不爱吱声 发表于 2017-9-29 10:33
贫富差距会愈加严重不假，但社会更不稳定却不见得。
因为现实世界中的贫富差距在虚拟的世界中没有意义 ...
美国的民意最近的10年是明显往左转的。不仅民主党内部Sanders那派的势力越来越大，就是共和党内，Trump在经济问题上的言论其实和民主党很相似（当然他的实际政策不是那么回事）。在国内政策上，劫富济贫这种呼声是越来越高，Trump的铁杆支持者里很多人都是支持的。国际政策上，赞同自由贸易的是越来越少，国家之间在经济上的摩擦冲突未来会是越来越多。而且他们的不满不是加一点福利就能够平息的。工作不仅是谋生的一种手段，对大多数人来说还是人生的意义之所在。人生没了意义，也就更可能会陷入绝望，现在美国的opioid危机就和这有很大关系。而这几年美国各种族，阶层之间矛盾加剧应该也是同这有关。随着人工智能的发展，这种情况变得更坏我觉得是很有可能的。
你说的虚拟世界，其实就像是电影Matrix中那样。在那儿吃饭喝水都不用自己费力，管子插上就行了，更方便。我不知道现实中有几个人愿意生活在那种状态。如果人类的未来会那么发展的话，对我来说确实是很可怕的。
煮酒正熟 发表于 2017-9-29 10:33
你描述的趋势 --- 就是在人工智能不受控制地随意发展的情况下社会和文化和个人生存状态的变化 --- 我比较 ...
象二当家说的，只要不是未来人类大同，世界政府的话，人工智能的发展是不可能真正限制的。这不仅是国家间经济上的竞争，还肯定会大规模应用在军事上。如果真是世界政府的话，我想了一下，但还真是不清楚是极权还是民主制度会更加限制这种技术发展，两边我都能想到它的arguments。极权政府可能会更加考虑怎么用这种技术来控制民众，但民主制度下自由多一些可能会更难控制。另外关于大资本，几个月前，比尔盖茨就建议对机器人额外加税，收上来的钱可以补贴工人。大资本中的有识之士也会有很多支持对人工智能技术进行限制的。
现在Trump的铁杆支持者把矛头是指向移民，外国人。10年、20年之后很可能敌人就会变为机器。那时欧美的政治同现在相比可能会有非常大的变化。
Dracula 发表于 2017-9-28 21:48
美国的民意最近的10年是明显往左转的。不仅民主党内部Sanders那派的势力越来越大，就是共和党内，Trump在 ...
“人生的意义”这种东西原本就是人为创造出来了，是一种凭空想象。这种东西能驱使人去主动做对自己并没有明显现实好处的事情，这种东西更多的是靠“信仰”，而这种“信仰”的获得是靠“灌输洗脑”使得更多的成员认可。
但是，这种东西由于是想象出来的，所以也是可以变的，当人类从农耕社会过度到资本主义社会，人生的意义就曾经改变过，同样在人类未来的社会，那时人生意义也肯定跟现在不一样了，至于以后的人生意义是啥，我是不知道，我只知道人类社会的价值观是随时代变化而变化的，而这一过程也肯定是各种反复，各种抗拒，最后慢慢过渡的，我是相信个体的好恶抵挡不了历史前进的车轮的，大趋势是很难阻挡的。从历史上看，人类社会的变迁，进化并不是以人的好恶来决定的，而是生产力高的必然取代低的，哪怕对个体来说，新的生活并不比旧的生活更快乐。
现实中没有几个人愿意生活在那种状态，不代表未来的人不愿意生活在那种状态。设想早期人类以采集为生，他们每天出去干四个小时活，剩下时间就可以晒太阳了，然后可以四海为家，更自由，他们一定觉得过农民那种日出而作日落而息，只能呆在自己的一亩三分地，还要受传染病威胁的日子是很可怕的。而在农业社会的人，大部分还是能够安居乐业自得其乐的。
本帖最后由 爱之深责之切 于 2017-9-29 14:18 编辑
机器人时代，能有工作的除了政府管理者，搞文学艺术影视的、搞医学研究的、搞新算法研究的和搞其它学科研究的，在机器人不能维修机器人之前，机器人维修工还需要人工，剩下的90%以上的人估计只能去搞吃喝玩乐这些
爱之深责之切 发表于 2017-9-29 14:13
机器人时代，能有工作的除了政府管理者，搞文学艺术影视的、搞医学研究的、搞新算法研究的和搞其它学科研究 ...
剩下的人每天工作4小时，每周工作4天，现在一个人的工作分给3个人干，欧耶！
爱之深责之切 发表于 2017-9-29 14:13
机器人时代，能有工作的除了政府管理者，搞文学艺术影视的、搞医学研究的、搞新算法研究的和搞其它学科研究 ...
我以前在日志里转过一篇文章，现在已经有写小说，写电影剧本的人工智能了，结果也挺有意思的，而且这还是没有大公司真正投资研究。在可预见的未来能写出战争与和平的人工智能应该还不太可能，但是能写通俗小说，编个普通的电影电视剧本的人工智能我觉得10年、20年很可能就会出现。一般的流行音乐更没多少创造性，AI能作词作曲应该也不难。
搞研究，就经济学来说，其实绝大多数论文包括不少发表在最好杂志里的，也没有很多创造性。尤其是经验研究，分析数据的那种论文，我觉得10年、20年之内能出现成批生产论文的机器是很有可能的。而且人的论文还有可能犯低级错误，还可能造假，机器不会，它们比人是有优势的。其它的学科我猜应该也差不多，除了很顶尖的，需要很多创造性的研究工作，机器取代不了，绝大多数研究人员的工作其实也不安全。
能生产出能修机器，至少是能日常维护的机器人应该更容易。我是觉得未来除了极其顶尖的人才，超过99%的人的工作都会被机器取代。
我认为此事不用担心。
从人类的科技发展史上看，最早大规模提高效率应该是机器的发明使用，早期也有人担心机器会夺去手工工人的工作造成大规模失业，实际并没有发生。现实是科技越发达，机器使用越多的国家失业率越低。
另外生产效率越高的国家也越有条件对最低收入阶层救济补助，发达国家吃低保的人生活都比许多国家的普通工人好。
这是不是救了日本这样萎缩的社会？
其实解决机器人普及带來的社会问题，有一个办法，那就是实现共产主义，各尽所能，各取所需。爱画画的就画画，象晨大那样爱摄影的就搞摄影，只要有爱好，钻研下去，人类就会有更大的进步。
早就觉得未来不是劳动力短缺的问题，计划生育并非失策。未来劳动力并不堪忧。基数在那里摆着
Men at tech fair molest £3,000 sex robot so much it’s left broken and ‘heavily soiled’
http://metro.co.uk/2017/09/27/men-at-tech-fair-molest-3000-sex-robot-so-much-its-left-broken-and-heavily-soiled-6960778/?ito=fb
Samantha’s developer Sergi Santos from Barcelona, Spain said that people at the Arts Electronica Festival in Linz treated the doll ‘like barbarians’.
The doll – which reacts intelligently to touch, and talks – was left filthy and broken by the never-ending male attention, and has now been sent off for repair.
According to Austrian media, who tested Samantha, she reacts when someone massages her breasts, by moaning.
https://metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/pri_52077998.jpg?w=620&h=500&crop=1
‘People can be bad. Because they did not understand the technology and did not have to pay for it, they treated the doll like barbarians.’
Mr Santos said Samantha had to be sent back in a parcel to Barcelona for repairs and cleaning, but he added: ‘Samantha can endure a lot, she will pull through.’
Previous surveys have suggested that up to half of men would consider having sex with a lifelike robot.
Writing last year, David Levy author of Love and Sex With Robots said, ‘This coming wave of sex robots will be humanlike in appearance and size. They will have human-like genitals. And they will allow intercourse according to their owner’s sexual orientation and tastes.
不爱吱声 发表于 2017-9-29 08:53
这个不难吧。
建立虚拟游戏世界，无业者有社会提供足够好的物质保障（这点对于机器主导的社会很容易实现 ...
这个场景好熟悉啊，好像是黑客帝国{:199:}
物流业也不能幸免，自动化仓储提货备货包装装箱，传统的物流蓝领职位在未来十年之内恐怕要消失至少三分之一
喜欢就捧捧场 发表于 2017-9-30 17:46
物流业也不能幸免，自动化仓储提货备货包装装箱，传统的物流蓝领职位在未来十年之内恐怕要消失至少三分之一 ...
物流业最重视成本了。如果蓝领消失三分之一，那么白领得消失多少呢？
煮酒正熟 发表于 2017-9-29 10:33
你描述的趋势 --- 就是在人工智能不受控制地随意发展的情况下社会和文化和个人生存状态的变化 --- 我比较 ...
加黑的那句是我加的。
How sex robots could help with the nuts and bolts of relationships
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/03/sexbots-nuts-bolts-relationships-sex-robots?CMP=share_btn_tw
Sex robots do not currently exist. While some early proto-sexbots have been developed, there is as yet no technology that offers a plausibly realistic approximation of sex with a human being. However, sexbots are coming – in the near future, we will be able to have sex with robot partners that can speak and move, and that look very much like real people. Many people are concerned that their impact may be detrimental. Their concerns are not all unwarranted, but there are also arguments in favour of this technology that have not been adequately articulated. Sexbots may even have the potential to enhance human relationships.
We currently ask a lot of our relationships. We want emotionally compatible companions. We want someone to share household duties and finances. We want someone who will be a good co-parent to our children. And on top of all of this, we want someone who will excite us sexually and meet our sexual needs – forever. The model is not working. As the author Dan Savage says: “Relationship graveyards around the world are crowded with tombstones that read: ‘Everything was great … other than the sex.’“
Could sexbots help? There are reasons to think they might. They have the potential to address one of the main sources of dissatisfaction in relationships: the simple need for variety. In a Ted talk, psychotherapist Esther Perel has argued that a major challenge to “mating in captivity”, as she calls long-term relationships, is that of finding a way to meet our need both for security and for surprise. Faced with this intractable dilemma, many people find themselves drawn to infidelity. To avoid this, some couples experiment with non-monogamy – but even its proponents admit this solution is “complicated” and “not for everyone”.
Sexbots may offer a solution that is simpler and less painful than either of these. They can provide people with novelty and variety without threatening the relationship itself. They can also address the problem of discrepancies in the desire for sex, which relationship therapists say is the most common sexual problem among couples seeking therapy. When one person persistently wants more sex than their partner, a robot could bridge the gap.
Commentators have speculated that the users of sexbots will be mostly men. But there is reason to wonder whether this will prove true. The problem of maintaining desire in a long-term relationship is one that disproportionately affects women. Studies indicate that women’s libido drops off over time not because women are less sexual than men, but because many simply find the prospect of sex with the same person for an entire lifetime to be less than arousing. This is compounded by the fact that men are not especially good at doing the things women want in bed.
Women already dominate the market for sex toys. If we remove the stigma surrounding sex robots, it is not unreasonable to think the same might be true of the sexbot market. Not only can sex robots be programmed to do exactly what women want, they can be made with physical features that can enhance women’s pleasure in ways a human partner cannot.
While many women want variety, they also, understandably, want to feel safe around their partners – as do men. This is particularly true of survivors of sexual violence. Commentators worry that sexbots will have personalities that are passive and obedient. The concern is that this will accustom their male users to expect the same from their human partners. But for a survivor of sexual trauma, a partner who is entirely unthreatening and who always follows your lead may not seem like such a horrible prospect. Sexbots may prove to be an important therapeutic tool in helping trauma survivors heal, and to transition back into relationships with human partners.
Variety is not the only source of tension in relationships. Many partners have different sexual preferences. One person may be into BDSM or other kinks that do not appeal to her partner, for instance. Sexbots might allow each member of the couple to pursue these kinks, when they want it, without destroying the relationship.
In extreme cases, having a sexbot may allow people to give up on sex altogether and live in a companionate marriage. They may do so for their children’s sake, or just because they enjoy the other person’s company too much to trade in the relationship for one that might have more sex but that is less emotionally satisfying. Is this so bad? Many people do it already. Sexbots offer such people a chance to avoid a life from which sexual satisfaction has been removed entirely.
We should by no means imagine that everyone will see a sexbot as an alternative to a partner. A sexbot might actually be something a couple shares, the same way that many sex toys are used as part of sex with one’s partner.
Sex robots will not be for everyone, obviously, and their use within relationships will require discussion and negotiation. They will certainly not solve anyone’s problems by magic. But used with due care, and with the consent of everyone involved, they have the potential to make our relationships stronger and more interesting. There is no need to call in the blade runners just yet.
风俗业也要被机器人替代了？
爱之深责之切 发表于 2017-10-4 10:30
风俗业也要被机器人替代了？
这个我是不信的，各种传说的服务项目机器人能帮你做？目前也就实现个智能反馈了。其他一律谈不上
晨大写的好，这个行业倒是创业的机会
煮酒正熟 发表于 2017-9-29 10:33
你描述的趋势 --- 就是在人工智能不受控制地随意发展的情况下社会和文化和个人生存状态的变化 --- 我比较 ...
体操机器人
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRj34o4hN4I
机器人用在军事上也不会很遥远。
爱之深责之切 发表于 2017-10-4 10:30
风俗业也要被机器人替代了？
绝对可以，个个漂亮，只要把一次性用品换得好，完全可以“安全”啪啪，无套中出还不怕用各种疾病，