Mosul - after all, this is the rule, so it was in all countries, nothing new.
Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe are a matter of time.
We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains. By and large, next week there will be a turning point in one of the sides, simply because the situation cannot be in such an strain. There are no analytics - it is impossible to calculate the chaos, here no one can say anything for sure. Act intuitively, and even on emotions - but this is not poker. Bets will rise, in the hope that suddenly some option will appear. The trouble is that we, too, can now miscalculate and lose everything in one move.
By and large, the country has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything, we have arrived. They 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that our army was in trouble. Then they started the war to the bitter end, then they began to take the Bolsheviks for "re-education" into the army - after all, they were outcasts, uninteresting to anyone in the masses. And then, the Bolsheviks, who were not really known to anyone, picked up anti-war slogans and it started like this ...
From the pros: we did everything so that even a hint of the mass sending of "penalty boxes" to the front line did not materialize. Send convicts and "socially unreliable" political prisoners there (so that they don't mess with the water inside the country) - the morale of the army will simply go into the negative. And the enemy is motivated, terribly motivated. He knows how to fight, there are enough middle-level commanders there. They have weapons. They have support. We will simply set a precedent for human loss in the world. And that's it.
What we are most afraid of: at the top, they act according to the rule of overlapping the old problem with a new problem. Largely for this reason, the Donbass of 2014 began - it was necessary to divert the attention of Westerners from the topic of the Russian spring in Crimea, so the Donbass crisis, it seems, should have drawn all the attention to itself and become the subject of bargaining. But there were even bigger problems. Then they decided to sell Erdogan on the idea of 4 pipes of the South Stream and entered Syria - this is after Soleimani gave deliberately false inputs in order to solve his problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the issue with Crimea, there are also problems with the Donbass, the South Stream has shrunk to 2 pipes, and Syria is stuck with another headache (if we go out, they will demolish Assad, which will make us look like idiots, but it’s also difficult and useless to stick around).
I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian Blitzkrieg". If we were asked for some introductory input, we would at least indicate that the original plan is controversial, that we need to double-check a lot. A lot of things. Now we got into the shit somewhere up to the neck. And it is not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" are not analytical categories, because they do not have clearly defined parameters by which one can determine the level of accomplishment or non-completion of the task.
Now it remains to be seen that some fucking adviser will convince the top to start a conflict with Europe demanding to reduce some sanctions. Reduce, or war. What if they refuse? Now I do not rule out that then we will be drawn into a real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. And then our Z will be compared to a swastika.
Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not give anything - this is a deterrence weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others. At the same time, the ground is being prepared to blame everything on Ukraine - Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the earth to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there. Damn, they are now hammering on what we have long studied and disproved: you can’t make evidence out of thin air, and the presence of specialists and uranium (Ukraine has a lot of depleted isotope 238) is nothing. There the production cycle is such that you can’t do it secretly. You can’t even make a “dirty” bomb secretly, but the fact that their old nuclear power plants can produce weapons-grade plutonium (REB-1000 type stations provide it in minimal quantities as a “by-product”
Do you know what will happen in a week? Well, even after two. Now it will screw us so much that we will start to miss the hungry 90s. While the stock market was closed, Nabiullina seemed to be taking good steps - but this is all like plugging a hole in a dam with a finger. It will still break through, and even stronger. Nothing will be decided in 3, 5, or 10 days.
Kadyrov beats his hoof for a reason - they have their own adventures there. He created for himself the image of the most influential and invincible. And if it falls once, it will be taken down by its own people. He will no longer be the owner of the winning team.
We go further. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and then we can strengthen our positions in Syria." And now, at any moment, they may run out of the resources - and things will get tough ... Turkey could block the straits - then to transport suppliesby planes, it's like heating an oven with paper bills.
Notice that all this is happening at the same time, we don’t even have time to bring everything into one heap. We have a situation, like in Germany in the 43-44th. And we start right at 43. Sometimes I am already lost from this overwork, sometimes it seems that everything was a dream and it was a dream, that everything is as before.
In prisons, by the way, it will be worse. Now the nuts will begin to tighten. Everywhere. To be honest, purely technically, this remains the only chance to keep the situation - we are already in the mode of total mobilization. But you can’t stay in such a regime for a long time, and we have ambiguity with the timing and it will only get worse for now. From mobilization, management always goes astray. Yes, and imagine: you can run a hundred meters in a snatch, but it’s bad to go for marathon distance and try to sprint the whole way. Here we sprinted with the Ukrainian question, as if we were running a hundred meters, and fit into a cross-country marathon.
And that's what I'm talking about very, very briefly.
From the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.
Firstly, there is more than one person making a decision, at least someone will jump off. And there are a lot of people there - there is no "one-man red button".
Secondly, there are some doubts that everything is functioning successfully there. Experience shows that the greater the transparency and control, the easier it is to identify shortcomings. And where it is not clear who controls and how, but always bravura reports - everything is always wrong there. I'm not sure if the red button system works as advertised. In addition, the plutonium charge must be changed every 10 years.
Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the readiness to sacrifice oneself of a person who does not let the members of the Federation Council, but his closest representatives and ministers, come close to him. For fear of the coronavirus or an attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people near you, then how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones, inclusive?
If anything - ask, but I can not answer for several days. We are in rush mode, and there are more and more tasks.
In general, our reports are peppy, but everything is going to the shitter.
Never before has this Gulagu.net source swearing, writing short and to the point.
Letter 2 (March 5)
Source
Downloaded from Vladimir Osechkin gulagu-net website in March 2022
https://gulagu-net.ru/news/2022-03-10-1234.html
English
Vladimir Osechkin Vladimir OsechkinPublished: 10 March, 2022
On March 4, my colleagues and I decided to publish for the first time a letter from our source, who, judging by the letters, is serving in one of the analytical units of the special services. We sincerely hoped that this publicity would draw attention to the war in Ukraine and the ongoing events and would allow the war to be stopped sooner. But we could not imagine that this letter and this publication would attract such attention around the world.
We decided to continue publishing data from our source and we believe that this will give the world new data that no one has ever published in the official Russian press.
Subject: letter 2 dated 05/03/2022 (first published was dated 04/03/22)
to whom: me
Good day, Vladimir!
I'll start a little from afar. There are people with a specific orientation in the field of analytics, who are kept in the special services not only for their benefit (and even not so much for it), but in order to be "under control". For example, they (I am one of them) will no longer be able to jump out into ordinary life - the system does not provide for such a turn. "There" we can be dangerous. This approach of my department is stable.
And being here, I already understand exactly why we will not have our own Mercedes and BMWs in Russia, but will have a maximum of Ladas (the production of single models does not count - I'm talking about serial assembly). To have Mercedes, you must always act according to a protocol that is optimized and controlled. Without political decisions and momentary demands of the authorities. Which, in general, for a start should not interfere. This is not "catching up and overtaking", but methodical painstaking work, with a strategy instead of a wishlist. But in Russia this does not happen.
We have enough resources in the FSB to switch to system analysis, but nobody needs it. We can meticulously calculate variations, make models, point out problems. But at any moment, some bastard (usually not even from our structures - I'm talking about senior officials, politicians and their hangers-on) can suddenly declare that "here the mood is too defeatist, but in this place you cast a shadow on the leadership of such - something of a state structure with which there is no need to quarrel now. There is professionalism and there is loyalty. We need loyalty - it is very much appreciated to wave to the authorities or "requirements from the very top" in time.
While we are working on the detection of the same pedophiles, on human trafficking (I took part in this, I know what I'm talking about) - no one climbs. And there are results. And since they are, they also entrust more political tasks. Analysts should not have emotions - we believe in morale, we do not believe - there are forecast models, there are statistics, there is sociology. "I believe, I do not believe" we should not have. But there is. And those who are ready to nod and say that "we will find a solution and solve the issue" climb the ladder. And there are more and more problems from this approach.
Now to your question... I confirm right away that the situation is out of control. Any model has a planning horizon in time, there are parameters of its performance - the boundaries within which it works. Now there is none of this: most of the parameters were introduced from the bulldozer, just a political decision.
Last Sunday, all forces were thrown to "ensure the stability of all processes for 3-5 days." A reasonable question: what if nothing gets better in 3-5 days? But such a question was not even allowed to be worked out - look for ways, think, work. We will survive for 3-5 days, then the situation will change for the better, we will plan for the long term. These 3-5 days have passed. It got worse. Only the approach does not change.
Now we don't have for the normal model:
- reliable information about what is happening in the Russian regions;
- reliable data on the real state of army units;
- reliable data on the military prospects of the operation (there is a whole set of data from different departments and services - one contradicts the other, which means that there is nothing);
- a well-developed model of economic management in the real conditions of the created restrictions;
- reliable information on loyalty in the financial and political elites of the country;
- reliable data on forthcoming extramers in the country.
What we have:
- a constant stream of new data on "emerging" economic problems that "should not be": partial failures in the supply chains of raw materials can stop complex processes, including the production of strategic products, the functioning of single-industry towns and industrial agglomerations;
- the expected explosive growth of banditry and crime, due to the superposition of several factors, such as: economic problems, a decrease in the mental stability of the population from stress + military psychosis + accumulated nervous state from isolation measures;
- situational planning of a political nature without calculating the long-term (and even short- and medium-term) prospects for their introduction;
- separatization of the work of services and departments with the loss of a unified management system;
- the growth of foreign policy threats, including military ones (there is no 100% guarantee that Japan will not attack the Kuriles or Georgia will not attack Ossetia-Abkhazia, Syria and Libya should prepare for attacks by our contingents);
- the impossibility (complete) of the functioning of the former economic model (there is no more stabilization fund, the exchange rate goes into turbulence, the former system of employment is impossible in principle).
With such inputs, there are no and cannot be clear forecasts - we have flown from anti-crisis management into crisis management. And to be honest, we just went into disaster mode. A catastrophe as a state is characterized by the fact that "it will not happen as it was, but we will not know how it will be until it happens."
It is a paradox, but the survival of the country in such conditions for some time is possible only due to the autonomy of parts of the administration. To put it bluntly, the police chief of a small town can better see what he needs to do in the entrusted territory, and not listen to "universal commands from the center." Here and now, this (and only this) can increase the survival of structures and systems, but if we take an event horizon of a year or more, then this is the death of the state as a whole.
As I predicted, Nabiullina will now be prosecuted, people from her entourage will go to trial. This will smash the banking sector into the trash - what will happen to the course and policy of the Central Bank - I am not an economist by profile, I can’t even think about it without systematic study. The worst option - they will put the one who offers to turn on the printing press to "hold the situation."
For the same reason (I am not an economist) I do not undertake to assess the prospects of the commodity market, but it has gone off the rails: today they are buying everything in a row, which means that demand is giving a crazy swing. Hence - the impossibility of normal logistics, because warehouses and transportation are calculated from the model of optimal average values, when there is the most uniform load on the entire potential. And if you need to produce, breed, store, sell goods for 2 months in 3 days and then stand for 2 months - this is an asshole. At the same time, not the best is happening with loans - rates are rising, and getting money is getting harder.
Burnout. Personally, I've already burned out - indifference appears, the desire to work my ass off is gone. It is impossible to work with such inputs. If you want to give "victory plans" and build a smart face "according to the laws of wartime" - well, you won. That's what I do. But burnout will now be total, rampant.
Now the internal mobilization of the power resource will begin, and when it is done without a time frame, it is a disaster. All departments are in enhanced mode, everyone is looking for enemies and saboteurs, everyone is saving the country from the inside. Those who do not burn out - that's what they should be afraid of. It will be corporate lawlessness and fascism. Many of our people also believe that "now it is necessary to be tough with enemies," and everyone around can become enemies. This is psychosis against the background of professional deformation of the psyche. This is a moral shift. Irreversible.
The worst. If at the top they decide to release the command of "military expediency" - hell will begin here and immediately. Military expediency is lawlessness. The right of strength. A person is mentally arranged in such a way that he seeks justification for everything in his actions. The law is just a tool that sets boundaries. Because "for the sake of your country" you can shoot the legs of a suspicious person, and you can shoot him for refusing to bow to a military man. Military expediency is when internal justification is given complete freedom. In fact, this is the same revolution, when force takes power.
I have no global forecasts, except for the old one: by May-June we will not have what to fight with, who to fight with and how to support it all. But the turning point will be in the coming days. I suspect in a bad way for us. And even if we now decide to include strategic aviation as well, it will only make things worse for us. The United States frankly allows us to get involved in this conflict, they cannot fail to understand that we are now in a trap.
Markers we are still monitoring:
- Preparation by Westerners of programs that conditionally fall under the category of "oil in exchange for food." For us. This will mean that the trap closes completely;
- Abrupt shifts in the government bloc, where we will not be notified in advance to provide additional control. This will speak of panic management - a system of abrupt and cardinal personnel decisions based solely on emotions;
- Total nationalization (personally, unlike many colleagues, I put this marker in the first place - after such actions we will economically turn into Venezuela even without war and sanctions, this will be de facto looting);
- Military ultimatum from other countries. But we can also move ultimatums now;
- The flight of the highest military-political representatives of the country with their transition to the side of other states. We are nominally following this, but we do not have a "pure" special service, after all. To explain for a long time, and not very pleasant.
In the next 3-5 years, improvement of the economic situation in Russia is impossible with all available options. Although, of course, there may be exceptions: highly developed aliens who will support us; we will learn to conjure; something else from this opera.
And it remains to be seen how Asia and the Arab world will react when the world covers hunger in these regions since the summer - grains are not exported this year.
It is very difficult to try to summarize such topics, but I hope that at least partially answered the question.
Now you are simply obliged to slow down the torture processes in prisons - no one can pull this section apart from you. Uncontrolled violence will shoot out in such a way that the bloody rise of the Bolsheviks to power will seem like an easy warm-up to us. I do not think that we will avoid the terrible, but it is worth at least softening the hell that begins.
Letter 3 (March 5)
Source
Downloaded from Vladimir Osechkin gulagu-net website in March 2022
https://gulagu-net.ru/news/2022-03-10-1235.html
English
Vladimir OsechkinPublished: 10 March, 2022
Letter No. 3 dated March 05, 2022
Mar 5 2022 23:55 (5 days ago)
to whom: me
“According to Putin and the FSB, we have such a picture.
On the one hand, he is supported and respected, but if you dig a little into the analysis, then this is a collective feeling for the image, thanks to which the FSB today has received the strength that it really has. And for the Service there is one of the unspoken rules (for the majority it even seems something natural and self-evident) - to criticize Putin's image is to betray one's interests.
In fact, Putin was not a scout - this is generally an open secret. But we have doubts about the abilities of the authorities by default equate to betrayal.
Who makes the decisions? I also see from our work that there is no single decision-making center - intrigues and "people who have been trusted from above" lobby their teams, decisions, etc. Under this, facts are sometimes adjusted and even events are created. I personally do not communicate with Putin, but if we consider him as an object of development with a situational portrait, then we actually have:
1) Narcissistic disorders as a possible result of children's complexes and methods for overcoming them;
2) Non-perception of family life (there is no information about his parents, information about children is hidden, information about his personal life is blocked), which requires compensatory mechanisms of the psyche in the search for loved ones. Such a psychotype is prone to "cross dominance" in relationships;
3) he tries to surround himself with people of the type whom he respected / feared in his childhood psychotype and over whom he has power now;
4) The strongest psychological resistance to personal responsibility for difficult decisions. This is already a derivative of the first point, but in turn, this also leads to a mechanism for denying one's own guilt / responsibility, even to oneself. Hence (taking into account paragraph 3) we can say with almost absolute certainty that Putin is psychologically incapable of refusing an offer with justification to his closest circle. But this also leads to the conclusion that he does not guarantee anything to anyone by saying "yes", because to guarantee means to take responsibility. With a high probability I state that in the case of proposals from his inner circle, he will agree with each proposal, delegating execution / control (responsibility) to the proposer. Contradictions with "consent"
Move on. The current situation is such that no one anywhere has reliable information on complex issues. The reports that go through me are then corrected by the leadership in a politically correct way (more positive, less negative notes). Based on such rosy reports, an even more rosy (and false) picture is created. At the same time, everything is still very good with us - I know this for sure.
At the top of the power, there are several realities in parallel - they are all real in their own way. Power, like money, is an illusion that exists solely due to the degree of faith in them. This is an axiom of control theory. Another thing is that there is no Russia as a whole picture either.
It is quite another thing that Putin could find himself in a closed "universe" of someone from his entourage - well, it's not just that he is afraid to let even ministers near him. And this is already a completely closed part, for which I have no facts.
But what I know for sure: the same Volodin flew to Cuba before the start of the war, and on the day the war began, he wrote that it was very important to fly to Nicaragua. Not a word about the war. The lion's share of people close to the main Towers sincerely believed that there would be no war. And we understood that such a war would be a trap for us. What, in general, we have a place to observe. Did Shoigu know that this would happen with the course of the war? No. He is not a military man. He could seriously believe in the army, the picture of which he showed Putin. I personally know the facts of such a brutal fuck in the army, at the highest level, that it would even be fat for a joke. When, for example, urgent victorious reports are required from the generals, they, with obscenities and shouts, pass the order lower and lower, until at one of the levels some sergeant asks a dismissal for "solving the issue", after which he takes a video of the work of American aviation work in Afghanistan, erases the sound and gives it to his petty boss. And he sends "for reporting" a little higher, and there - even higher, until it falls on the tables of the command, which in all seriousness believes in it and passes it on to Shoigu, he passes it on to Putin.
It is seriously discussed that Putin has been paying a lot of attention to "mystical meanings" lately. From numerology to shamans somewhere in the north. I can’t really say anything about this - it doesn’t fit into the analytical analysis.
But the fact that the king is not a king, it is. He wants to be a king, and here is the trap of illusion and the field for manipulating the object. Those. From all points of view, there are all prerequisites for this.
About the Internet. To be honest, we can cover the Internet. Technically. Your mouth can also be sewn up to stop drinking, for example. Technically, yes, it's possible. Attempts to jam will be. The worst thing is that different departments will begin to compete for greater efficiency. I say jokingly that my superiors sometimes say in all seriousness: "North Korea lives in such a regime - and nothing." In general, military psychosis is scary, we can do a lot of things from it. How far we will play is unknown. Look a little wider: we react momentarily and in fact. Here they introduced a criminal offense for "fakes against the army." Kadyrov reasonably notes that his structures belong to the National Guard, i.e. there is no punishment for fakes against them. One more law can be introduced. And there - justice, and behind it - special services. And then there are the taxmen. This is not a system work and some kind of parody of case law in the United States. Nothing can be ruled out here.
Why I believe in your actions. No, I do not believe that they will reduce torture. But the percentage of those who perfectly understand the prospects of what is happening is quite high. Among ours too. And the army has them. Support points are needed so as not to feel like a doomed renegade. If now this layer is also lost, that's it, the lid of the country's coffin will be nailed down with hammers.
Soon everything will change. I'm even afraid to think how and when exactly - we just entered the state of impossibility "as before", and we do not fit into the state "as we would like". We have now received a classic breaking point within the country - as in Messner's "Mutinary War" (it is also in a reworked form - the "Gerasimov Doctrine"). We need any points of support in order to maintain adequacy, even in grains. And those who have flown off the coils - yes, they are already on all sides.
Letter 4 (March 10)
Source
Downloaded from Vladimir Osechkin gulagu-net website in March 2022
https://gulagu-net.ru/news/2022-03-10-1237.html
English
Vladimir OsechkinPublished: 10 March, 2022
We publish data from 2 sources. One of them reports that (if the letter was shortened, he convincingly asked not to publish his message) one of the factors for the start of the war was... Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the presence of more than 50 "unfinished projects" and a huge gap between the allocated budget funds within the framework of the State Defense Order and reality. In the second half of 2021, the administration of the President of the Russian Federation and the FSB actively discussed the possibility of the resignation of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation S.K. Shoigu, conducting large-scale searches and detentions of his inner circle (candidate for arrest No. Ivanov himself was summoned for interrogation on the allegations of billions of embezzlements and frauds), and Shoigu knew this for certain and took steps to "resolve the issue." It was not only about his political career (Shoigu considers himself the No. 1 candidate to replace Putin), but also about the possible arrest and confiscation of all the clan's property. In fact, the foreign policy situation and a number of stuffing (you can call them deep fakes), fabricated by Shoigu's subordinates and transferred to the aging Putin (lost touch with reality and plunged into the world of folders / exaggerated reports of his generals), formed the conditions for making a decision on the beginning of the "victorious" (actually not really) war. The logic of the Shoigu clan is "With the war, we can write off everything" and "They don't change horses at the crossing." (the hope that Putin will not decide on repressions and personnel decisions on Shoigu and his several deputies.
Below is a letter from another source, the author of the letter dated March 4, 2022.
"Wed, Mar 9, __:__ (20 hours ago)
to whom: me
Vladimir, good afternoon!
Probably the first time I can write in the daytime on a weekday - everything has turned upside down.
Under other circumstances, this information would look like nonsense, but now, I'm afraid, this will not be the limit.
Firstly, we are seriously considering the version that the ongoing battle on Ukrainian territory is a US war against China, in which the Americans simply set us up and used us. Now I will try to explain as concisely and simply as possible.
A global clash between the US and China was inevitable. After the start of the war with Ukraine (although I can not use the term "operation" here), the cost of resources in the world went up, especially energy ones. The main victim of such actions is China, which from us (I can confirm) were given guarantees that everything would end quickly. Therefore, China has previously behaved tolerantly. But that was before.
The United States has such a specificity that they have both the industry and oil production, in fact, the same corporations, so there is a certain internal balance: with expensive oil, they earn from production, with cheap oil - from the development of industry. It's a bit rough, but gives the right insight into their approach. And fracking sites, unlike classic oit derricks, are easy to stop and restart.
Now the US will come to an agreement with Venezuela and Iran, they themselves can buy Venezuelan light oil at a crazy discount. The discovery of Iranian oil, of course, will be received with hostility by Saudi Arabia and the UAE (here is the Yemen conflict, and a number of other factors - for simplicity, I will skip them for now), but everything indicates that the United States was preparing for such negotiations in advance.
The US essentially created a trap for us, almost similar to the Kuwaiti trap for Iraq, when Saddam Hussein was convinced that nothing would happen to him for a "small conflict". He entered Kuwait - and Desert Storm began. And with it began the end of Iraq.
We similarly got all the signs that the United States would not intervene (which was true in a military sense). China may well put forward a tough ultimatum to us to end the war in order to stabilize oil prices. If this happens, I do not want to predict anything - it is beyond the event horizon.
Russia has such a negative image for a number of countries because of the war that the US will easily push sanctions against China, at least for Europeans, if it risks circumventing sanctions against Russia. China depends on exports so heavily that, coupled with its dependence on commodity prices (with their strong rise, there is no chance for the domestic market), this will be almost a fatal blow.
Not only that: Xi Jinping at least considered seizing Taiwan tentatively in the fall - he needs his little victorious one in order to be re-elected for a third term - there is a colossal struggle within the elites. Now, after the Ukrainian events, this window of opportunity was closed to him, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his competitors on favorable terms.
In this case, it was our actions that launched the trap mechanism for China.
We will not be able to admit this aloud, even the development of the version in the current conditions is "not entirely appropriate." Therefore, there is a great desire for the secret to become clear: yes, this is just a working version, but it is in our structure.
The second is the evolution of the situation.
Now about our other plans that go beyond insanity. Sanctions actions against Russia have reached a level that has never been seen before in history. The only thing that Putin is right about is that these sanctions are essentially equivalent to war. With such sanctions, today's Russia does not stand a chance.
Now the matter may not be limited to threats to Europe - the probability of the outbreak of hostilities, albeit of a local nature for the time being, can be considered historically high. Ukraine is a monstrously large front, but there are smaller fronts. For example, if we were talking about Moldova, everything there would really be limited to a military operation in a few hours. With the Baltics - in a few days, but they would have been hit by rocket attacks.
It is no longer possible to exclude completely real threats (not a bluff) of launching missile strikes on Europe in the event of an aggravation of sanctions. Supporters of this approach (they are among those who influence decisions) believe that otherwise we will simply be crushed, waiting for an internal explosion and collapse from within. In addition, in addition to missiles, we have the ability to conduct a powerful cyber war - the Internet can still be curtailed, so there is such a possibility - with the Internet turned off, it will be difficult for us to answer symmetrically. And an external war in any case should reduce internal tension and throw off aggression outside. Although, "should" - does not mean that it will be so.
There is another fairly realistic (but I won’t say good) plans to start a massive information campaign that we are ready for war and sanctions for years: this should psychologically put pressure on Ukrainians (it won’t end quickly - better give up) and Western business. But we mght might end up putting pressure on our business instead...
I suppose that different agencies can now start separately to start pushing their options. There will be more chaos, that's all.
I won’t talk about the economy - it’s like discussing the nuances of the spring sowing during a nuclear bombardment. Terror will intensify - there are no other internal tools to keep the situation inside the country. But terror is a complicated and costly thing, this measure should become temporary. It's like holding your breath because of the poisoned air: if you get out of such a zone further, then the action is justified. And if you hold your breath "for an hour" - protect yourself from poison, but ...
We have no systemic solutions with a positive outcome. There is not even a Ukrainian political force to which power could be delegated, at least for appearances. Seeing Yanukovych paraded in front of media, then this only shows how bad the options are in this regard. Not a single strategic city has been captured. Kherson and Kharkov were considered the most pro-Russian, in Kherson, even with the control of our military, pro-Ukrainian rallies do not subside. In Kharkov, everything is much worse.
I don't go into details, I've just summarized the gist.
Another important piece of information that needs to be added.
The "Plan of Victory" is now drawn in our Service as follows:
Zelensky will be pressured to sign an outwardly soft peace treaty, where he will recognize Crimea as Russia, and the Lugansk and Donetsk regions will go to the LDNR. It is on the LDNR that our negotiators will focus: what nuances, etc. But this is a distraction.
The key point should be the point about demilitarization, which will actually ban the functioning of the Ukrainian special services, primarily counterintelligence.
Here, everyone sees ours as much more promising: in a matter of years, we, perhaps with some (minimal) help from the GRU, will have to carry out a total cleansing of the socio-political field. And after that, it will be possible to install any government we want in Kyiv.
With a high probability, this plan will become dominant for the Kremlin when adjusting the strategy, although nobody cancels the scenarios of madness with escalation on other fronts. In theory, he has prospects, how it will be in practice - is unknown. There can be no military victory here, only victory like this.
There are a lot of nuances here, but the main thing is that after the agreement, we will be able to abandon such agreements at any moment when they have the strength to turn the tide. But then for the "second phase" it will no longer be the troops that will be involved, but purely "черные воронки" with the arrests of those accused of violating the Ukrainian side of the agreements.
This scenario is not as crazy as the others, but everything is again based on some estimates that there is an opportunity to put pressure on Kyiv in the negotiations. Now foreign contacts are being worked out at the highest level - there is a search for those countries whose leadership could tacitly support our position and put pressure on Zelensky. Perhaps this is another bluff, perhaps this is an analogue of the Wenck army in reality. In general, we now have, as I said, a fairly high level of chaos.
In economic terms, we are flying and everything is very predictable: the abyss winks fervently at us.
We are limited in our ability to verify all data, but we consider it important to disclose this information in order to prevent threats to global security. No war!
Letter 5 (March 13 I)
Source
https://t.me/NetGulagu/2342
English
Source: “Vladimir, good morning! Our temperature rose sharply, it became uncomfortably hot. I won't be able to connect for a while. I hope that in a few days we will be able to communicate normally, there is a lot that should be conveyed to you ... (in the next letter).
Issues are now to be resolved by FSO and the DVKR (it is the latter which is now hunting for "moles" and traitors both here and in the Central Command, to take care of the leaks relating to the movement of armored columns), and the task of any department is now to shift the blame from themselves onto others (despite the fact that the army and the ФСВНГ are equipped with cheap Chinese walkie-talkies and all radio amateurs listen to their communications; despite the fact that they have more than 700 mobile phones and employees of the Росгвардия from the Chechen Republic are 24/7 in touch with Grozny and filmed commercials of their strength until they were by the Russian Defense Ministry, and sent them to Chechen propagandists to raise morale). Or make the guilt of others more visible. Now almost all of us are busy with this. We fell under fire a little earlier, because of the most hellish situation with analytics about the internal political situation in Ukraine: there were reports by us (fake) that about 2 thousand trained civilian fighters (at least) in each major city were ready to overthrow Zelensky. And at least 5 thousand civilians, ready to come out with flags against Zelensky and even for Russia on a call. Do you want another funny story? Well, originally, we were expected to be arbitrators over competing Ukrainian politicians who would fight over each other for the right to receive the status of "friends of Russia." There were even criteria for how we would choose the best of the best. There were, of course, fears that somewhere in Western Ukraine, in small towns or in the same Lvov, we would not find a large number of people who wanted to join us. What do we actually have? Berdyansk, Kherson, Mariupol, Kharkiv are the most pro-Russian settlements. And what's there now? The plan can fail, the plan can be wrong. You can give 90% of the result, you can give 50%, or you can give 10%. And it will be a failure. And here we have - 0.0%.
And there is also the question: "How did it happen?" It is a loaded question. Because 0.0% is a result of many years of work of high level officials. So it turns out that either they are enemy agents, or incompetent. But the question doesn't end there. If they are so bad, then who hired them and who checked their work? It turns out that it's the people of the same low quality, but higher in rank. Where does this pyramid of responsibility end? On the boss. And here the lousy game begins: our dear Alexander Vasilievich cannot help but realize how deep he got. And our ill-wishers from the GRU and the SVR (and not just from there) are ready to pounce. The situation is so bad that there are no boundaries of possible options, it will be something unusual”
To be continued. The entire text of the letter is not published for obvious reasons.
We will do our best to expose the massive corruption and fraud that led to the start of the war. No war!
Letter 6 (March 13 II)
Source
Vladimir Osechkin telegram channel
https://t.me/NetGulagu/2345, https://t.me/NetGulagu/2346, https://t.me/NetGulagu/2347
It seems that World War III has begun, our directors are popping champagne - the war between Iran and the United States disrupts the nuclear deal, blocks the ability to replace Russian oil with Iranian oil, and with the (inevitable) shutdown of Hormuz pipeline, oil price will be sky high. I have no idea why Iran decided to shoot themselves in the foot. I’m even ready to believe that there was a pre-agreement, but I haven't seen any evidence of this.
Today I just wanted to convey information about the upcoming "endgame" for Russia through the eyes of our leaders and the Kremlin courtiers.
This is not a "copy" of the order, but a retelling, so you can do whatever you want with it, even publish it without changes. This is rather a short plan, a detailed study will be much more voluminous, more detailed and more substantive - the work is in full swing. Then I will try to explain everything, but I'll be off the grid while we figure out what to do about Iranian-American conflict. The "Gordian knot" operation may be changed in response to this situation.
Operation Gordian Knot
Stage 1. Most likely, Konashenkov will officially declare at the briefing that Europe and the “collective West” have declared war on Russia, intervening in the Ukrainian conflict with their weapons and mercenaries, while simultaneously attacking Russia in the economic plane. There will be an extended briefing about how the war is not only military operations on the battlefield, it is a body of aggressive actions aimed at causing damage to the enemy. And the actions of the West have de facto unleashed a world war. This war has not yet moved into the military stage with missiles and tanks only because Putin, as the supreme commander in chief, did not give such an order. Nevertheless, Konashenkov states that the third world war has begun.
Stage 2. Studying the response - 1-2 days.
Stage 3. Putin's speech, where in the course of a long lecture he will tell that the modern world is not the same as it used to be, that war is both cyber attacks, and the preparation of biological attacks, and a direct attack, and the training of terrorists and saboteurs, and deadly for economics of sanctions. He (allegedly) does not want war, but the West (!!! |
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？注册
x
评分
-
查看全部评分
|
雷达卡
楼主
收藏
分享
淘帖
支持
反对
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
发表于 2022-3-19 07:03:40
