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标题: WHO的布鲁斯·艾尔沃德接受美国NPR国家公共广播电台的访问 [打印本页]

作者: 小赵 时间: 2020-3-10 09:50
标题: WHO的布鲁斯·艾尔沃德接受美国NPR国家公共广播电台的访问
在美国新冠肺炎开始流行了，我们附近几个镇子都出现了确诊的例子。但感觉政府的反应和力度都还不行。州长居然现在去度假了。而且测试阳性的标准特别严格。我的家庭医生直接来了封信，说有流感症状就不要去他们那了，轻的不用治，重的他们那儿也没法确诊和治疗。

在NPR（美国国家公共广播电台）上听到了世界卫生组织助理总干事布鲁斯·艾尔沃德访问，他是挺中国政府的措施得，对美国的应对是有看法的（虽然没有好意思明说）。加黑的是重点。其实听链接中的音频，可以更强烈的感到这几点

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/08/813401722/who-official-says-coronavirus-containment-remains-possible

WHO Official Says Coronavirus Containment Remains Possible

Even as the number of new coronavirus infections continues to spiral upward in countries around the world, a top global health expert says it's not too late to contain the virus.

"As long as you have these discrete outbreaks ... there is the opportunity to control them — to get on top of these and contain them and prevent a lot of disease and ultimately death," says Dr. Bruce Aylward, a senior adviser to the director-general of the World Health Organization. "That's the big message we saw in China — and one of the big surprises."

Aylward led a fact-finding trip in China in February on behalf of the World Health Organization. He says the experience there altered his view of what can be done.

"They actually changed the course of a respiratory-borne outbreak without a vaccine, which was extraordinary," says Aylward. The number of daily new cases in China went from around 2,000 just a few weeks ago to less than 100 in recent days.

But Aylward says other countries may be taking the wrong lesson from China by attributing its success to the government's unprecedented restrictions on daily life in several cities, most famously Wuhan, the city of 11 million people where the outbreak began. There, the government has suspended transportation out of the city and for the most part required people to remain in their homes — with only brief forays permitted to stock up on food and other supplies.

"China has 31 provinces, thousands of cities," notes Aylward. "And it was only a few cities where they took those draconian measures. In the vast majority of them, they ... really went back to fundamentals of public health."

These included ensuring that there was enough testing capacity to quickly identify cases, isolating infected patients, tracing anyone who had contact with them and, when necessary, placing those contacts in quarantine facilities so they wouldn't get infected by the sick person or spread the disease further. Also, in places where clusters of cases were emerging, authorities prohibited mass gatherings.

"That's how they stopped it in the areas with over 1.3 billion people," says Aylward. "We spent two weeks on the ground looking at the data. Every other province [beyond Hubei, where Wuhan is located] had hundreds, if not thousands, of cases, not unlike the situation you see in European countries or in the U.S. These are massive provinces with tens and even a hundred million people in them."

In short, Aylward says, "it wasn't a lockdown everywhere. That's the wrong way to portray China's approach to the disease. And that's leading to some fundamental confusion and failure to do the right things."

Is Italy's decision to impose severe lockdown-like restrictions in vast swaths of its northern region the right approach?

Aylward says he's reluctant to comment specifically on Italy's decision because he's not familiar with the epidemiological data there. "One of the challenges with Italy right now is just the amount of data," he says. "They're just running so fast to catch up with the cases, it's difficult to understand what's driving the transmission. Because that's what you want to use to drive your strategy — what you cancel, what you suspend, etc. It should be driven by the way the virus is moving."

Still, Aylward says, there is indeed a threshold where it becomes necessary to impose major restrictions on movement. That happens when there is substantial "community-level transmission, where it's spreading in [so] many, many different environments, you can't even differentiate clusters." That's what occurred in Wuhan.

But even in those instances, says Aylward, it's crucial not to rely on restrictions of movement as the sole remedy. Public health authorities need to be prepared for a rebound in cases when movement restrictions are lifted and cases start to tick up again.

"When I talk to governors of provinces [in China], mayors of cities and ask them, 'What are you doing now?' — they say, 'We're building beds for isolation, and we're buying ventilators to help take care of the very sick,' " Aylward says. "And the interesting thing is ... you're seeing falling disease in these massive provinces in China, and they're building capacity."

Meanwhile, he adds, in Europe and the United States, authorities are still struggling to manage far fewer cases. "I mean, it's a completely different willingness to properly prepare."

How have delays in coronavirus testing affected the ability of the United States to get ready?

"Well, it complicates your response," says Aylward. But he says, "We are where we are. ... The important thing is looking forward. You've seen [this disease's] potential to spread for weeks, and you need plans to be able to isolate dozens, if not hundreds, of people, to be able to trace ... many, many contacts. And you have to be able to test."

Even if it's not possible to fully stop the spread, he says, "you can still slow it down and protect the vulnerable populations and limit the amount of damage that this disease can do."

作者: drknight 时间: 2020-3-10 10:02

这是纽约时报对艾尔沃德的采访
疫中访问中国，WHO专家组组长看到了什么？

作者: 无言 时间: 2020-3-10 10:08
加拿大人

作者: 龙血树 时间: 2020-3-10 11:23
NPR比纽约时报评价更加正面，敢于明白赞赏中国。

作者: 常挨揍 时间: 2020-3-10 19:27

无言发表于 2020-3-10 10:08
加拿大人

还是医生

作者: 王不留 时间: 2020-3-10 19:48

龙血树发表于 2020-3-10 11:23
NPR比纽约时报评价更加正面，敢于明白赞赏中国。

我就几乎没听到过。。。从来都是communist party, communists controlled,...

作者: 小赵 时间: 2020-3-10 20:39
是的。听访问原声就可以知道。主持人不断地插话，诘问。。。

只是文字版本里感觉不到罢了。

其实NPR作为左派媒体本身从来都是倾向非常明显的，反川普，这次新冠肺炎对中国也没有什么好话，不过他们会访问这个挺中国政府的，还让他说了这么多，我有点意外。以前他们请的约翰霍普金斯的教授是一句好话都没有，只要是中国政府做的，无论效果怎样，一律都是错的，反人权的。。。

作者: 龙驹坝 时间: 2020-3-10 23:52

小赵发表于 2020-3-10 20:39
是的。听访问原声就可以知道。主持人不断地插话，诘问。。。

只是文字版本里感觉不到罢了。

enough testing capacity to quickly identify cases
美国没有，加拿大目前还有
isolating infected patients
   自由社会，尽力吧。反正大多华人社区这次挺自觉的。
tracing anyone who had contact with them
   社区传染起来以后就难了。还是自由社会的锅
and, when necessary, placing those contacts in quarantine facilities so they wouldn't get infected by the sick person or spread the disease further.
   目前为止，除了中国，哪个国家能做到？
Also, in places where clusters of cases were emerging, authorities prohibited mass gatherings
   这个倒是最容易的一个。

作者: 常挨揍 时间: 2020-3-11 00:21

龙驹坝发表于 2020-3-10 23:52
enough testing capacity to quickly identify cases
美国没有，加拿大目前还有
isolating infected ...

tracing anyone who had contact with them

这个，韩国直接调了邪教某人的手机GPS路径。
大老美只是想不想而不是能不能的问题。
如果导致可能又跑几个斯诺登的话，老美肯定不想。

作者: 常挨揍 时间: 2020-3-11 00:24

龙驹坝发表于 2020-3-10 23:52
enough testing capacity to quickly identify cases
美国没有，加拿大目前还有
isolating infected ...

isolating infected patients

所以需要制造一滴滴恐慌

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