当然,中国自个掉坑,让俺赶上怪不到偶呀。偶印印乌龟爬啦。{:190:} Dracula 发表于 2017-9-6 18:06
把recession 翻译成经济崩溃不适合。NBER的定义是连续两个季度GDP降低,比如2001年美国网络泡沫破裂后有 ...
另外经常项目(也就是贸易)下的顺差,自动等于资本项目下的逆差,这是会计上的恒等式,永远是对的,和经济理论无关。
这个说法是不对的。中国历年保持经常项目和资本项目的双顺差。下面是外汇管理局的数据:
单位:亿美元
年份 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
经常1,324 2,318 3,532 4,206 2,433 2,378 1,361 2,154 1,482 2,197
资本 953 493 942 401 1,985 2,869 2,655 -318 3,461 382
这段话后面的解释不符合金融学的原理和定义。
贸易顺差的定义就是出口多于进口。影响它的因素包括汇率,经济结构,产业结构,结算货币美元的币值变化,等等
资本顺差的定义就是外币购买本币(资本流入)大于本币购买外币(资本流出)。
贸易项目的余额和资本项目的余额完全没有会计学上的相关。
会计学的恒等式是资产=负债+所有者权益 印度南部有一大票人在中东打工,IT或者劳工,在美加也有大票软件外劳,所以每年的侨汇也是天文数字,到底多少这个不清楚 五月 发表于 2017-9-6 19:17
这个说法是不对的。中国历年保持经常项目和资本项目的双顺差。下面是外汇管理局的数据:
单位:亿美 ...
你应该找本经济学教科书学习一下。
这是一个不错的英文的解释。中文的解释网上应该也能搜到。
Trade Deficit Is Really A Capital Surplus
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1832
The U.S. is on track for a record capital surplus! Sounds great, right? Now consider this: The U.S. is on track for a record trade deficit! It doesn’t sound so good, but the two mean pretty much the same thing. Whichever way you choose to say it, neither statement should be a cause for celebration or worry.
Newspapers around the country recently reported the Commerce Department’s new trade numbers. In July, the U.S. recorded a record $68 billion trade deficit, so we’re on track to surpass last year’s total trade deficit of nearly $717 billion.
News stories attributed the rising trade deficit to increased prices for foreign oil and other imports. But they neglected to ask fundamental questions about what a trade deficit really means and whether it is necessarily harmful.
The balance of payments accounting system has two major accounts: the current account and the capital account. The current account mainly measures trade in goods and services. The capital account mainly measures trade in assets. A trade deficit refers only to the current account balance.
Balance of payments accounting is done with a double-entry system of debits and credits. Each transaction involves both a debit and a credit.
Put simply, if you buy something from a foreigner, you must pay him—a debit is entered. Then the foreigner must somehow spend or save your payment—a credit is entered. When all credits and debits are added up, the entire accounting system must balance: The current account balance plus the capital account balance must sum to zero. Hence, a current account (trade) deficit implies a capital account surplus.
A trade deficit reflects the fact that we buy more goods and services from abroad than we sell to foreigners. Foreigners take the earnings they receive from our spending (minus the goods and services they buy from us) and invest that sum in the U.S. The U.S. has a wealth of investment opportunities, but we have a low rate of domestic saving, so lots of investments in the U.S. wouldn’t get funded if foreigners weren’t willing to supply us with their savings.
As long as our country remains a good place to invest and we have a low saving rate, foreigners are going to invest in the U.S. more on net than we invest overseas. That will generate a capital account surplus and the resulting trade deficit. This is a good thing.
When foreign investment increases our productive capacity, our economy can grow faster, enabling Americans to pay off any debts incurred. What about consumer debt? What if we borrow from foreigners to finance our consumption purchases? Is that part of the trade deficit bad? No. Every transaction summarized in the balance of payments is the result of individual transactions in which both parties to the exchange expected to benefit.
When a U.S. citizen finances a new car purchase, he does so because he values having the car now more than the amount he will have to pay back later. Does the outcome depend on whether he bought a Lincoln or a BMW? Buying a domestic Lincoln wouldn’t affect our trade deficit, but buying a foreign BMW would.
But whether the payment is to a foreigner or to a fellow citizen, the customer’s purchase still indicates that he deems himself better off from the transaction.
Sometimes the twin deficits—budget and trade—move in the same direction. When a government issues a lot of debt and there aren’t enough domestic savers to buy it up, a budget deficit will contribute to a trade deficit. That’s simply because the foreign purchase of bonds is recorded in the capital account.
After governments issue too much debt, they often harm their economy by inflating the money supply or raising tax rates to try to pay their debts. However, these problems stem from the budget deficit and the accumulated debt—not who finances the debt. In this way, a trade deficit can be a symptom of fiscal problems, but the trade deficit isn’t the problem per se. It’s the budget deficit that’s the problem.
Ultimately, most of the trade deficit results from voluntary market transactions, where both parties benefit from the sale of goods and assets. Adding up every transaction doesn’t suddenly eliminate the gains from trade just because U.S. citizens bought more goods and services than they sold.
五月 发表于 2017-9-5 22:15
印度靠资本项下的顺差来支付,也就是靠”引进外资“来支付。
引进的外资一部分是实业投资,一部分是金 ...
霍霍,这个可是不靠谱啊。这么玩对于第三世界国家可是要出大事的。 2000年的时候经济软着陆,2003年非典???TG一路走来经历多少的腥风血雨啊.........
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