关于Steve Bannon被开简单说几句
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-8-19 11:49 编辑Steve Bannon被Trump开掉的消息传开后，被liuqing098点名提到，我就简单说几句。
https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/6fc9e30178509f95db190c2ae2619bf2bc5393b6/c=452-15-1901-1105&r=x404&c=534x401/local/-/media/2017/08/16/USATODAY/USATODAY/636385086057359971-GTY-691277780.jpg
1. Steve Bannon失去Trump的信任，以致现在被开的最重要原因并不是他和Trump的政治观点上发生了严重分歧，或者是白宫内各个派系之间的内斗（尽管这是一个重要因素）。而是去年大选Trump令绝大多数人跌破眼镜意外获胜后，媒体把不少的功劳归在Bannon身上，认为他的alt-right的政治观点尽管让人厌恶，但他本人确实是有疯狂的天才，作为军师在背后运筹帷幄是Trump获胜的重要因素。Trump正式就任后的前几个星期，白宫的一系列雷厉风行的举措，声势很大（当然现在回头来看没有多少雨点），基本上按照Bannon的nationalist的agenda来的，尤其是穆斯林禁令。好多人觉得这都是Bannon在背后指挥，不少媒体暗示Trump就是个傀儡，背后实际指挥的是Bannon（最有名的是Saturday Night Live里的sketch），乃至Bannon本人都上了时代周刊的封面。Trump这个人性格里最重要的一点就是Narcissism。他自己永远都是最伟大、最光荣、最正确。几个月以前曾经公开说过，他在总统这个位子上已经取得的成就，除了林肯以外，超过美国历史上其他任何总统，包括华盛顿罗斯福等。Trump这一生中干成的最惊天动地的事情当然就是去年总统大选获胜，这里的功劳无论如何不能跟任何人分，完全都是他一个人的。现在媒体抬高Bannon的作用，让Trump极其的不爽，乃至非常愤怒。那以后就已经对Bannon开始很疏远。白宫内各个派别争夺权力极其激烈，他们也都知道这点。强调Bannon作用比较出名的有一本Bloomberg记者Joshua Green写的书Devil's Bargain。Bannon在白宫的对手象Jared Kushner等在跟Trump谈话的时候都会时不时的似乎无意的提到它，让Trump对Bannon的观感越来越差。Trump多次在接受记者采访的时候主动反复提到，去年大选获胜的功劳完全是他一个人的，他才是自己真正的chief strategist（Bannon在白宫的头衔），Bannon没起任何作用。前天还有一条报道说，Trump对他的亲信说"That fucking Steve Bannon taking credit for my election"。对Bannon都已经接近深恶痛绝了，因此Bannon现在被开掉也算是在意料之中吧。
2. Bannon过去几个月在白宫的影响已经是越来越小。几个星期以前就传出不少谣言说他要离开。包括Anthony Scaramucci短暂但是非常耀眼在白宫的那10天里，也用18+的语言重炮攻击过Bannon。Bannon很可能也知道自己是待不长，或者就不想干了。几天前主动找一个左派的杂志谈自己对政治局势以及经济政策的看法。最犯忌讳的是他承认美国对朝鲜不可能有任何实际的军事行动方案。他那些话本身是挺有道理，我也同意。但是Trump对朝鲜的言论和政策是Fire and Fury， Locked and Loaded，威胁对朝鲜进行军事打击。Bannon这些话等于是给Trump的朝鲜政策拆台。要是其他的白宫人员这个干的话也都属于fireable offense。我看到的评论认为Bannon说这些话前应该知道这一点。他这么干就是在白宫受气受够了。这么干算是逼着Trump 开掉自己，也算是临走前给了Trump一击。
3. Trump上任后的7个月有一些政策上是和Bannon的主张一致。象穆斯林禁令，修墙等。但是在经济政策上却并没有听Bannon的。大规模基础设施建设，到现在也还就是一句空话。我估计明年也不会实现。同中国贸易战，把制造业的工作抢回美国，Trump大选的时候口号喊得很凶，说上任第一天就要将中国列为currency manipulator。但是现在都不提了。Bannon在同American Prospects采访的时候，字里行间中也对这挺不满。我估计Bannon离开对Trump政府的政策不会有多大的影响。从这个星期Trump对Charlottesville极右游行的反应来看，那些White Nationalist的言论观点，Trump本人就是信的，并不是Bannon在背后指挥。
4. Bannon那些White Nationalist的意识形态和agenda尽管我挺厌恶，不过我也承认他在战略的层次上还是有些想法的。从穆斯林禁令混乱实施那件事来看，Bannon这个人实际办事的能力不怎么样。但是我觉得他还是有些才能的。现在白宫剩下的人Trump的亲信里，Ivanka, Kushner, Steven Miller，Kellyanne Conway这些人的能力其实还不如Bannon。而且象我在以前那个帖子里说的那样，看到Trump对司法部部长Jeff Sessions的对待，我很难想象能力强的现在会有人愿意加入白宫为Trump卖命。因此如果Jared Kushner的影响随着Bannon被开而增加的话，Trump政府的competence可能会更差。而且象现在的chief of staff， John Kelly也要小心，他如果干得不错，得到媒体赞赏抢了Trump的风头，可能马上也会遭到Bannon的命运。最近几个星期，Trump政府内部的混乱越来越厉害。Trump能熬到今年年底，白宫会变为什么样子，我觉得都不好想象。
5. Steve Bannon离开白宫后，现在回到了Breitbart。Breitbart在右翼尤其是极右那儿还是挺有影响的。Bannon熟知白宫的内幕，他会不会对Trump进行报复，现在还不清楚。如果这发生的话，Trump对他base的控制可能也会严重松动。他被弹劾的可能性也会变得越来越大。
酒庄
搬弄：“尼玛你以为是你自己选上的？没有老子指点，你丫现在还在找钱还工地民工欠薪呢。老子再找个候选人，下次大选怼死你！咦，我手里攥着Breitbart，一呼万应，我他妈的干嘛不自己参选呢？”
也许搬弄同志回去后会另推一个候选人出来怼川总。那就太太太好玩了。 trump不是明主啊 在Trump内阁里，最有见识的还就是Bannon，Kushner也不错，但他不大暴露自己的主张，还摸不透到底是什么政策主张。在竞选时期，甚至入住白宫后，Trump的有见识的政策主张基本上都来自Bannon。在“感情”上，Trump和Bannon是一致的；但在理性上，Trump根本没有Bannon的智商。Bannon离开白宫，就怕Trump只会shoot from the hip，闯更大的祸。美国政府现在还是auto pilot，就怕bad captain把船开到触礁了。 谢谢解答。
但是还有一问，“Trump大选的时候口号喊得很凶，说上任第一天就要将中国列为currency manipulator。”现在不是搬超级301条款了？ liuqing098 发表于 2017-8-18 19:22
谢谢解答。
但是还有一问，“Trump大选的时候口号喊得很凶，说上任第一天就要将中国列为currency manipulat ...
我的理解是班农认为跟中国的经济战是第一位的，而老床是用这个当做交换朝鲜的筹码。所以班农无所顾忌的时候才会放话说拿朝鲜已经没辙了，好好跟中国开经济战才是正经。 晨枫 发表于 2017-8-18 19:21
在Trump内阁里，最有见识的还就是Bannon，Kushner也不错，但他不大暴露自己的主张，还摸不透到底是什么政策 ...
我有感觉这次debt ceiling 药丸 holycow 发表于 2017-8-18 21:32
我有感觉这次debt ceiling 药丸
这才是点到要点了！还有两个月，这debt ceiling要是不能解决，这特家铺可能就要开不下去了。 holycow 发表于 2017-8-18 21:30
我的理解是班农认为跟中国的经济战是第一位的，而老床是用这个当做交换朝鲜的筹码。所以班农无所顾忌的时 ...
从美国利益来说，Bannon是对的。Trump的生意经实际上在国家层面是不管用的，尤其是对中国这样的实际超级大国来说。 晨枫 发表于 2017-8-18 19:36
这才是点到要点了！还有两个月，这debt ceiling要是不能解决，这特家铺可能就要开不下去了。 ...
一个月{:191:} 晨枫 发表于 2017-8-19 11:21
在Trump内阁里，最有见识的还就是Bannon，Kushner也不错，但他不大暴露自己的主张，还摸不透到底是什么政策 ...
Kushner本来是民主党，在好多问题象同性恋等社会问题上属于自由派。他比Bannon更接近于主流，从这个角度来看是比Bannon要好。但是我觉得他的实际能力也不怎么样。就经商来说，他的房地产公司现在面临的问题很大。就实际政治来说他也没有任何经验。就他给Trump出的主意，象开掉Comey（Bannon是反对），现在看很不怎么样，Trump这几个月的麻烦主要都是从那个决定来的。
Kushner和同他的亲信Gary Cohn反对对中国进行贸易战（我怀疑Kushner和同中国包括中国政府的商业关系不干不净）。他在白宫的影响增加的话，对中国是好事。
liuqing098 发表于 2017-8-19 11:22
谢谢解答。
但是还有一问，“Trump大选的时候口号喊得很凶，说上任第一天就要将中国列为currency manipulat ...
这个主要是给中国施加压力，让中国对朝鲜施加压力。朝鲜宣布不会在关岛附近海域试射导弹，也算是给Trump以及中国面子了。这事我估计对中美贸易不会有多大实际影响。
Dracula 发表于 2017-8-18 21:41
Kushner本来是民主党，在好多问题象同性恋等社会问题上属于自由派。他比Bannon更接近于主流，从这个角度 ...
Kushner好像在运作方面更加擅长，像撮合特朗普与中国的关系，但在大政上还不清楚他到底是什么路子。俄罗斯问题是戳到痛处了，可能是慌不择路，开掉Comey是很笨的做法。 晨枫 发表于 2017-8-18 19:39
从美国利益来说，Bannon是对的。Trump的生意经实际上在国家层面是不管用的，尤其是对中国这样的实际超级 ...
班农在那次无所顾忌的访谈里还说如果可能，就和中国做个trade: 朝鲜冻结核计划换取美军撤出朝鲜半岛。这人才能还是有的。 本帖最后由 晨枫 于 2017-8-18 22:02 编辑
holycow 发表于 2017-8-18 21:56
班农在那次无所顾忌的访谈里还说如果可能，就和中国做个trade: 朝鲜冻结核计划换取美军撤出朝鲜半岛。这 ...
从战略角度来看，这对美国是有利的。在韩国驻军本来就是人质，真要在东北亚兴风作浪，以日本为基地更加方便。但要是换取朝鲜冻结核计划，甚至促成韩国主导的半岛统一，对美国是有利的，尽管倒向中国的风险也不小。他这个trade是比特朗普那个用贸易与朝鲜做trade要靠谱多了。 liuqing098 发表于 2017-8-19 11:22
谢谢解答。
但是还有一问，“Trump大选的时候口号喊得很凶，说上任第一天就要将中国列为currency manipulat ...
对付超级301我天朝是老司机了。以前没有加入世贸的时候，天朝几乎年年要对付一次，怎么对应都66的了，而美帝那边怎么被对应也都玩得66.
川总动用超级301而不是汇率操纵国，本身就是不想打贸易战的意思。
川普上任200天内做的所有事情，真正能出成果的只有跟习大会面谈的那几条东西。时间长了，川总会走投无路的。当川总病急乱投医的时候，会怀念维尼熊迷之微笑的。 晨枫 发表于 2017-8-19 12:00
从战略角度来看，这对美国是有利的。在韩国驻军本来就是人质，真要在东北亚兴风作浪，以日本为基地更加方 ...
问题是显然中国对北朝鲜失去了控制。这个deal即使再美丽也做不了。 本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2017-8-19 00:07 编辑
holycow 发表于 2017-8-18 22:56
班农在那次无所顾忌的访谈里还说如果可能，就和中国做个trade: 朝鲜冻结核计划换取美军撤出朝鲜半岛。这 ...
这个trade没戏。除非签终战协议，美朝建交，实现金大胖的盘算，还有一线可能终结朝鲜核计划。不是南棒叫得凶，武力打击北棒对美国又能怎样。也就中俄会发点噪声。欧洲那些国家压根不会反对。 holycow 发表于 2017-8-19 11:56
班农在那次无所顾忌的访谈里还说如果可能，就和中国做个trade: 朝鲜冻结核计划换取美军撤出朝鲜半岛。这 ...
美国抽身，这倒是解决半岛问题的根本办法 刚看到的，Bannon下来之后接受采访。
Bannon: 'The Trump Presidency That We Fought For, and Won, Is Over.'
http://www.weeklystandard.com/bannon-the-trump-presidency-that-we-fought-for-and-won-is-over./article/2009355
With the departure from the White House of strategist Stephen K. Bannon, who helped shape the so-called nationalist-populist program embraced by Donald Trump in his unlikely path to election, a new phase of the Trump presidency begins. Given Trump’s nature, what comes next will hardly be conventional, but it may well be less willfully disruptive—which, to Bannon, had been the point of winning the White House.
“The Trump presidency that we fought for, and won, is over,” Bannon said Friday, shortly after confirming his departure. “We still have a huge movement, and we will make something of this Trump presidency. But that presidency is over. It’ll be something else. And there’ll be all kinds of fights, and there’ll be good days and bad days, but that presidency is over.”
Bannon says that he will return to the helm of Breitbart, the rambunctious right-wing media enterprise he ran until joining the Trump campaign as chief executive last August. At the time, the campaign was at its nadir, and Trump was trailing Hillary Clinton in the polls by double digits.
Although his influence with the president waxed and waned, Bannon’s standing in the Trump circle was always precarious. Among the senior advisers competing with Bannon in trying to shape Trump’s agenda, and his tone, were the president’s daughter, Ivanka, and son-in-law, Jared. Bannon pointedly voiced criticism of those in the president’s sphere whom he considered to be globalists, or liberals (or both), and the president himself plainly bristled over the early attention that Bannon got from the press (including a Time magazine cover, which is said to have particularly irked Trump).
Bannon says that his departure was voluntary, and that he’d planned it to coincide with the one-year anniversary of his joining the Trump campaign as chief executive, on August 14, 2016.
“On August 7th , I talked to Kelly and to the President, and I told them that my resignation would be effective the following Monday, on the 14th,” he said. “I’d always planned on spending one year. General Kelly has brought in a great new system, but I said it would be best. I want to get back to Breitbart.”
Bannon says that with the tumult in Charlottesville last weekend, and the political fallout since, Trump, Kelly, and he agreed to delay Bannon’s departure, but that he and Kelly agreed late this week that now was the time for Bannon to leave.
Bannon may have resigned, but it was clear from the time that Kelly became chief of staff that Bannon’s remaining time in the West Wing was going to be short. Kelly undertook a study of the West Wing’s operating system, and let it be known that he kept hearing about Bannon as a disruptive force and a source of leaks aimed at undermining his rivals. One of those, with whom Kelly is deeply in sympathy, is National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster, who clashed forcefully with Bannon over such policies as strategy for the war in Afghanistan.
It is plainly Bannon’s view that his departure is not a defeat for him personally, but for the ideology he’d urged upon the president, as reflected in Trump’s provocative inaugural address—in which he spoke of self-dealing Washington politicians, and their policies that led to the shuttered factories and broken lives of what he called “American carnage.” Bannon co-authored that speech (and privately complained that it had been toned down by West Wing moderates like Ivanka and Jared).
“Now, it’s gonna be Trump,” Bannon said. “The path forward on things like economic nationalism and immigration, and his ability to kind of move freely . . . I just think his ability to get anything done—particularly the bigger things, like the wall, the bigger, broader things that we fought for, it’s just gonna be that much harder.”
Bannon assigns blame for the thwarting of his program on “the West Wing Democrats,” but holds special disdain for the Washington establishment—especially those Republicans who have, he believes, willfully failed to provide Trump with meaningful victories.
And, he believes, things are about to get worse for Trump. “There’s about to be a jailbreak of these moderate guys on the Hill”—a stream of Republican dissent, which could become a flood.
Bannon says that he once confidently believed in the prospect of success for that version of the Trump presidency he now says is over. Asked what the turning point was, he says, “It’s the Republican establishment. The Republican establishment has no interest in Trump’s success on this. They’re not populists, they’re not nationalists, they had no interest in his program. Zero. It was a half-hearted attempt at Obamacare reform, it was no interest really on the infrastructure, they’ll do a very standard Republican version of taxes.
“What Trump ran on—border wall, where is the funding for the border wall, one of his central tenets, where have they been? Have they rallied around the Perdue-Cotton immigration bill? On what element of Trump’s program, besides tax cuts—which is going to be the standard marginal tax cut—where have they rallied to Trump’s cause? They haven’t.”
Bannon believes that those who will now try to influence Trump will hope to turn him in a sharply different direction.
“I think they’re going to try to moderate him,” he says. “I think he’ll sign a clean debt ceiling, I think you’ll see all this stuff. His natural tendency—and I think you saw it this week on Charlottesville—his actual default position is the position of his base, the position that got him elected. I think you’re going to see a lot of constraints on that. I think it’ll be much more conventional.”
But Bannon believes that Trump, with the help of Stephen K. Bannon, has already effected a lasting realignment of American politics.
As for himself, Bannon says the fight is just beginning.
“I feel jacked up,” he says. “Now I’m free. I’ve got my hands back on my weapons. Someone said, ‘it’s Bannon the Barbarian.’ I am definitely going to crush the opposition. There’s no doubt. I built a f***ing machine at Breitbart. And now I’m about to go back, knowing what I know, and we’re about to rev that machine up. And rev it up we will do.”
Bannon tells The Weekly Standard that he can be more effective without the constraints of the White House. “I can fight better on the outside. I can’t fight too many Democrats on the inside like I can on the outside.”
And, he says, Trump encouraged him to take on the Republican establishment. “I said, ‘look, I’ll focus on going after the establishment.’ He said, ‘good, I need that.’ I said, ‘look, I’ll always be here covering for you.’”