leekai 发表于 2017-4-28 19:03
大流氓不会这么想。全世界都认为朝鲜是中国的狗，不管它是不是、既然大家都认为它是、中国就得认，我家的 ...
你这也太小看大流氓了。六方会谈搞不下去的时候，中国有多少影响力早已经一目了然了。
冰蚁 发表于 2017-4-29 02:52
苏联没突击那是看了美国的面子。你以为苏联不想核打击啊。老毛那会儿大搞三线，疏散，你以为是心血来潮么 ...
你没发现你仍然在用公和南方系的谎言和逻辑来回复我吗？这些观点漏洞太多，我真不知道从何驳起。。。:P
冰蚁 发表于 2017-4-29 02:52
苏联没突击那是看了美国的面子。你以为苏联不想核打击啊。老毛那会儿大搞三线，疏散，你以为是心血来潮么 ...
讲一句难听点的话，你对对历史和国际政治的认识为零。
本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2017-4-28 23:53 编辑
天狼星 发表于 2017-4-28 20:26
你没发现你仍然在用公和南方系的谎言和逻辑来回复我吗？这些观点漏洞太多，我真不知道从何驳起。。。
...
备战备荒，大三线，苏联核打击威胁都是事实的东西。这些和中苏交恶也是直接挂钩的。和南方系有什么关系。这些都是在南方系存在之前的事实罢了。另外，想驳就好好说话，乱贴标签没意思。
冰蚁 发表于 2017-4-28 23:00
那南棒军真得过三八线了。然后中国军队卷入。三胖估计还是得被抓。南棒退回三八线。三胖有点脑子为自己小 ...
中国会允许这样的情况发生么？中国的底线就是朝鲜是我的，核不核，乱不乱是次要的，打朝鲜就是打我脸，定点清除和全面进攻是一样的。
冰蚁 发表于 2017-4-29 00:09
美朝都不可信。但是放任朝鲜核武器发展，以后核武器小型化成功，导弹技术完善，能够直接一导弹打北京，萨 ...
三胖攻击韩日还能跑到中国来留条命。攻击中国那就是亡国灭种了，连带的韩国都完蛋了。就算三胖不怕让老金家绝户也得看看别人愿不愿意跟着绝种。
本帖最后由 zilewang 于 2017-4-29 20:11 编辑
冰蚁 发表于 2017-4-29 10:59
备战备荒，大三线，苏联核打击威胁都是事实的东西。这些和中苏交恶也是直接挂钩的。和南方系有什么关系。 ...
中国允许美国斩首或外科手术核武器，先抛开政治，说说几个技术问题：
1，为什么中国自己不亲自动手？只有美国有这个军事实力吗？如果中国有这个实力，为什么不是美国配合，中国执行。
2，如果美国发起打击，朝鲜对汉城发起报复攻击，美韩联军是否会越过38线？越过38线，中国怎么办？
3，如果美国以清除逃跑的核设施为由，出去地面部队，中国怎么办？
4，如果美国扩大打击范围，以朝鲜的指挥中枢为重点攻击目标，中国怎么办？
5，如果朝鲜判断顶不住美国的攻势，学萨达姆或卡扎菲跑路，朝鲜陷入混乱，中国怎么办？
6，美韩借此以维持秩序或人道主义灾难为由，美韩联军全面接管朝鲜全境，中国怎么办？
……
这么多如果，任何一个如果都足以将中国卷入战争，而中国现在最怕的事情是什么：战争！
结论就是，从一开始就杜绝任何一个如果发生，中国最简单粗暴的方法是，坚决反对美国军事打击朝鲜，一颗炸弹都不可以掉到朝鲜境内。
MacArthur 发表于 2017-4-29 00:12
今天早晨刚刚听了NPR对TRex的采访，话讲得非常稳健，对局势理解得相当透彻。尤其是对于中国在这其中的地 ...
普京和安倍会谈也捎带上半岛局势，但总给俺一个只是“显示存在”的感觉，似乎海湖庄园会的那俩准备甩了这俩？
Trump税改方案出台记
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/29/trump-100-day-deadline-237781
President Donald Trump has dismissed the idea of measuring the success of his first 100 days in office as “ridiculous.” But the president and his top officials have made a number of startling moves this week with the deadline in mind, and Trump has privately obsessed over getting a win before the cutoff.
The last-minute moves have frustrated some of Trump’s allies, caused a scramble across his government and proved once again that decisions are made by one man on his whims — and often with an eye to his media coverage.
To his supporters, it looks like the kind of action Trump promised as a candidate. “That’s how a CEO makes decisions,” said Rep. Chris Collins, a New York Republican.
Trump’s promise last Friday to deliver a tax plan within five days startled no one more than Gary Cohn, his chief economic adviser writing the plan. Not a single word of a plan was on paper, several administration officials said, and Treasury officials worked all weekend to draft a one-page summary of his principles with a news conference the president demanding the action.
“The reason your head is spinning on this is that the plan isn’t even written yet,” one senior White House official said this week as conflicting details emerged about what would be in the plan. “This was all about doing something in the first 100 days and really it’s doing the process backwards.”
When White House officials demanded last week a health care vote by the 100-day mark, Speaker Paul Ryan was traveling in Europe and taken aback. The leader of the House of Representatives wasn’t in on the plan, had no desire to vote this week and feared it wasn’t even possible. No one even knew what the bill would say because the language had not been written.
“It was totally insane,” one senior GOP aide said. “It made no sense. There was no reason to say a vote was happening this week.”
A number of White House officials only learned of the president’s plan to sign an executive order removing the United States from the North American Free Trade Agreement — and tout it during a 100-day rally in Pennsylvania — after it appeared in news reports. It was going to be “another accomplishment of our 100 days,” a senior official said. “The president wanted to do it this week.”
The looming 100-day marker has sent the White House into overdrive this week. Senior administration officials — chief of staff Reince Priebus, son-in-law Jared Kushner, legislative affairs head Marc Short, chief strategist Steve Bannon and Cohn — have held late-night sessions with reporters to sell the 100 days. Trump repeatedly asked aides for ideas with the marker in mind and has demanded plans for the event and lists of his accomplishments to highlight every single day of the week, administration officials said.
Trump ordered an event with Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin based on the 100-day marker, a person familiar with the planning said, leaving staff to rush and make it happen. It often takes weeks to plan an event.
The fear inside the West Wing, these people said, was that bad news coverage could lead to a staff shake-up, and many live with varying degrees of fear of losing their jobs. Priebus, several administration officials say, has been particularly concerned about the marker and the resulting news coverage.
The White House, which didn’t respond for comment, has tried to depict a busy and impatient president who is popular to his supporters because he promised to demand results. While the tax plan is nowhere near ready, the health care vote didn’t happen and Trump ended the week on NAFTA where he began, the president received news coverage of a busy week — and was talking about policies that were potentially moving instead of congressional failures or investigations into ties between Russia and Trump campaign officials.
“I think the paper-pushers may have a system, but he will override the system,” said Trump adviser Roger Stone. “He’s the decision maker.”
Still, aides described the lead-up as mad-dash, even by the typical Trump White House standards, with more focus on optics than substance.
In the case of NAFTA repeal, director of the White House National Trade Council Peter Navarro submitted the Executive Order to the staff secretary on Tuesday. The staff secretary traditionally circulates the policy for review to relevant decision makers including cabinet secretaries and others within the White House who want to weigh in, according to a White House official.
While it’s typical for the staff secretary to kick off the final stages of the decision making process, the process moved at rapid speed, with the President intent on signing the Executive Order just four days later on his 100th day, giving his Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross little time to weigh in. Eventually, Trump was talked out of the move by nervous advisers and foreign leaders, who described the basics of the problem if he ended it.
“I was going to terminate NAFTA two or three days from now,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Thursday.
Over on Capitol Hill this week, moderate Republicans and conservatives worried about legislative text — and feared even more would lose their health care coverage, which could cost them their seats. The Congressional Budget Office hadn’t scored the proposal — it previously said 24 million would lose health care coverage — and this plan was likely to be worse, legislators worried.
Priebus, who publicly said it was unfair to expect the administration to vote quickly, repeatedly told aides there needed to be a quick vote, administration officials say, even though Ryan was not in a similar hurry. Some West Wing officials even pondered the idea of having the vote on Saturday — a signature accomplishment on the 100-day mark. Legislators tend to head home on the weekends.
“Their order was vote, vote, vote,” one Republican legislator said. A senior administration official, asked why the White House was rushing the vote, responded: “ I can’t wait for the 100-day shit to be over.”
Senior officials in the White House and Treasury wanted to keep working behind the scenes to create a more fully-baked tax plan that would get support from Capitol Hill Republicans. Then early this summer they could roll-out a detailed blueprint that would address concerns from House Speaker Paul Ryan and other fiscal conservatives worried about blowing up the deficit.
“Nobody wanted to do this now. We weren’t ready to do this now. But we weren’t given any choice,” said a second senior official close to the tax reform process.
Repeatedly peppered for details on how they would avoid blowing up the deficit, what income brackets the new individual rates would apply to and what rate they would charge companies to bring money back to the U.S., Cohn and Mnuchin had no answers. Instead they repeatedly promised more details to come at a later time.
Cohn even wound up snapping at a reporter for pressing for “micro-details” and not accepting the broad brush statements of aspirational goals. The result was widespread dismissal of the entire event by economic commentators.
Jason Furman, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, said the rollout out was the exact opposite of the way the previous administration put out pages worth of details on the Affordable Care Act, taking some of the pressure off Congress.
“The one pager the White House did was about as useful to the tax reform process as some random summer project of a Capitol Hill intern,” Furman said. “This is doing the process backwards with the White House doing the easy part and leaving the hard part all to Congress. And it makes it even less likely that anything ever gets done.”
Even Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, seen in the administration as one of the president’s staunchest defenders, was irritated, according to a person who spoke with him. Mnuchin had planned a trip to California this week, a White House official said, and left on Thursday, one day after the plan was announced.
A spokesman for Mnuchin said: ”The Secretary was very pleased that the President agreed to let us announce the plan this week.”
本帖最后由 冰蚁 于 2017-4-29 15:55 编辑
zilewang 发表于 2017-4-29 07:09
中国允许美国斩首或外科手术核武器，先抛开政治，说说几个技术问题：
1，为什么中国自己不亲自动手？只有 ...
你的问题前面我回过一些，以前其它的帖子里也提过。
1） 中国不主动承担独自全部解决朝鲜问题成本，也没必要主动去撕毁中朝盟约。
3）4）6）应该是不允许。中国的话还是管点用的。
5）长期混乱不可能。朝鲜和伊拉克，利比亚非常不同。
2）那只有中国迅速出兵，在战事扩大化之前消弭战事。我以前在另外一个帖子里提过，火中取栗。关键就是要快。还有就是，通常你越怕什么，什么就越来搞你。中国是要发展，要和平环境，但是不要因为这个就搞得处处热点，这个要学老毛。金胖家族早已和中国离心离德，成为死敌。没必要维护。
这个话题就先这样吧。不如静看发展。中国政府提的双暂停是不会有人听的。脸更是被三胖打得啪啪的。从目前表现看，金三对美国的定点清除颇有点顾忌。这种人也就是值得大棒伺候。
South Korea says U.S. reaffirms it will pay THAAD costs
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-idUSKBN17W04T
我上面说了，这就是Trump的谈判风格。表面上很咋呼，净放狠话，对方稍微一强硬，接着就退缩让步。他这招让人识破以后，无论是国内还是国际问题都越来越难办事。
tanis 发表于 2017-4-28 23:13
不敢选冰姨做总统~~~~
刚看到新闻，最新通过的预算，NIH的funding增加了20亿。你该高兴了吧。
现在看来，至少在国内政策，Trump就是瞎咋呼，连共和党都不把他的话当回事。
Dracula 发表于 2017-5-1 20:17
刚看到新闻，最新通过的预算，NIH的funding增加了20亿。你该高兴了吧。
现在看来，至少在国内政策，Trum ...
送了一口气。搜了一下，nsf貌似没有多提。我估计没变化。
貌似Trump提议的削减nih，EPA之类的都被当做空气了。
tanis 发表于 2017-5-1 22:11
送了一口气。搜了一下，nsf貌似没有多提。我估计没变化。
貌似Trump提议的削减nih，EPA之类的都被当做 ...
我查了一下，NSF的funding是7.5 billion，比2016年多900万，基本上不变。
https://appropriations.house.gov/uploadedfiles/05.01.17_fy_2017_omnibus_-_commerce_justice_science_-_summary.pdf
tanis 发表于 2017-5-1 22:11
送了一口气。搜了一下，nsf貌似没有多提。我估计没变化。
貌似Trump提议的削减nih，EPA之类的都被当做 ...
这是华盛顿邮报对预算的报道
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/05/01/daily-202-eight-ways-trump-got-rolled-in-his-first-budget-negotiation/590687f2e9b69b3a72331f09/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_daily202-10a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.9496de60902c
民主党这次得到的之多，他们自己都有点不敢想象。就是希拉里上台，我估计预算也就是这样了。
Dracula 发表于 2017-4-30 05:58
South Korea says U.S. reaffirms it will pay THAAD costs
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkore ...
"What I told our South Korean counterpart is until any renegotiation, that the deals in place, we’ll adhere to our word," McMaster told “Fox News Sunday.”
他出来诈唬已经不够了，需要国家安全顾问接着出来诈唬
holycow 发表于 2017-5-2 00:32
"What I told our South Korean counterpart is until any renegotiation, that the deals in place, we ...
我觉得这是McMaster给Trump台阶下。什么时候再次谈判都根本没期呢，更不要说有结果了。几个星期以后，大家就把这件事给忘了，不会有人追究Trump的威胁有没有兑现。
挺不错的一篇文章。
Think Trump is an authoritarian? Look at his actions, not his words
Corey Robin
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/donald-trump-authoritarian-look-actions-not-words?
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/0ba529397fd734048bb749ace5d428767d682c65/0_314_4717_2831/master/4717.jpg?w=1225&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=46078490d0e44ea79e188318bbd23f8e
A wise psychoanalyst once told me, “Stop looking at what you’re saying, look at what you’re doing.” If only journalists applied the same rule to Donald Trump.
On Friday night, Trump complained that he was being stymied by “archaic rules” in the House of Representatives and the Senate and warned “maybe at some point we’re going to have to take those rules on.”
Aaron Blake, a journalist at The Washington Post, was quick to diagnose the statement:
Now Trump is talking about consolidating his power…Whether this is just him blowing off steam or signaling what lies ahead, it’s significant. Because it suggests a president, yet again, who doesn’t agree with his own powers being limited or even questioned. Remember when senior policy adviser Stephen Miller declared “the powers of the president to protect our country are very substantial and will not be questioned?” This is more of that kind of attitude. He wants more power — and he wants it quickly. It’s not difficult to connect this to his past admiration for authoritarian leaders, and these comments are likely to give Democrats (and even some in the GOP establishment) plenty of heartburn. This is a demonstrated pattern for him, for all the reasons listed at the top of this post.
This kind of narrative of Trump the authoritarian is popular among journalists like Vox’s Ezra Klein and academics like Yale historian Timothy Snyder. It’s the background mood music of a lot of liberal commentary in the US. But it depends on paying almost exclusive attention to what Trump says rather than what he does.
If Trump were actually serious about consolidating his power, he might start by, oh, I don’t know, consolidating his power. Instead, this is what he’s been doing, or not doing, since he’s been in office:
The Senate has confirmed 26 of Trump’s picks for his Cabinet and other top posts. But for 530 other vacant senior-level jobs requiring Senate confirmation, the president has advanced just 37 nominees...
Trump, in other words, has failed to fill 85% of the positions in the executive branch that he needs to fill in order to run the government to his specifications. It’s a strange kind of authoritarian who fails, as the first order of business, to seize control of the state apparatus: not because there’s been pushback from the Senate but because, in most instances, he hasn’t even tried.
Ah, but Trump’s liberal and left critics will respond, that failure to fill key positions is all part of the White House’s master plan. Back in February, Steve Bannon, Trump’s top strategist whose star lately has fallen, claimed that the administration’s goal was “the deconstruction of the administrative state.” As Bannon made clear, that was just a fancy way of describing the longstanding Republican goal of gutting rules and regulations the business class hates. What better way to do that than simply not staffing the agencies that are tasked with enforcing those rules and regulations?
There are two problems with this theory. First, Trump has failed to fill positions in departments and agencies he actually wishes to empower and expand. He’s only filled one out of 53 positions in the Pentagon, two out of 14 in the Department of Homeland Security, one out of 7 positions in the intelligence agencies, one of out 28 positions in the Treasury Department, and almost none of the key positions in the Justice Department having to do with terrorism, drug crime prosecution, and the like.
Second, many of those positions are not empty. Until Trump appoints someone to fill them, they will remain mostly occupied by holdovers from the Obama Administration – who will continue to enforce the thousands of rules and regulations Obama passed and Trump hates.
Though Trump has had limited success overturning some of Obama’s rules through an obscure piece of legislation, the real work of deregulation and undoing Obama-era rules will require a much heavier lift that Trump is not yet in a position to execute.
Despite the fact that Trump, whose party is in control of all the elected branches of the federal government, has lost virtually every legislative battle he’s waged, and backed down from virtually every bluff he’s made, the faith in Trump’s power – not in his probity or purposes but in his ability to dominate the political scene – dies hard. And nowhere harder, it seems, than on the left.
In March, I was on a panel of liberal scholars and writers where it was the universal consensus that Trump had an almost intuitive grasp of and control over public opinion. As evidenced by his tweets, which were held to be the invisible puppet strings of the American mind. This was not long after Trump’s travel ban had been overturned by the courts and Trump had responded by tweeting his contempt for and hostility to the judges involved.
It seemed like the classic demagogue’s move – whipping up the masses against elite judges – so there was some nervousness on the panel about what Trump might do to bring these recalcitrant judges to heel. (Trump has since repeated that charge against the judiciary, and his critics have repeated their concerns: now, Snyder says, “it’s pretty much inevitable” that Trump will declare a state of emergency and try to seize full control of the government.)
As I pointed out to my co-panelists, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was rebuffed by the judiciary, he tried to overhaul the Supreme Court with his infamous Court-packing scheme. Now that was an assertion of executive power. In the face of judges frustrating his agenda, all Trump managed was to emit a plaintive tweet promising to appeal their ruling: “I’ll see you in court.” Even that, Trump couldn’t be bothered, in the end, to do. Instead, he withdrew his appeal, revised his travel ban, and found his ban back in court. Where it remains.
But even more important, Trump’s Svengali-like control of American public opinion is belied by the fact that most of America has disapproved of him for most for most of the time he’s been in office. In March, moreover, Trump saw precipitous drops in support from his base: Republicans, white people, and men.
With every day he’s in office, fewer and fewer people believe that he’ll keep his promises, that he’s strong and decisive, and that he can bring about the changes the country needs. And as the Wall Street Journal recently reported, despite Trump’s consistent opposition to immigration and free trade, public support for those positions has gotten consistently stronger – record highs in the case of free trade, and in the case of immigration, the highest it’s been in over a decade – since Trump came into office.
There’s little doubt that Trump’s administration has pursued policies designed to make life crueler and harder for immigrants, people of color and women. There’s also little doubt that some in his administration, particularly his Attorney General Jefferson Sessions, will be successful in doing so.
But with the exception of immigration, most of these aims are longstanding Republican goals. They reflect no peculiar authoritarianism on Trump’s part; they’re just the revanchist stock-in-trade of the American right, which any Republican president would pursue.
When it comes to advancing the singular potency of the presidency – whether that means controlling public opinion, consolidating the power of the executive branch, or dominating Congress – Trump has been an abject failure. Whatever fantasies he (or the media or his critics) may have about the presidency abound, the last 100 days have shown that Trump has no realistic agenda for, or steady interest in, consolidating power.
“Strong leader” is a slogan for Trump, a rhetoric, a performance, but that’s about it. Trump has always thought his words were more real than reality. He’s always believed his own bullshit. It’s time his liberal critics stopped believing it too.
Dracula 发表于 2017-5-1 12:35
我觉得这是McMaster给Trump台阶下。什么时候再次谈判都根本没期呢，更不要说有结果了。几个星期以后，大 ...
有同感。
不过看大选情势，亲北派文在寅很可能上台，thaad 有可能撤掉......
海天 发表于 2017-5-2 23:35
有同感。
不过看大选情势，亲北派文在寅很可能上台，thaad 有可能撤掉...... ...
撤不掉，不过能和朝鲜缓和关系的话，对中国时间上就有利多了。