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标题: 特朗普的第一个100天（续5） [打印本页]

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-6 02:18
标题: 特朗普的第一个100天（续5）


据说特朗普现象后，传统媒体一反近些年来被网络媒体侵蚀得百孔千疮的颓势，销售量猛增。这么多花絮新闻，想不猛增都难。在风平浪静的日子里，网络媒体像寄生虫一样吸附在传统媒体上，免费、迅速地传播各种消息。但传统媒体的“深喉”消息源、分析能力、历史数据是网络媒体无法比拟的。特朗普猛轰传统媒体，更是给不少人额外的理由，要对传统媒体格外关注、支持了。

《华盛顿邮报》报道，新上任的司法部长塞申斯在大选期间，至少两次与俄罗斯大使接触，但他在国会听证期间，针对非常明确的问题，非常明确地回答他从未与俄罗斯方面有接触。特朗普这次不同于弗林那时，力挺塞申斯。民主党方面则以塞申斯在誓词情况下向国会撒谎而辞职。实事求是地说，把塞申斯和参议院格拉汉姆的对话再听一遍，塞申斯确实是那么说的，但也可以理解为他在回答“作为特朗普竞选团队的一员是否与俄罗斯有接触”，而不是在任何情况下是否有接触。与不担任任何公职的弗林不同，塞申斯是参议员，可以因为公务而与俄罗斯大使接触的。他辩解说，他的接触与大选无关，到底是不是有关，除非又被美国情报局窃听了，俄罗斯大使不说，谁也不知道了。

但这对塞申斯还是非常被动。即使顶住辞职压力，他也被迫按照听证时承诺的，回避有关对俄罗斯联系的调查。现在还不清楚是谁在负责，司法部副部长好像还没有任命、听证、上任，原来代理的奥巴马的人被撤职了，后来那个联邦法官不知道是不是还在留任。问题是，这样的大事本来应该是司法部长亲自挂帅的，他是代表政府（或者总统）的最高律师。现在塞申斯回避了，如此重任交给一个并不可靠的人，甚至可能是奥巴马余党，调查下去就无轨电车了。当年斯塔尔开始调查的时候，是针对克林顿夫妇在白水事件里的事情，那就是一个利用职权非法牟利的事情，而且规模并不太大。但后来挖出一串克林顿的桃色事件，最后高潮当然就是莫妮卡•露温斯基了。斯塔尔建议国会弹劾克林顿，但克林顿裤裆拉链管不好，国家经济和外交大事还是近几十年来民主党总统里管得最好的，克林顿侥幸过关了。现在司法部要调查大选期间俄罗斯影响，民主党在要求任命权力很大的特别检察官，共和党极力反对，就是怕牵连出谁也无法估计的臭事来。常在河边走，谁的脚底下都不干净。但即使不任命特别检察官，司法部负责的副部长（或者其他什么人）也拥有巨大的权力，而且部长或者总统都很难罢免，实际上是失控的。难怪新闻里报导，特朗普对塞申斯主动回避之事暴跳如雷。

特朗普自己也快遇到大麻烦了。特朗普一贯大嘴，但这次嘴有点太大了，连国会共和党都看不下去了。大概是出于以毒攻毒的目的，特朗普接连抛出大炸弹，指责奥巴马或者他的人在指点示威，也是层出不穷的政府泄密的来源。现在更是升级了，指责奥巴马在大选期间下令窃听特朗普，并要求国会调查。如果说煽动和泄密还是很含混的一般指责，既无法证明有，也无法证明无，奥巴马下令窃听就是很明确的指控了，而且这是在控告奥巴马违法。奥巴马方面当然一口否认，奥巴马时代的美国情报总管克莱帕也否认。

问题是，除非有明确的里通外国嫌疑，对大选候选人下令窃听是严重违法的。这是重罪，不是说说而已、转移个话题就可以过去的。现总统控告前总统更是史无前例，这可能迫使国会和司法部展开调查，要么特朗普拿出过硬的证据，把奥巴马关进监狱，要么特朗普诬告，自己进监狱。

特朗普自己没有拿出任何证据，现在有说法他的消息来自布莱巴特新闻，就是班农曾经主持（现在可能还是有影响）的那个极右媒体，那边的消息来源不明。现在国会共和党也要求特朗普拿出证据，但白宫新闻发言人斯派塞被问及时，同样没有提供任何证据，只是泛泛地说道：

Reports concerning potentially politically motivated investigations immediately ahead of the 2016 election are very troubling. President Trump is requesting that as part of their investigation into Russian activity, the congressional intelligence committees exercise their oversight authority to determine whether executive branch investigative powers were abused in 2016.

也就是说，要求把对奥巴马滥用职权放到俄罗斯影响问题里，一起调查。很有点洗地的意思，但又不敢太明显了，变成此地无银三百两。

但奥巴马方面只是说，总统从未下令对任何美国公民窃听。换句话说，FBI是否窃听，就不是奥巴马的事了。但除非出现无法无天的事情，FBI窃听任何人都要法官批准，对总统候选人的批准标准更加严格。如果FBI确实窃听了，那只能是出于特朗普团队与俄罗斯的非正常接触，呈交法官的原始怀疑性证据应该相当充分，这当然对特朗普是不利的。如果FBI没有窃听，那特朗普这诬告的性质就严重了。诬告前总统犯罪与诬告邻居损坏你家花草可不是一回事。

毫无疑问，民主党不管是出于党争，还是对特朗普干掉希拉里的私仇，都在处处下绊子。共和党建制派对特朗普也是一肚子不满。特朗普小圈子里的政治民科也在处处添乱，他自己的自以为是更是于事无补。

他在想以毒攻毒，以火攻火，问题是，趁乱打劫的前提是对方要乱，或者能轻易把对方的阵势打乱。现在看来，这就是民科和专科的差别，民科凭感觉，专科凭经验。经验就是沙盘演习，预测对方会从哪里下蛆，相应地扎紧营盘，在对方盲动中暴露更多漏洞，削弱、杀伤、粉碎对方的攻击，直到最后的致命一击。就像罗马方阵对付蛮族一样。现在看来，民主党那边没有明显的漏洞，至少还没有暴露。特朗普这样的无差别、无具体目标的散乱攻击到后来只能暴露更多的漏洞。

更重要的是，除非特朗普自己犯大错误，民主党（或者说跨党派的建制派）用这样的制造热点的办法，破坏特朗普政府的执政力。现在看来，特朗普拍胸脯的第一个100天就改天换日像是做不到了，这样失去冲势的话，第一年就完蛋了，第二年都不一定缓得过来，国会中期选举就有可能翻盘，特朗普的第二个四年就更加遥远。

对于共和党来说，特朗普也是个麻烦。别忘了，国会共和党尽管政见与民主党相反，但他们也是建制派，只是代表了既得利益集团的另一边而已。共和党还有茶党的麻烦。特朗普要增加540亿军费，麦凯恩要增加800亿，关键是这些钱从哪里出。特朗普现在的预算案是砍国务院，以至于有人开玩笑，把蒂勒森弄去当国务卿，是因为他在埃克森裁员有经验了。但砍国务院是砍软实力，软实力是班农总统、特朗普副总统所不屑的，但两党建制派都很看重的。另外就是预算平衡问题。预算控制法案（BCA）是奥巴马时代两党对平衡预算争执不下的双输结果。在BCA制约下，预算赤字增速有所控制，但军事实力萎缩，基础设施凋零。现在的共识是BCA必须撤销，但共识也就这点，接下去又回到老地方：要保开支（军费和社保）就要增加赤字，要减赤字就要减开支。茶党几次迫使政府停摆，就是坚决拒绝增加赤字。那减开支减谁呢？军费要加，不能减；社保想动而不敢动（还记得特朗普的no one knew healthcare could be so complicated吗）；国务院不是肉牛，只是个没有多少肉的兔子，全宰了都填不满漏洞；还有谁呢，快举手！

接下去的预算战役是恶战，会打成什么样子还不知道。共和党虽然有国会多数，还是要小心迎战，因为现在共和党成了托盘子的，而民主党才是砸盘子的。托盘子难啊，马必须跑，但草从哪里来？弄到最后，还是只能靠变戏法。

预算之后，税改是又一场硬仗。这其实跟中国的营改增很像，只是增加了鼓励出口的内容。税改的内容应该没有太大的争议，但实施是非常大的问题，这是律师和会计师的美梦成真，纳税人的噩梦成真。对于农贸市场上的小生意人来说，要弄清这里面每一根线、每一份布料、每一个纽扣的出生地和转手过程，这太TMD难了。

然后是更大的问题：工作岗位！还得是门槛较低的工作岗位，是缺乏教育和专业训练的失业蓝领就能入行的。重建制造业的问题说了很多了。简单地说，资本没有爱国心，天然是逐利而来的。除非美国制造业提供更大的盈利，资本没有理由放弃更好的机会而投资美国。特朗普的药方是基本建设，这是公益性投资，回报来自全社会的发展，既不直接，也是长期的。特朗普要公共投资和私人投资并举，看他准备卖掉几栋特朗普塔来响应国家（呃，自己）的号召了。

民主党要做的就是促使特朗普不断犯错误，在不断的热点之间内耗时间和精力，一事无成，甚至事情还没有启动就已经破灭。现在看来是有可能做到的。然后呢，当然就是民主党上台，换一套口号，自己托盘子，轮到共和党砸盘子，一切照旧，或者说螺旋形……折算上升还是下降？

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-6 02:29
拉链门特检官是Ken Starr, 斯塔克是吃了一枚飞鱼的那条佩里

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-6 02:32

holycow 发表于 2017-3-5 12:29
拉链门特检官是Ken Starr, 斯塔克是吃了一枚飞鱼的那条佩里

差不多嘛，不要吹毛求纰嘛

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-6 02:34
前司法部长林奇也回避对希姨的调查，最后也没出乱子。司法部副部长的人选很关键

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-6 02:35

holycow 发表于 2017-3-5 12:34
前司法部长林奇也回避对希姨的调查，最后也没出乱子。司法部副部长的人选很关键 ...

哈哈哈。对了，现在各部部长都听证通过几个了？副部长呢？好像Wilbur Ross还在queue里？

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-6 02:38

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-5 10:35
哈哈哈。对了，现在各部部长都听证通过几个了？副部长呢？好像Wilbur Ross还在queue里？ ...

Ross过了，然后加拿大人的大耳括子就扇上来了 副部长就没听说提名的。

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-6 03:05

holycow 发表于 2017-3-5 12:38
Ross过了，然后加拿大人的大耳括子就扇上来了 副部长就没听说提名的。 ...

Keystone XL的钢管问题还是不明白，是已经买好了退赔太高，还是美国造不出这样的钢管？这东西倒是特种管，但美国应该有这个能力啊。

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-6 03:16

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-5 11:05
Keystone XL的钢管问题还是不明白，是已经买好了退赔太高，还是美国造不出这样的钢管？这东西倒是特种管 ...

加拿大人说已经买了

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-6 03:42

holycow 发表于 2017-3-5 13:16
加拿大人说已经买了

这就对了。“特朗普啊，我们很愿意用美国钢管，但这些已经买好了，你的退赔我的退货损失。”特朗普一看，算了，你多雇几个工地的safety watch吧，咱么就算平了。

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作者: testjhy    时间: 2017-3-6 21:17
感谢本拉登，911给中国和平发展的十年，下面是不是要感谢川普大总统，美国无产阶级文化大革命，又给中国和平发展十年？

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作者: 小赵    时间: 2017-3-6 23:14
吃瓜群众 搬着小板凳看戏。

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作者: jellobean    时间: 2017-3-6 23:50
哈哈哈，哈哈哈

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作者: 五月    时间: 2017-3-7 01:41

人家奥大统领是律师，说话艺术当然不是包工头川总能赶得上的了。

The Good Wife美剧里提到过窃听的批准问题。法官批准窃听某人，同时批准窃听由该人引申出来的嫌疑人。比如奥总下令窃听俄国大使，毛熊大使当然不是美国公民。当大使和某美国公民（碰巧该公民就在川总塔里上班）通电话，那么情报部门窃听的当然是毛熊而不是美国公民。所以奥总说自己没有下令窃听“美国公民”并没有扯谎。

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-3-8 03:22
昨天共和党推出了他们的医疗改革方案。今天早上我看了一下，不论是保守派，自由派还是专门研究医疗经济学的专家，就没有一个对这个方案说好话的。至少就现在来看，这个方案能通过国会两院的可能性不大。而一旦医疗改革失败，没了momentum，税制改革，基础设施建设的通过也都会变得更困难重重。Trump第一年两手空空，没有任何立法成就的可能性现在看来挺大。

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-8 03:32

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-7 13:22
昨天共和党推出了他们的医疗改革方案。今天早上我看了一下，不论是保守派，自由派还是专门研究医疗经济学的 ...

如果他连这个Obamacare Lite也推不动，真有可能一事无成。第一年推不动，后面更难成事。这对茶党和建制外的政治民科会有什么长远影响，很值得玩味呢。或者看到困难，偃旗息鼓；或者放弃体制，彻底革命。不管怎么样，民主政治的精髓是妥协和平衡，这看来是难做到了。

不过我但是挺欣赏Paul Ryan的税改，VAT是大势所趋，只是这个BAT太复杂。用意是好的，实施起来问题太多，要是去掉，直接改简单VAT，会成吗？

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-8 04:21

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-7 11:32
如果他连这个Obamacare Lite也推不动，真有可能一事无成。第一年推不动，后面更难成事。这对茶党和建制外 ...

Over Ryan's dead body

美国政治的带电第三条铁轨，就是不能搞老欧洲的东西。O8倒是想把健保搞成NHS来着，能成吗？  VAT，都洗洗睡了去

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-3-8 04:25
从Twitter上看到的，Sean Spicer在记者招待会上被问到关于监听的问题，"Why would he want congress to investigate something he already has?"，他的回答几乎是语无伦次。

https://twitter.com/TomNamako/status/839202704794796036

Trump政府应该是什么证据也没有，就是他从Breitbart上看了的那篇文章，心血来潮。要不然现在也不会这么狼狈。

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-8 06:34

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-7 14:25
从Twitter上看到的，Sean Spicer在记者招待会上被问到关于监听的问题，"Why would he want congress to inv ...

这个总统也是不让手下省心啊，成天忙着洗地。

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-3-8 20:48
China grants preliminary approval to 38 new Trump trademarks

https://www.bloomberg.com/politi ... ew-trump-trademarks

我现在也觉得中美之间是不会有什么严重冲突了。另外你以前提到的盗用Ivanka商标的中国厂商也要小心了。可能中国政府会对他们专门严打。

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作者: jerf71    时间: 2017-3-9 12:00

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-8 20:48
China grants preliminary approval to 38 new Trump trademarks

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/art ...

那是肯定的，有所失，必有所得。TG恨不得马上就查，就等着最后的讨价还价的结果吧，

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-3-14 02:28
Kushners Set to Get $400 Million From Chinese Firm on Tower

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-13/kushners-set-to-get-400-million-from-chinese-on-marquee-tower

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-14 03:45

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-13 12:28
Kushners Set to Get $400 Million From Chinese Firm on Tower

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ...

这不早晚的事嘛。我现在很想看2020年大选时特朗普有什么说辞，如果他坚持得了那么久。

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-3-15 13:19
McMaster在National Security Council连决定staffing的权力都没有，都是Kushner和Bannon说了算。他就是个摆设。没准过几个月就得被迫退伍了。


Bannon and Kushner prevail on the president to override his national security adviser and keep a Flynn protégé.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trump-national-security-mcmaster-overrule-236065


President Donald Trump has overruled a decision by his national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, to sideline a key intelligence operative who fell out of favor with some at the Central Intelligence Agency, two sources told POLITICO.

On Friday, McMaster told the National Security Council’s senior director for intelligence programs, Ezra Cohen-Watnick, that he would be moved to another position in the organization.

The conversation followed weeks of pressure from career officials at the CIA who had expressed reservations about the 30-year-old intelligence operative and pushed for his ouster.

But Cohen-Watnick appealed McMaster’s decision to two influential allies with whom he had forged a relationship while working on Trump’s transition team — White House advisers Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner. They brought the matter to Trump on Sunday, and the president agreed that Cohen-Watnick should remain as the NSC’s intelligence director, according to two people with knowledge of the episode.

The incident raises questions about just how much autonomy Trump is giving to McMaster, who was tapped last month as national security adviser amid questions about whether he’d have full staffing authority over the NSC.

It also highlights ongoing tensions between the CIA and Trump aides who are skeptical of the agency, feeding into concerns expressed by the president and his allies about the intelligence community.

Trump has questioned the intelligence agencies’ findings that Russia tried to boost his campaign by hacking emails from allies of his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, and some of his allies have leveled allegations — much derided in the media — that there’s a “deep state” of career intelligence officers who are looking to undermine the new president, and to consolidate their power in the Trump era.

Cohen-Watnick was brought onto Trump’s transition team and then the NSC by a leading critic of the CIA: retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who was Cohen-Watnick’s boss at the Defense Intelligence Agency and preceded McMaster as national security adviser.

Cohen-Watnick and Flynn “saw eye to eye about the failings of the CIA human intelligence operations,” said a Washington consultant who travels in intelligence circles. “The CIA saw him as a threat, so they tried to unseat him and replace him with an agency loyalist,” the operative said.

Cohen-Watnick, Kushner and Bannon did not respond to requests for comment. The White House press office referred questions to the NSC. Spokesman Michael Anton declined to comment.

CIA spokesman Dean Boyd said the agency is not focused on NSC personnel issues.

“Mike Pompeo [the CIA director] is focused completely on ensuring that CIA is doing everything in its power to provide policymakers with the best intelligence possible and to protect the nation against adversaries,” said Boyd.

Some Trump allies harbor a deep distrust of the agency and see Flynn's ouster as an example of how the CIA is trying to undermine the new administration.

Flynn resigned under pressure after it was reported last month that he had misled Vice President Mike Pence by telling him that during the transition, he had not discussed U.S. sanctions against Russia with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak. In fact, Kislyak touched on the subject with Flynn in several conversations monitored by U.S. intelligence agencies. The Washington Post cited nine current and former senior officials describing the calls.

Even before Flynn’s dismissal, one of his top deputies, Robin Townley, a senior director for Africa, was forced out after the CIA rejected his request for the high-level security clearance required for service on the NSC. Some Trump allies contend that the grounds upon which the security clearance was denied were shaky at best, and that the real reason was that Townley was a Flynn loyalist who had voiced skepticism of the CIA’s intelligence-gathering techniques.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes, a close Trump ally, has asked the Federal Bureau of Investigation to investigate the leaks of classified information that produced a series of damaging media reports, including the Flynn calls, as well as alleged leaks related to the rejection of Townley’s security clearance.

In an interview on Fox News last month, Nunes called the leaks “totally unacceptable.” And, he added, “I think most of this is probably from people who were in the old administration, but there still could be some people that have burrowed in and are providing classified information to the media.”

---

作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-15 13:31

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-14 23:19
McMaster在National Security Council连决定staffing的权力都没有，都是Kushner和Bannon说了算。他就是个摆 ...

哈哈，我也估计他呆不长。

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-16 02:19

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-13 11:45
这不早晚的事嘛。我现在很想看2020年大选时特朗普有什么说辞，如果他坚持得了那么久。 ...

这才666 Fifth Ave, 要是888 Fifth Ave能卖得更多

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作者: 逸云三洲    时间: 2017-3-16 09:13

holycow 发表于 2017-3-16 02:19
这才666 Fifth Ave, 要是888 Fifth Ave能卖得更多

安邦已经出面否认买楼

---

作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-3-16 12:48

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-15 13:19
McMaster在National Security Council连决定staffing的权力都没有，都是Kushner和Bannon说了算。他就是个摆 ...

Trump’s budget calls for seismic disruption in medical and science research

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trumps-budget-would-slash-scientific-and-medical-research/2017/03/15/d3261f98-0998-11e7-a15f-a58d4a988474_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.aa94e89948af

The National Institutes of Health, for example, would be cut by nearly $6 billion, about a fifth of the NIH budget.

The blueprint does not mention the National Science Foundation, which provides more than $7 billion annually in grants. That may fall under the category of “other agencies,” which are not detailed but which the blueprint puts down for a 9.8 percent cut.

@tanis

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-16 13:53

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-15 20:48
Trump’s budget calls for seismic disruption in medical and science research

https://www.washingt ...

这个预算案没有通过的可能，只能当opening bid来看

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-17 01:15
White House announces Patrick Shanahan, Boeing senior vice president, to serve in No. 2 position at Pentagon

这是闯王想要的人，马蒂斯又输了。

Bob Work最好把F-35 review做完再走，不然麻烦大了

---

作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-17 04:39

holycow 发表于 2017-3-15 23:53
这个预算案没有通过的可能，只能当opening bid来看

要保持赤字不增加，又要增加10%军费，这个预算要弄别样还不好办呢。

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-17 04:41

holycow 发表于 2017-3-16 11:15
White House announces Patrick Shanahan, Boeing senior vice president, to serve in No. 2 position at  ...

哈哈，F-35C药丸？马蒂斯想要的是谁？Bob Work有什么麻烦呢，他也不喜欢F-35C啊？

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-17 04:59

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-16 12:41
哈哈，F-35C药丸？马蒂斯想要的是谁？Bob Work有什么麻烦呢，他也不喜欢F-35C啊？ ...

你能想象让一个波音的人来接手review肥电Vs超级虫吗？

---

作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-17 05:44

holycow 发表于 2017-3-16 14:59
你能想象让一个波音的人来接手review肥电Vs超级虫吗？

哈哈，太能想象了。review is complete, here are the findings, but long story short： you should buy F-18E。

---

作者: tanis    时间: 2017-3-17 11:01

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-16 12:48
Trump’s budget calls for seismic disruption in medical and science research

https://www.washingt ...

恩。。。已经失掉了几乎要到手的15万。 之前funding manager看了proposal，私下说基本稳中。结果之前被告之，整个项目很有被取消的危险，现在评审活动全部暂停。

我现在很后悔，去年就应该先投了。

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-3-18 03:17


Rex Tillerson到韩国访问，谢绝午餐和晚宴，理由是“fatigue”。他是不是不打算干下去，准备辞职了。


http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20170317000859

A joint news conference aside, Tillerson spent almost 2 1/2 hours with Japanese Foreign Minister Kishida including a dinner, and another hour with Prime Minister Abe. But his meetings with Yun and Hwang were each confined to about an hour, without a lunch or dinner gathering. Seoul officials said the US side opted not to have a meal together, citing the secretary’s “fatigue.”

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-18 03:26

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-17 13:17
Rex Tillerson到韩国访问，谢绝午餐和晚宴，理由是“fatigue”。他是不是不打算干下去，准备辞职了。

他要么是个深藏不露的大棋党，要么就在等国务院给他一个severance package。

没有这样关起门来的外交部长。

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-22 03:57
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson plans to skip a meeting with NATO foreign ministers next month in order to stay home for a visit by China's president and will go to Russia later in April, U.S. officials said on Monday, disclosing an itinerary that allies may see as giving Moscow priority over them.

Tillerson intends to miss what would have been his first meeting of the 28 NATO allies on April 5-6 in Brussels so that he can attend President Donald Trump's expected April 6-7 talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, four current and former U.S. officials said.

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-22 05:11

holycow 发表于 2017-3-21 13:57
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson plans to skip a meeting with NATO foreign ministers next month ...

北约很有怨妇的感觉啊

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-22 05:13

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-21 13:11
北约很有怨妇的感觉啊

T-Rex也要stay relevant啊，上次安倍来海湖庄的时候他就在北约当亲善大使，总不成这次还当亲善大使

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-22 05:35

holycow 发表于 2017-3-21 15:13
T-Rex也要stay relevant啊，上次安倍来海湖庄的时候他就在北约当亲善大使，总不成这次还当亲善大使{:219: ...

他不就是个高级传声筒嘛，那么认真干什么？

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-3-22 11:40

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-22 05:35
他不就是个高级传声筒嘛，那么认真干什么？

Rex Tillerson关于他为什么要当国务卿。



http://ijr.com/2017/03/814687-trumps-diplomat/

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-22 12:33

Dracula 发表于 2017-3-21 21:40
Rex Tillerson关于他为什么要当国务卿。

会不会是特朗普对那些体制里的人一个也看不上、不放心，只好用一个体制外的人，就像老邓当年用老江一样？

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-3-22 13:41

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-21 20:33
会不会是特朗普对那些体制里的人一个也看不上、不放心，只好用一个体制外的人，就像老邓当年用老江一样？ ...

这篇文章是T-Rex钦点的唯一随行御用媒体的专访，当然是他想放什么话就通过这个专访放出来。

他事先一无所知的话，Rice和Gates推荐他干什么？ 现在看看货不对路，就“我从来没想过要这份工作了”

---

作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-3-22 21:03

holycow 发表于 2017-3-21 23:41
这篇文章是T-Rex钦点的唯一随行御用媒体的专访，当然是他想放什么话就通过这个专访放出来。

他事先一无 ...

哈哈，那就是我先前就猜到的：他以为真是去当国务卿的，没想到只是个超级传话筒，有点不想干了。Exxon那里已经3亿遣散费拿好了，够用几辈子了，到乡下抱孙子去吧。

---

作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-4-3 04:20


Trump接受金融时报采访。

https://www.ft.com/content/9ae777ea-17ac-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

摘抄我觉得挺有意思的几段。

这一段是关于同中国的贸易。

Are you going to equalise tariffs?

I don’t want to talk about tariffs yet, perhaps the next time we meet. So I don’t want to talk about tariffs yet. But you used the word equalise. That is a very good word because they are not equalised. If you used a word other than tariff, it is not an equal. You know when you talk about, when you talk about currency manipulation, when you talk about devaluations, they are world champions. And our country hasn’t had a clue, they haven’t had a clue. The past administration hasn’t had and many administrations — I don’t want to say only Obama; this has gone on for many years — They haven’t had a clue. But I do.

这一段是关于美国国内政治。

Can you cut a deal on tax reform this year, and what would the terms be?

Well, I don’t want to talk about when and I don’t want to talk about timing. We will have a very massive and very strong tax reform. But I am not going to talk about when . . .

Right now I am working very much on the . . . You know that we didn’t take a vote but with healthcare . . .


Because you didn’t want to lose.

Yeah, I don’t lose. I don’t like to lose. But that wasn’t a definitive day. They are negotiating as we speak. I don’t know if you know. They are negotiating right now. There was no reason to take a vote. I said, ‘Don’t take a vote,’ and we will see what happens. But one way or the other, I promised the people great healthcare. We are going to have great healthcare in this country. Now, it will be in one form or another. It will be a repeal and replace of Obamacare which is the deal that is being negotiated now. And if we don’t get the . . . Freedom Caucus there that would be fine. They’re friends of mine. Many of them have already left, and many of them as you know have already given us their vote. But when you have zero Democrats, zero, you need close to 100 per cent of the Republicans. 

Might you actually try to get some Democrats in future?

Well I will get the Democrats if I go the second way. The second way, which I hate to see, then the Freedom Caucus loses so big and I hate to see that, because . . . our plan is going to be a very good plan. When I say our plan, not phase one just: phase one, two and three added up is a great plan . . . If we don’t get what we want, we will make a deal with the Democrats and we will have in my opinion not as good a form of healthcare, but we are going to have a very good form of healthcare and it will be a bipartisan form of healthcare.

关于tweets和欧盟

When I talk to CEOs in this country . . . half of them are saying ‘yes, this is great, we have confidence coming back, and half of it is ‘God, what happens if he tweets about us and our stock goes down’.

Without the tweets, I wouldn’t be here . . . I have over 100m [followers] between Facebook, Twitter, Instagram. Over 100m. I don’t have to go to the fake media.

Do you regret any of your tweets? 

I don’t regret anything, because there is nothing you can do about it. You know if you issue hundreds of tweets, and every once in a while you have a clinker, that’s not so bad. Now my last tweet, you know the one that you are talking about perhaps, was the one about being in quotes wire tapped, meaning surveilled. Guess what, it is turning out to be true . . . I predicted Brexit.

Do you think other countries will follow the UK out of the EU?

I think Brexit is very good for the UK, it is going to be very good for UK. I would have thought when it happened that more would follow, but I really think the European Union is getting their act together. It could be a very good thing for both.

So it’s an antidote, not a virus?

It is a very interesting thing. If you would have asked me that the day after the election . . . I would have said, ‘Yeah, it will start to come apart’. But they have done a very good job and — I am meeting with them very soon — they have done a very good job in bringing it back together . . . I had a great meeting with Chancellor Merkel. I had a great meeting with her, I really liked her. She said the same thing to me. I spoke to her two days ago. She said the same thing to me, we had a great meeting and the press doesn’t get it. 

金融时报上的读者评论，有的觉得就是非洲那些banana republic靠政变上台的独裁者可能水平也比这高。

---

作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-4-3 05:46

Dracula 发表于 2017-4-2 14:20
Trump接受金融时报采访。

https://www.ft.com/content/9ae777ea-17ac-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

怎么觉得他就是在babbling？毫无实质性内容。在大选时，他说道推翻obamacare、代之以新的健保，it will be so easy，trust me。以前还觉得他可能有一些惊人之计，现在看来可能是空城计。美国惨了。今天Bloomberg登了一篇，Remember When Trump Said He Saved 1,100 Jobs at a Carrier Plant?，挺有意思。这样的事情多的话，他就要开始遭到蓝领的反弹了。

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-4-3 05:55

晨枫 发表于 2017-4-3 05:46
怎么觉得他就是在babbling？毫无实质性内容。在大选时，他说道推翻obamacare、代之以新的健保，it will b ...

我估计他就不知道tariff equalization是怎么一回事（中国是发展中国家，在世贸组织协议下，对美国征收的关税要高于美国对中国的关税），他的那段回答就是胡扯，想蒙混过关，我的学生考试时遇到完全不会的问题时，有时也用这招。

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作者: 小书童    时间: 2017-4-3 10:54
催更，吹更，不要太监，不要挖坑！！！！！

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-4-3 12:12

小书童 发表于 2017-4-2 20:54
催更，吹更，不要太监，不要挖坑！！！！！

请病假啦！

---

作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-4-7 03:07


Steve Bannon Calls Jared Kushner a ‘Cuck’ and ‘Globalist’ Behind His Back
Donald Trump’s two closest aides are fighting “nonstop” and often “face-to-face,” officials say — and it’s even uglier in private.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/art ... ehind-his-back.html

这是其中的几段。

Donald Trump’s chief strategist Stephen Bannon has called the president’s senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner a “cuck” and a “globalist” during a time of high tension between the two top aides, several Trump administration officials told The Daily Beast.

The fighting between Kushner and Bannon has been “nonstop” in recent weeks, according to sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. It’s been an “open secret” that Bannon and Kushner often clash “face-to-face,” according to senior officials.

One official said Bannon has lately complained about Kushner trying to “shiv him and push him out the door” and likened him to a fifth column in the White House.

“[Steve] recently vented to us about Jared being a ‘globalist’ and a ‘cuck’…He actually said ‘cuck,’ as in “cuckservative,’” the administration official told The Daily Beast.

"Steve thinks Jared is worse than a Democrat, basically," another official close to Bannon said. "[Steve] has a very specific vision for what he believes, and what he shares [ideologically] with Trump. And he has for a long time now seen [Jared] as a major obstacle to achieving that."

However, it’s clear that Kushner has been expanding his reach and level of influence in Trump’s core circle of advisers, and that the two men are essentially working against one another as they attempt to keep the president’s ear and affections.

“I love a gunfight,” Bannon told his associates and allies since Wednesday, according to Axios.

The Times also reported that “Bannon’s Svengali-style reputation has chafed on a president who sees himself as the West Wing’s only leading man,” and that “several associates said the president had quietly expressed annoyance over the credit Mr. Bannon had received for setting the agenda—and Mr. Trump was not pleased by the ‘President Bannon’ puppet-master theme promoted by magazines, late-night talk shows and Twitter.”

A Republican source close to Trump told The Daily Beast confirmed this level of insecurity over Bannon’s reputation coming from the president, and mentioned that the president was “irked” after catching a glimpse of a recent cold-open on Saturday Night Live.

(据有的解释，这里的globalist其实coded word，是特指Kushner是犹太人。Bannon属于极右，骨子里对犹太人其实很敌视。Bannon的老家Breitbart的读者评论就说的平白，直接管他叫Jewish Kushner。现在两个人这么水火不容，我估计Bannon在白宫也待不了多久了。对我来说，Kushner比Bannon强，但就目前来说，我还没看出他在能力上有什么出众的地方。)

PS：刚才又看了纽约时报的一篇文章，Bannon被踢出NSC，好像是McMaster向Trump当面提出来的，但是背后是Kushner撑腰支持。

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作者: 得大自在    时间: 2017-4-7 11:54

晨枫 发表于 2017-4-3 12:12
请病假啦！

我还纳闷近期如此之多热点，怎不见晨司机雄论。原来龙体有恙。祝早日康复！

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作者: 小书童    时间: 2017-4-11 05:50
晨大，这个系列断尾了？？？？？？

---

作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-4-13 01:29
Steve Bannon看来在白宫待不了几天了。

Trump won’t definitively say he still backs Bannon

Washington’s rumor mill is working overtime on the fate of presidential aide Steve Bannon, who is said to be at the center of the rampant White House infighting. When I asked the president Tuesday afternoon if he still has confidence in Bannon, who took over the campaign in mid-August, I did not get a definitive yes.

“I like Steve, but you have to remember he was not involved in my campaign until very late,” Trump said. “I had already beaten all the senators and all the governors, and I didn’t know Steve. I’m my own strategist and it wasn’t like I was going to change strategies because I was facing crooked Hillary.”

He ended by saying, “Steve is a good guy, but I told them to straighten it out or I will.”

http://nypost.com/2017/04/11/tru ... still-backs-bannon/

我还看到别的消息，Trump现在正在找Reince Priebus的继任，他应该也干不了几天了。未来的白宫会被Jared Kushner和Ivanka夫妇完全掌控。

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作者: holycow    时间: 2017-4-13 07:58

Dracula 发表于 2017-4-12 09:29
Steve Bannon看来在白宫待不了几天了。

Trump won’t definitively say he still backs Bannon

“I do my own policy, I’m my own strategist. I don’t have — I have people that I respect, I have people that I listen to, I have many people and then I make the decision. I’m just saying that [Mr. Bannon] is a guy who works for me, he’s a good guy. But, I make my own decision. I don’t have people making decisions.”

-- WSJ interview today


I'm my own strategist，那chief strategist就没有必要存在了...

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-4-13 17:36

holycow 发表于 2017-4-13 07:58
-- WSJ interview today

那篇文章里，Trump还说中国不是currency manipulator，支持Export–Import Bank ，支持北约，考虑提名Yellen继续担任美联储主席。在外交政策上也不提America First了，而是要建设一个更美好的世界。他现在转向也有点太快了，和希拉里的政策立场相差其实已经不多了，我都觉得有些不适应。只是不知道这能持续多久，几个月后会不会又要变次脸。而且我看他接受采访，初尝下令使用武力的权力很有些high，特别的兴奋。现在国内政策方面他非常不顺利，不仅是医疗改革，税制改革现在看来也很可能搞不成。在军事上他尝到甜头以后，过几天心血来潮，把美国带进战争，我觉得可能性也是有的。

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-4-17 13:19

Dracula 发表于 2017-4-6 13:07
Steve Bannon Calls Jared Kushner a ‘Cuck’ and ‘Globalist’ Behind His Back
Donald Trump’s two cl ...

相比起来，Kushner算是produce的，比如美中关系，Bannon到现在为止produce的都是负资产，尤其是禁穆令，在关键的医保改革上也没有拿出可操作的东西来，留他何用？

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作者: 晨枫    时间: 2017-4-17 13:20

Dracula 发表于 2017-4-12 11:29
Steve Bannon看来在白宫待不了几天了。

Trump won’t definitively say he still backs Bannon

为什么Reince Priebus也失宠了呢，因为禁穆令和医改失败？

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-4-19 23:13
刚看到的，挺不错的一篇文章。现在把Trump和Carter相类比，都已经变得有点cliched 了。

Donald Trump is heading for a do-nothing presidency

http://nordic.businessinsider.co ... 017-4?r=US&IR=T



"George W. Bush, but racist." That's what Jonathan Chait of New York Magazine says President Donald Trump is turning into, as he abandons some of his more idiosyncratic campaign positions and starts listening to Republican Party regulars who favor foreign wars and tax cuts for the rich.

This comparison is unfair - to George W. Bush. Bush accomplished things, whether you liked those things or not.

I agree with Chait that Trump is failing to promote and advance a policy agenda of his own. But the likely result is that he will do very little, not that he will achieve what a conventional Republican president would achieve, if given a Republican Congress to work with.

I think Trump is so inept, he will be unable to get a major tax cut out of a Republican Congress. And I certainly hope I am right that he is too lazy to start a ground war.

If Trump does not get us all killed, I expect his presidency will look surprisingly unimportant in retrospect.

Trump's weaknesses will usually lead to nothing happening

Most policy issues present Trump with three possible policy actions: A standard Republican thing, a quirky "Trumpist" thing, or nothing. In most areas, the smart money should be on "nothing."

In support of his Trump-as-Bush hypothesis, Chait writes:

"Trump's pledge not to cut Medicaid while replacing Obamacare with a terrific plan that would include 'insurance for everybody,' with better coverage than they have now, turned into endorsement of a conventional Republican plan that would cut hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicaid and throw tens of millions of people off their insurance."

Yes, but remember where this landed: With Congress passing nothing. The implosion of the AHCA has left Trump with Barack Obama's healthcare policy, not George Bush's. Trump healthcare policy change: nothing.

Let's look where else this president is going nowhere fast.

Taxes

Since the president can't decide whether to admit healthcare reform is dead or not, tax reform is now supposed to get pushed back to make space for another doomed try on healthcare, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin admitting the administration's August goal for tax changes will be missed.

Republicans in Congress still have no agreement for a vision on taxes, and the White House doesn't have a plan of its own. Trump has mused about the possibility of working with Democrats on taxes, but they'll be reluctant to hand him any victories and have settled on the line that they can't change the tax code until we've seen Trump's tax returns, because otherwise we won't know if the deal is designed to benefit him.

Tax reform dies for all sorts of good reasons, and this administration looks even less organized on the issue than those who have failed to reform the tax code in the past. My bet on a Trump tax legacy: nothing.

The budget

Last month, the White House circulated a Trumpist "skinny budget," with ideas like sharply cutting spending on the National Institutes of Health and the State Department to fund military expansion and construction of a border wall. Congress is preparing to summarily ignore this budget.

But they're not going to take what you might call a "conventional Republican" approach either, like, say, cutting food stamps to fund military expansion.

The spending bill to keep the government open past April 28 will need to get 60 votes in the Senate, which means it will need Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's approval, which likely means an increase in domestic spending to go along with any increase in military spending, certainty for threatened Obamacare subsidies, and little-to-no money for a border wall.

Of course, Trump could veto such a spending bill, but Axios reports the White House is in "no mood" for the government shutdown that would ensue. Likely federal spending outlook: nothing terribly different than if Hillary Clinton had won.

Trade

Trump is backing off his heated trade rhetoric, says China is not a currency manipulator, and even says he's willing to let China off easy on trade if they're helpful with North Korea. A Trumpist remaking of American trade policy is looking less and less likely.

But what would a "conventional Republican" trade policy look like? Probably the pursuit of multilateral trade agreements that Republican presidents used to favor until they became associated with Obama.

Do you really think Trump will negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU? It seems a lot more likely to me that he will do nothing.

Foreign policy

In his first 100 days, Trump has softened toward China, somewhat hardened toward Russia, flip-flopped on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and re-endorsed NATO. These shifts do as much to put him in line with Obama as with Bush.

It's possible that won't stay true. Trump's national security adviser is, according to a report from Eli Lake at Bloomberg, developing a plan for tens of thousands of ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria.

As Chait writes, such an invasion would constitute a remarkable, Bush-like turn toward neoconservatism, if Trump were actually to pursue it. But I am skeptical that he will do so.

Trump has, so far, not demonstrated the attention span for a ground war. A man who figured out it was best to rent his name and let other people deal with the messy business of actual high-rise construction will probably get the logic of launching the occasional airstrike and leaving most of the ground fighting to proxy forces.

I might be wrong - and future external events could push Trump into a ground war somewhere, just as they could with any other president. But so far, the president's main foreign policy departures from Obama are (1) offending a bunch of foreign leaders, and (2) launching one airstrike against Assad. This looks more like "nothing" than "Neocon" to me.

The limited areas where Trump means change

Trump's appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court definitely mattered. This appointment was conventional, but not a surprise or a breach of any Trumpist promises. Trump issued an explicit list of whom he might appoint to the court before being elected, and the list was vetted to please conventional conservatives.

With Trump, it's always a good idea to get it in writing, and they did.

The other obvious place where Trump already matters is immigration. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has clearly stepped up enforcement, and some people who would have been held harmless under Obama are being deported.

Is this a "conventional Republican" policy course? Mitt Romney probably would have done something similar, but there are a lot of establishment Republicans in Washington who would prefer a more lax immigration policy.

Trump's Justice Department may have significant effects, by changing its emphasis in overseeing police departments and voting rights. The latter moves will be in line with "conventional Republicanism"; the former ones run counter to incipient Republican enthusiasm for criminal justice reform, which Trump and his attorney general reject.

Trump's other significant policy accomplishments so far consist mostly of laws he has signed under the Congressional Review Act. This law allows Congress to overturn, by simple majority, regulations issued late in a departing president's administration.

These laws will affect the cleanliness of streams near coal mines, and will allow Internet Service Providers to sell user data - though, from the breathless reaction, you might not realize they're reversing regulations that either were not yet effective or only recently became effective. That is, all these fearsome laws have done is to restore the Obama-era status quo, circa 2015.

Bigger reversals of Obama-era policies that Trump might hope to do with his executive power - like neuter Dodd-Frank and the Clean Power Plan - will require him to get past bureaucratic and judicial roadblocks. I wouldn't bet on Trump succeeding bigly in these areas soon.

A presidency does not have to be important

The AHCA failed for a fundamental reason: Like a lot of conventional Republican ideas, it was very unpopular.

The thumbnail version of the AHCA was that it cut Medicaid to pay for tax cuts for the rich. It would take a president with a lot of political capital, political skill, and ideological commitment to shove something like that through Congress.

Trump has none of those three, a problem that will repeat with other unpopular, conventional Republican policies he might try to pass.

Trump's lack of his own unique policy vision, plus his lack of the resources and conviction he would need to impose a conventional Republican policy vision, will add up to him doing little beyond what he must do to keep the lights on: Sign spending bills, raise the debt limit, respond to foreign crises, appear at the Easter Egg Roll.

Not all presidents have a major legacy. Warren Harding wasn't important; neither was Gerald Ford or Jimmy Carter.

I remain worried that a foreign crisis will be foisted on Trump, and that his mishandling of it will get us all killed in a nuclear war. If that happens, his presidency will be very important.

But if it doesn't, I don't see Trump posting a lot of "wins." I see him making Carter look dynamic and accomplished by comparison.

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作者: 糊里糊涂    时间: 2017-4-20 00:36

晨枫 发表于 2017-4-17 13:20
为什么Reince Priebus也失宠了呢，因为禁穆令和医改失败？

老川当总统，其实是真的黄袍加身，不得不当，他本人应该根本没这个计划，来选举就是攒人气的。

当到现在，他应该明白自己什么都干不成，还得担心会不会被人算计，秋后算账什么的。现在很明显，他回到正道了，就是和过往历史人物一样，只信亲人，但是儿子不中用，就信女儿女婿，现在就是要让女儿女婿大胆地干，最好能混上参议员，这样以后才好保他，保家族利益。所以现在明显女婿的权力很大，老川也不怎么干其他的了，只要谁给女婿挡路，就怼谁。

老川周边的人也看明白了，都开始自己找出路，不会再热心干事了。

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作者: 小书童    时间: 2017-4-20 00:53

晨枫 发表于 2017-3-22 21:03
哈哈，那就是我先前就猜到的：他以为真是去当国务卿的，没想到只是个超级传话筒，有点不想干了。Exxon那 ...

晨大或圣牛大能不能给解释一下美国10艘航母怎么仅能动用2-3艘是什么鬼？！

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作者: Dracula    时间: 2017-4-20 00:59

晨枫 发表于 2017-4-17 13:20
为什么Reince Priebus也失宠了呢，因为禁穆令和医改失败？

不管是Steve Bannon那派还是反对Bannon的，都同意Reince Priebus能力不行。Trump政府要想要有起色的话，需要换Chief of Staff，像当年克林顿政府在6个月后，换用Leon Panetta。但是现在白宫真正掌握实权的是Jared Kushner。要想找一个能力又很强，Kushner又控制的了，甘心听他指挥的人不是那么容易。

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作者: 老财迷    时间: 2017-4-20 09:11

小书童 发表于 2017-4-20 00:53
晨大或圣牛大能不能给解释一下美国10艘航母怎么仅能动用2-3艘是什么鬼？！ ...

大体是：一艘航母 1/3时间维护保养（舰员休息）、1/3时间训练、1/3时间部署

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作者: 五月    时间: 2017-4-21 01:29

晨枫 发表于 2017-4-3 05:46
怎么觉得他就是在babbling？毫无实质性内容。在大选时，他说道推翻obamacare、代之以新的健保，it will b ...

我早说了，开始大家以为川总是网红脸+霸道总裁的脑子，现在发现川总其实是网红脑子+霸道总裁的脸

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