晨枫 发表于 2017-3-22 05:35
他不就是个高级传声筒嘛，那么认真干什么？
Rex Tillerson关于他为什么要当国务卿。
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7fNi-3XQAAjaKN.jpg:large
http://ijr.com/2017/03/814687-trumps-diplomat/
Dracula 发表于 2017-3-21 21:40
Rex Tillerson关于他为什么要当国务卿。
会不会是特朗普对那些体制里的人一个也看不上、不放心，只好用一个体制外的人，就像老邓当年用老江一样？
晨枫 发表于 2017-3-21 20:33
会不会是特朗普对那些体制里的人一个也看不上、不放心，只好用一个体制外的人，就像老邓当年用老江一样？ ...
这篇文章是T-Rex钦点的唯一随行御用媒体的专访，当然是他想放什么话就通过这个专访放出来。
他事先一无所知的话，Rice和Gates推荐他干什么？{:190:} 现在看看货不对路，就“我从来没想过要这份工作了”{:191:}
holycow 发表于 2017-3-21 23:41
这篇文章是T-Rex钦点的唯一随行御用媒体的专访，当然是他想放什么话就通过这个专访放出来。
他事先一无 ...
哈哈，那就是我先前就猜到的：他以为真是去当国务卿的，没想到只是个超级传话筒，有点不想干了。Exxon那里已经3亿遣散费拿好了，够用几辈子了，到乡下抱孙子去吧。{:187:}
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-4-3 06:11 编辑
Trump接受金融时报采访。
https://www.ft.com/content/9ae777ea-17ac-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87
摘抄我觉得挺有意思的几段。
这一段是关于同中国的贸易。
Are you going to equalise tariffs?
I don’t want to talk about tariffs yet, perhaps the next time we meet. So I don’t want to talk about tariffs yet. But you used the word equalise. That is a very good word because they are not equalised. If you used a word other than tariff, it is not an equal. You know when you talk about, when you talk about currency manipulation, when you talk about devaluations, they are world champions. And our country hasn’t had a clue, they haven’t had a clue. The past administration hasn’t had and many administrations — I don’t want to say only Obama; this has gone on for many years — They haven’t had a clue. But I do.
这一段是关于美国国内政治。
Can you cut a deal on tax reform this year, and what would the terms be?
Well, I don’t want to talk about when and I don’t want to talk about timing. We will have a very massive and very strong tax reform. But I am not going to talk about when . . .
Right now I am working very much on the . . . You know that we didn’t take a vote but with healthcare . . .
Because you didn’t want to lose.
Yeah, I don’t lose. I don’t like to lose. But that wasn’t a definitive day. They are negotiating as we speak. I don’t know if you know. They are negotiating right now. There was no reason to take a vote. I said, ‘Don’t take a vote,’ and we will see what happens. But one way or the other, I promised the people great healthcare. We are going to have great healthcare in this country. Now, it will be in one form or another. It will be a repeal and replace of Obamacare which is the deal that is being negotiated now. And if we don’t get the . . . Freedom Caucus there that would be fine. They’re friends of mine. Many of them have already left, and many of them as you know have already given us their vote. But when you have zero Democrats, zero, you need close to 100 per cent of the Republicans.
Might you actually try to get some Democrats in future?
Well I will get the Democrats if I go the second way. The second way, which I hate to see, then the Freedom Caucus loses so big and I hate to see that, because . . . our plan is going to be a very good plan. When I say our plan, not phase one just: phase one, two and three added up is a great plan . . . If we don’t get what we want, we will make a deal with the Democrats and we will have in my opinion not as good a form of healthcare, but we are going to have a very good form of healthcare and it will be a bipartisan form of healthcare.
关于tweets和欧盟
When I talk to CEOs in this country . . . half of them are saying ‘yes, this is great, we have confidence coming back, and half of it is ‘God, what happens if he tweets about us and our stock goes down’.
Without the tweets, I wouldn’t be here . . . I have over 100m between Facebook, Twitter, Instagram. Over 100m. I don’t have to go to the fake media.
Do you regret any of your tweets?
I don’t regret anything, because there is nothing you can do about it. You know if you issue hundreds of tweets, and every once in a while you have a clinker, that’s not so bad. Now my last tweet, you know the one that you are talking about perhaps, was the one about being in quotes wire tapped, meaning surveilled. Guess what, it is turning out to be true . . . I predicted Brexit.
Do you think other countries will follow the UK out of the EU?
I think Brexit is very good for the UK, it is going to be very good for UK. I would have thought when it happened that more would follow, but I really think the European Union is getting their act together. It could be a very good thing for both.
So it’s an antidote, not a virus?
It is a very interesting thing. If you would have asked me that the day after the election . . . I would have said, ‘Yeah, it will start to come apart’. But they have done a very good job and — I am meeting with them very soon — they have done a very good job in bringing it back together . . . I had a great meeting with Chancellor Merkel. I had a great meeting with her, I really liked her. She said the same thing to me. I spoke to her two days ago. She said the same thing to me, we had a great meeting and the press doesn’t get it.
金融时报上的读者评论，有的觉得就是非洲那些banana republic靠政变上台的独裁者可能水平也比这高。
Dracula 发表于 2017-4-2 14:20
Trump接受金融时报采访。
https://www.ft.com/content/9ae777ea-17ac-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87
怎么觉得他就是在babbling？毫无实质性内容。在大选时，他说道推翻obamacare、代之以新的健保，it will be so easy，trust me。以前还觉得他可能有一些惊人之计，现在看来可能是空城计。美国惨了。今天Bloomberg登了一篇，Remember When Trump Said He Saved 1,100 Jobs at a Carrier Plant?，挺有意思。这样的事情多的话，他就要开始遭到蓝领的反弹了。
晨枫 发表于 2017-4-3 05:46
怎么觉得他就是在babbling？毫无实质性内容。在大选时，他说道推翻obamacare、代之以新的健保，it will b ...
我估计他就不知道tariff equalization是怎么一回事（中国是发展中国家，在世贸组织协议下，对美国征收的关税要高于美国对中国的关税），他的那段回答就是胡扯，想蒙混过关，我的学生考试时遇到完全不会的问题时，有时也用这招。
催更，吹更，不要太监，不要挖坑！！！！！
小书童 发表于 2017-4-2 20:54
催更，吹更，不要太监，不要挖坑！！！！！
请病假啦！{:192:}
本帖最后由 Dracula 于 2017-4-7 03:40 编辑
Steve Bannon Calls Jared Kushner a ‘Cuck’ and ‘Globalist’ Behind His Back
Donald Trump’s two closest aides are fighting “nonstop” and often “face-to-face,” officials say — and it’s even uglier in private.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/04/06/steve-bannon-calls-jared-kushner-a-cuck-and-globalist-behind-his-back.html
这是其中的几段。
Donald Trump’s chief strategist Stephen Bannon has called the president’s senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner a “cuck” and a “globalist” during a time of high tension between the two top aides, several Trump administration officials told The Daily Beast.
The fighting between Kushner and Bannon has been “nonstop” in recent weeks, according to sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. It’s been an “open secret” that Bannon and Kushner often clash “face-to-face,” according to senior officials.
One official said Bannon has lately complained about Kushner trying to “shiv him and push him out the door” and likened him to a fifth column in the White House.
“ recently vented to us about Jared being a ‘globalist’ and a ‘cuck’…He actually said ‘cuck,’ as in “cuckservative,’” the administration official told The Daily Beast.
"Steve thinks Jared is worse than a Democrat, basically," another official close to Bannon said. " has a very specific vision for what he believes, and what he shares with Trump. And he has for a long time now seen as a major obstacle to achieving that."
However, it’s clear that Kushner has been expanding his reach and level of influence in Trump’s core circle of advisers, and that the two men are essentially working against one another as they attempt to keep the president’s ear and affections.
“I love a gunfight,” Bannon told his associates and allies since Wednesday, according to Axios.
The Times also reported that “Bannon’s Svengali-style reputation has chafed on a president who sees himself as the West Wing’s only leading man,” and that “several associates said the president had quietly expressed annoyance over the credit Mr. Bannon had received for setting the agenda—and Mr. Trump was not pleased by the ‘President Bannon’ puppet-master theme promoted by magazines, late-night talk shows and Twitter.”
A Republican source close to Trump told The Daily Beast confirmed this level of insecurity over Bannon’s reputation coming from the president, and mentioned that the president was “irked” after catching a glimpse of a recent cold-open on Saturday Night Live.
(据有的解释，这里的globalist其实coded word，是特指Kushner是犹太人。Bannon属于极右，骨子里对犹太人其实很敌视。Bannon的老家Breitbart的读者评论就说的平白，直接管他叫Jewish Kushner。现在两个人这么水火不容，我估计Bannon在白宫也待不了多久了。对我来说，Kushner比Bannon强，但就目前来说，我还没看出他在能力上有什么出众的地方。)
PS：刚才又看了纽约时报的一篇文章，Bannon被踢出NSC，好像是McMaster向Trump当面提出来的，但是背后是Kushner撑腰支持。
晨枫 发表于 2017-4-3 12:12
请病假啦！
我还纳闷近期如此之多热点，怎不见晨司机雄论。原来龙体有恙。祝早日康复！{:237:}{:237:}{:237:}
晨大，这个系列断尾了？？？？？？
Steve Bannon看来在白宫待不了几天了。
Trump won’t definitively say he still backs Bannon
Washington’s rumor mill is working overtime on the fate of presidential aide Steve Bannon, who is said to be at the center of the rampant White House infighting. When I asked the president Tuesday afternoon if he still has confidence in Bannon, who took over the campaign in mid-August, I did not get a definitive yes.
“I like Steve, but you have to remember he was not involved in my campaign until very late,” Trump said. “I had already beaten all the senators and all the governors, and I didn’t know Steve. I’m my own strategist and it wasn’t like I was going to change strategies because I was facing crooked Hillary.”
He ended by saying, “Steve is a good guy, but I told them to straighten it out or I will.”
http://nypost.com/2017/04/11/trump-wont-definitively-say-he-still-backs-bannon/
我还看到别的消息，Trump现在正在找Reince Priebus的继任，他应该也干不了几天了。未来的白宫会被Jared Kushner和Ivanka夫妇完全掌控。
本帖最后由 holycow 于 2017-4-12 16:00 编辑
Dracula 发表于 2017-4-12 09:29
Steve Bannon看来在白宫待不了几天了。
Trump won’t definitively say he still backs Bannon
“I do my own policy, I’m my own strategist. I don’t have — I have people that I respect, I have people that I listen to, I have many people and then I make the decision. I’m just saying that is a guy who works for me, he’s a good guy. But, I make my own decision. I don’t have people making decisions.”
-- WSJ interview today
I'm my own strategist，那chief strategist就没有必要存在了...
holycow 发表于 2017-4-13 07:58
-- WSJ interview today
那篇文章里，Trump还说中国不是currency manipulator，支持Export–Import Bank ，支持北约，考虑提名Yellen继续担任美联储主席。在外交政策上也不提America First了，而是要建设一个更美好的世界。他现在转向也有点太快了，和希拉里的政策立场相差其实已经不多了，我都觉得有些不适应。只是不知道这能持续多久，几个月后会不会又要变次脸。而且我看他接受采访，初尝下令使用武力的权力很有些high，特别的兴奋。现在国内政策方面他非常不顺利，不仅是医疗改革，税制改革现在看来也很可能搞不成。在军事上他尝到甜头以后，过几天心血来潮，把美国带进战争，我觉得可能性也是有的。
Dracula 发表于 2017-4-6 13:07
Steve Bannon Calls Jared Kushner a ‘Cuck’ and ‘Globalist’ Behind His Back
Donald Trump’s two cl ...
相比起来，Kushner算是produce的，比如美中关系，Bannon到现在为止produce的都是负资产，尤其是禁穆令，在关键的医保改革上也没有拿出可操作的东西来，留他何用？
Dracula 发表于 2017-4-12 11:29
Steve Bannon看来在白宫待不了几天了。
Trump won’t definitively say he still backs Bannon
为什么Reince Priebus也失宠了呢，因为禁穆令和医改失败？
刚看到的，挺不错的一篇文章。现在把Trump和Carter相类比，都已经变得有点cliched 了。
Donald Trump is heading for a do-nothing presidency
http://nordic.businessinsider.com/trump-do-nothing-presidency-2017-4?r=US&IR=T
http://nordic.businessinsider.com/contentassets/9cf1fe4589af440da05c867fea640bcd/58f622d6c75d4a26008b50b0.jpg?preset=article-image
"George W. Bush, but racist." That's what Jonathan Chait of New York Magazine says President Donald Trump is turning into, as he abandons some of his more idiosyncratic campaign positions and starts listening to Republican Party regulars who favor foreign wars and tax cuts for the rich.
This comparison is unfair - to George W. Bush. Bush accomplished things, whether you liked those things or not.
I agree with Chait that Trump is failing to promote and advance a policy agenda of his own. But the likely result is that he will do very little, not that he will achieve what a conventional Republican president would achieve, if given a Republican Congress to work with.
I think Trump is so inept, he will be unable to get a major tax cut out of a Republican Congress. And I certainly hope I am right that he is too lazy to start a ground war.
If Trump does not get us all killed, I expect his presidency will look surprisingly unimportant in retrospect.
Trump's weaknesses will usually lead to nothing happening
Most policy issues present Trump with three possible policy actions: A standard Republican thing, a quirky "Trumpist" thing, or nothing. In most areas, the smart money should be on "nothing."
In support of his Trump-as-Bush hypothesis, Chait writes:
"Trump's pledge not to cut Medicaid while replacing Obamacare with a terrific plan that would include 'insurance for everybody,' with better coverage than they have now, turned into endorsement of a conventional Republican plan that would cut hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicaid and throw tens of millions of people off their insurance."
Yes, but remember where this landed: With Congress passing nothing. The implosion of the AHCA has left Trump with Barack Obama's healthcare policy, not George Bush's. Trump healthcare policy change: nothing.
Let's look where else this president is going nowhere fast.
Taxes
Since the president can't decide whether to admit healthcare reform is dead or not, tax reform is now supposed to get pushed back to make space for another doomed try on healthcare, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin admitting the administration's August goal for tax changes will be missed.
Republicans in Congress still have no agreement for a vision on taxes, and the White House doesn't have a plan of its own. Trump has mused about the possibility of working with Democrats on taxes, but they'll be reluctant to hand him any victories and have settled on the line that they can't change the tax code until we've seen Trump's tax returns, because otherwise we won't know if the deal is designed to benefit him.
Tax reform dies for all sorts of good reasons, and this administration looks even less organized on the issue than those who have failed to reform the tax code in the past. My bet on a Trump tax legacy: nothing.
The budget
Last month, the White House circulated a Trumpist "skinny budget," with ideas like sharply cutting spending on the National Institutes of Health and the State Department to fund military expansion and construction of a border wall. Congress is preparing to summarily ignore this budget.
But they're not going to take what you might call a "conventional Republican" approach either, like, say, cutting food stamps to fund military expansion.
The spending bill to keep the government open past April 28 will need to get 60 votes in the Senate, which means it will need Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's approval, which likely means an increase in domestic spending to go along with any increase in military spending, certainty for threatened Obamacare subsidies, and little-to-no money for a border wall.
Of course, Trump could veto such a spending bill, but Axios reports the White House is in "no mood" for the government shutdown that would ensue. Likely federal spending outlook: nothing terribly different than if Hillary Clinton had won.
Trade
Trump is backing off his heated trade rhetoric, says China is not a currency manipulator, and even says he's willing to let China off easy on trade if they're helpful with North Korea. A Trumpist remaking of American trade policy is looking less and less likely.
But what would a "conventional Republican" trade policy look like? Probably the pursuit of multilateral trade agreements that Republican presidents used to favor until they became associated with Obama.
Do you really think Trump will negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU? It seems a lot more likely to me that he will do nothing.
Foreign policy
In his first 100 days, Trump has softened toward China, somewhat hardened toward Russia, flip-flopped on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and re-endorsed NATO. These shifts do as much to put him in line with Obama as with Bush.
It's possible that won't stay true. Trump's national security adviser is, according to a report from Eli Lake at Bloomberg, developing a plan for tens of thousands of ground troops to fight ISIS in Syria.
As Chait writes, such an invasion would constitute a remarkable, Bush-like turn toward neoconservatism, if Trump were actually to pursue it. But I am skeptical that he will do so.
Trump has, so far, not demonstrated the attention span for a ground war. A man who figured out it was best to rent his name and let other people deal with the messy business of actual high-rise construction will probably get the logic of launching the occasional airstrike and leaving most of the ground fighting to proxy forces.
I might be wrong - and future external events could push Trump into a ground war somewhere, just as they could with any other president. But so far, the president's main foreign policy departures from Obama are (1) offending a bunch of foreign leaders, and (2) launching one airstrike against Assad. This looks more like "nothing" than "Neocon" to me.
The limited areas where Trump means change
Trump's appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court definitely mattered. This appointment was conventional, but not a surprise or a breach of any Trumpist promises. Trump issued an explicit list of whom he might appoint to the court before being elected, and the list was vetted to please conventional conservatives.
With Trump, it's always a good idea to get it in writing, and they did.
The other obvious place where Trump already matters is immigration. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has clearly stepped up enforcement, and some people who would have been held harmless under Obama are being deported.
Is this a "conventional Republican" policy course? Mitt Romney probably would have done something similar, but there are a lot of establishment Republicans in Washington who would prefer a more lax immigration policy.
Trump's Justice Department may have significant effects, by changing its emphasis in overseeing police departments and voting rights. The latter moves will be in line with "conventional Republicanism"; the former ones run counter to incipient Republican enthusiasm for criminal justice reform, which Trump and his attorney general reject.
Trump's other significant policy accomplishments so far consist mostly of laws he has signed under the Congressional Review Act. This law allows Congress to overturn, by simple majority, regulations issued late in a departing president's administration.
These laws will affect the cleanliness of streams near coal mines, and will allow Internet Service Providers to sell user data - though, from the breathless reaction, you might not realize they're reversing regulations that either were not yet effective or only recently became effective. That is, all these fearsome laws have done is to restore the Obama-era status quo, circa 2015.
Bigger reversals of Obama-era policies that Trump might hope to do with his executive power - like neuter Dodd-Frank and the Clean Power Plan - will require him to get past bureaucratic and judicial roadblocks. I wouldn't bet on Trump succeeding bigly in these areas soon.
A presidency does not have to be important
The AHCA failed for a fundamental reason: Like a lot of conventional Republican ideas, it was very unpopular.
The thumbnail version of the AHCA was that it cut Medicaid to pay for tax cuts for the rich. It would take a president with a lot of political capital, political skill, and ideological commitment to shove something like that through Congress.
Trump has none of those three, a problem that will repeat with other unpopular, conventional Republican policies he might try to pass.
Trump's lack of his own unique policy vision, plus his lack of the resources and conviction he would need to impose a conventional Republican policy vision, will add up to him doing little beyond what he must do to keep the lights on: Sign spending bills, raise the debt limit, respond to foreign crises, appear at the Easter Egg Roll.
Not all presidents have a major legacy. Warren Harding wasn't important; neither was Gerald Ford or Jimmy Carter.
I remain worried that a foreign crisis will be foisted on Trump, and that his mishandling of it will get us all killed in a nuclear war. If that happens, his presidency will be very important.
But if it doesn't, I don't see Trump posting a lot of "wins." I see him making Carter look dynamic and accomplished by comparison.
晨枫 发表于 2017-4-17 13:20
为什么Reince Priebus也失宠了呢，因为禁穆令和医改失败？
老川当总统，其实是真的黄袍加身，不得不当，他本人应该根本没这个计划，来选举就是攒人气的。
当到现在，他应该明白自己什么都干不成，还得担心会不会被人算计，秋后算账什么的。现在很明显，他回到正道了，就是和过往历史人物一样，只信亲人，但是儿子不中用，就信女儿女婿，现在就是要让女儿女婿大胆地干，最好能混上参议员，这样以后才好保他，保家族利益。所以现在明显女婿的权力很大，老川也不怎么干其他的了，只要谁给女婿挡路，就怼谁。
老川周边的人也看明白了，都开始自己找出路，不会再热心干事了。
晨枫 发表于 2017-3-22 21:03
哈哈，那就是我先前就猜到的：他以为真是去当国务卿的，没想到只是个超级传话筒，有点不想干了。Exxon那 ...
晨大或圣牛大能不能给解释一下美国10艘航母怎么仅能动用2-3艘是什么鬼？！