王不留 发表于 2017-5-22 23:41
下一步，资本家应该增加投入维稳机器人的生产。。。不然，这些下岗群众不淡定了，怎么和平过日子呢？只有等 ...
应该是吃饭否都没钱了，挣谁的钱去？挣那30%的富裕阶层吗？
这不正是苦学本领，组织暴动的大好时代么？能吃饱饭谁暴动啊
王不留 发表于 2017-5-22 23:41
下一步，资本家应该增加投入维稳机器人的生产。。。不然，这些下岗群众不淡定了，怎么和平过日子呢？只有等 ...
从科幻电影猜测，很可能是发展低成本的工业食品，免费养活“低端人群”。
食品工业化，比如培养快速生长的藻类、菌类等，加工成低成本的营业食品，不计口味，只要满足人体基本营业需要即可，免费配给所谓的“营业棒”，保证饿不死。
煮酒正熟 发表于 2017-9-29 10:33
你描述的趋势 --- 就是在人工智能不受控制地随意发展的情况下社会和文化和个人生存状态的变化 --- 我比较 ...
刚看到的，是对英国电视台最近的一部纪录片The Sex Robots Are Coming的评论。我在网上找了一下，包括盗版网站，没找到视频，就只能看文字了。现在好像研究性机器人的公司很多，竞争也挺激烈。挺有可能10年之内就会出现不仅外表很逼真，有表情，有喜怒哀乐，而且能跟人随便交谈，有personality的性机器人了。而且一旦能大规模生产，成本也会降下去，可能1000美元就能买一个。那时候婚姻、家庭、乃至男女关系会怎么变成什么样子就不知道了。
https://spectator.imgix.net/content/uploads/2017/12/television.jpg?auto=compress,enhance,format&crop=faces,entropy,edges&fit=crop&w=820&h=550
This week on Channel 4, we watched a cheery 58-year-old American engineer called James going on a first date. He was meeting Harmony, an extravagantly shapely blonde who was obliging enough to be wearing a low-cut crop top and tiny shorts, and who greeted him with a charming smile. After a spot of small talk and a dumb-blonde joke, she then alternated between assuring him how great he was and inviting him to masturbate over her. ‘You’re awesome,’ a visibly smitten James declared — apparently not at all bothered that Harmony was a robot.
This scene — clearly regarded as a heartwarming one by Harmony’s maker Matt McMullen — provided the big finish to Thursday’s The Sex Robots Are Coming, which did its best to take a measured, non-sniggering, non-aghast look at the latest developments in the lucrative sex-doll market.
Until recently, the problem with such dolls has been that, while they may look increasingly realistic (albeit from the more pornographic end of the reality spectrum), their social skills are distinctly limited. But now Matt’s company is one of several competing to produce dolls that can recognise their owners and have proper conversations. If all goes well, customers will even be able to select their new doll’s personality, with options including shy, talkative and — for added realism, some unreconstructed males might think — moody.
Not that James doesn’t have a soft spot for the old type too. When we first met him, he proudly introduced us to ‘the lovely April’ — his favourite of the three non-robot dolls with whom he shares his life. (‘It’s not to demean women,’ he explained as he flipped the naked April over on his bed and slapped her bottom. ‘It’s more an appreciation of their physical beauty.’) More surprisingly, perhaps, he also introduced us to Tine, his wife of 36 years, who insisted that James is ‘a great husband’.
Tine was still present when James told us that April is ‘the perfect girl’ — although not when he went into some detail about how exciting his and April’s sex life is. Or when he said that if he had to choose between her and his wife, he really doesn’t know which one he’d go for. And with that, he went back to gently washing April’s face and tenderly removing her head to repair her neck.
But, it seems, even the lovely April mightn’t be able to hang on to her man now that his eye’s been caught by a newer model. So what about the ethics of sleeping with robot sex dolls?
Matt duly took a rather pious line, arguing that any objections from oppressive bigots will gradually go the same way as homophobia and transphobia. Indeed, he clinchingly predicted, within 50 years, sex robots will be as widespread as porn. (So that’s OK, then.) Less thrilled was Kathleen Richardson, feminist academic and founder of the sci-fi-sounding Campaign Against Sex Robots. On Thursday, Richardson was allowed approximately a minute to make her case that these objects objectify women — but, given that the English language was on her side, she made it persuasively nonetheless. Even so, James’s own verdict was possibly the most telling of all for the future of male-robot relations. ‘It might be selfish,’ he said. ‘But I’m all right with that.’
Dracula 发表于 2017-12-1 22:42
刚看到的，是对英国电视台最近的一部纪录片The Sex Robots Are Coming的评论。我在网上找了一下，包括盗 ...
这个东西对人类社会的婚姻制度乃至被普遍接受甚至在某些情况下被升华的男女感情，乃至家庭人伦的冲击都是可怖的。发展下去，婚姻制度的解体是可以预期的（我的小外甥女和我说她无法想象和任何男生相爱，这样是不是太不正常啊，我安慰她说，你们这一代人，这个恐怕是常态，所以不必太忧虑），再发展下去，男女两性融合为单一性别也不是天方夜谭。我最乐观的估计是30年以后，性爱机器人如同我们现在的电子手表，真人情侣则更像瑞士机械表。这方面我们还是听听胸口碎钻石的@晨枫 晨老大滴高屋建瓴八
晨枫 发表于 2017-5-22 12:51
电脑取代一般文秘也是指日可待的事情，现在的秘书已经不是秘书了，而是办公室总管。 ...
人工智能第一次浪潮时的预言，1960左右，号称5年后，电子秘书代替人工秘书，结果成为人工智能界的笑谈，您老这个新预测，估计也够呛。
我们公司，因为国资背景，近期一下子增加了2-30位项目秘书，总公司要求这些秘书给予岗位，工资待遇要保障，即不能临时聘用。
这些秘书既有项目档案保管，项目组日常事务管理，但要完全通过电子化代替未来几年看不到希望，一是目前票证完全电子化，跨行业全国联网遥遥无期，所以将机票车票贴在报销凭证后面再找各级领导转圈签字这个手工技能电子化太困难。现在买材料、设备等等各种审批非常严格，我们公司是it类公司，开发个电子流程小菜一碟，但必须有纸质审批单流转保存
当然，以上日常秘书工作不足以让总公司指令性配备岗位秘书，是因为这几年反腐和行业整顿的要求，一是目前外部对国资公司的审计，二是单位内部建立的内审制度，具体内容我不太清楚，审计都是个性化的，好象2016年我们公司接受了总公司、行业部委、财政部和审计署四次审计，我们都觉得公司领导有点无能，部委和审计署都是抽审，总公司几十个下属公司，这种麻烦事怎么都跑到我们这个不张扬的公司来？每次审计基本都是查账，查凭证，有疑点找人问话。大量无法流程化有责任的事务，使得总公司下决心各个项目组配备岗位秘书，同时这些岗位秘书也承担公司内部审计功能，即公司每年做一次内审，根据内审重点，A项目秘书审计B，B审计C，...
从以上一些工作的简单描述，我觉得电子秘书替代人工秘书不太现实。
testjhy 发表于 2018-3-3 21:34
人工智能第一次浪潮时的预言，1960左右，号称5年后，电子秘书代替人工秘书，结果成为人工智能界的笑谈， ...
就法律责任牵字这一块，国外已经有docsign这种网络电子服务了。估计国内这方面思想上还没有跟上。我就经常签这玩意。
本帖最后由 晨枫 于 2018-3-3 08:50 编辑
testjhy 发表于 2018-3-3 07:34
人工智能第一次浪潮时的预言，1960左右，号称5年后，电子秘书代替人工秘书，结果成为人工智能界的笑谈， ...
秘书电子化肯定是与工作流程改革相对应的，比如你这个票据贴在报销单背后就不可能电子化。我们这里发公司的American Express卡，卡是公司的，但财务只有批准报销的钱才会打到卡上，否则是你自己的责任，但你自己还不能用作私用……
但AmEx每月发电子账单，更是直接与公司财务相连，在SAP上可以看到你的卡上的消费情况。报销的时候，点击就“拉进”报销单了。这是“铁”凭证，不用糨糊、订书钉。上司批准报销更是电子化了，还有电子回单和记录，便于各方查找。
文档电子化后，文件比过去更多了，而不是更少了，因为产生文件更容易了。不光日常文档存在公司的内部云上，操作规程、应用说明、采购通信往来、……都电子化了。我们还是有传真机，已经很少用了。部门的云管理由秘书负责，但秘书人数越来越少了。
这只是一个例子。
那下一代的孩子们不是都要学习编程、设计了？不然，都没法谋生了
Dracula 发表于 2017-12-2 11:42
刚看到的，是对英国电视台最近的一部纪录片The Sex Robots Are Coming的评论。我在网上找了一下，包括盗 ...
The Sex Robots Are Coming的视频好像网上有了，
本帖最后由 晨枫 于 2018-3-4 00:27 编辑
amons 发表于 2018-3-3 21:07
那下一代的孩子们不是都要学习编程、设计了？不然，都没法谋生了
学习什么样的编程和设计是一个问题，但学是肯定要学的，就像要学语文、算术、英文一样。